000
AXNT20 KNHC 270349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Mar 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the 
waters offshore of northeast Florida by Sat morning, and reach 
from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning before dissipating on 
Mon. Strong NE winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and 
rough to very rough seas will follow the front through early Sun.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and continues 
southwestward to 00N21W. The ITCZ extends from 00N21W to 02S46W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 06N
between 10W and 35W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic continues to
extend a surface ridge across the Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to 
SE winds prevail across the basin with 2-4 ft seas as detected by 
recent satellite altimeter data. Winds may pulse to locally fresh 
speeds off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, in association with
the diurnal surface trough currently analyzed along the western 
coast of the Peninsula. A trough analyzed along the Gulf Coast of 
Florida is producing a few showers.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist over the NE 
Gulf through late Fri. The trough over the Bay of Campeche will 
support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western 
coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through early 
next week. The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf 
early Sat morning, reach the southeast Gulf by Sun morning, and 
move southeast of the basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E 
winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over 
the eastern Gulf Sat night through early Mon. The pressure 
gradient will remain strong enough to sustain fresh to strong east
winds across the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida 
through the middle of the next week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin 
and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trades
in the south-central Caribbean, including within the Gulf of
Venezuela. Seas are 7-9 ft with these winds, mainly offshore the
coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds and 
4-7 ft seas prevail across the basin. NE winds are locally fresh
within the Windward Passage and off the southern tip of
Hispaniola, per the latest satellite scatterometer data. Scattered
showers and tstorms are noted with a coastal trough in the Gulf of
Honduras.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with 
the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and 
moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia through early next week. 
Looking ahead, high pressure will follow a strong cold front 
moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh
to strong NE winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the
Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from Sat night 
through the early part of next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING.

Two surface troughs are analyzed in the western Atlantic, with
minimal meteorological impacts. High pressure prevails across the
tropical Atlantic, anchored by a high centered in the western
Atlantic north of 31N. Tonight's satellite scatterometer data
indicates gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with
satellite altimeter data supporting an analysis of 4-7 ft seas in
open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, aside from the GALE WARNING, a 
ridge will dominate the forecast waters through late Fri 
supporting gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas. 
Strong high pressure in the wake of the next cold front will cause
fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across
most of the forecast region likely through Tue. 
 
$$
Mahoney