000
AXNT20 KNHC 242301
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Mar 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2245 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 03N19W. The 
ITCZ extends from 03N19W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection
from 01N to 05N east of 43W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal boundary extends from 28N83W to 30N93W. Elsewhere, 1020
mb high pressure is over the north- central Gulf near 26N90W. A 
surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche. This pattern is 
supporting moderate NE to E winds and 3-5 ft seas in the bay of 
Campeche, with gentle breezes for the remainder of the basin. 

For the forecast, the front will dissipate across the NE Gulf on 
Wed, while weak high pressure will again move over the northeast 
Gulf Wed night through Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will
support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western 
coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the 
forecast period. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move into
the northern Gulf Sat morning and reach from extreme S Florida to
NE Mexico by Sun morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 16N83W, with surface
trough from the low to 15N80W. Another westward-moving surface 
trough is noted along 68W in the SE basin. Winds through the 
Caribbean are being regulated by the relatively modest gradient 
between lower pressure from the aforementioned features and high 
pressure to the north, leading to fresh NE to E winds just S of 
the Greater Antilles as well as through the Windward Passage and 
offshore Colombia, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas 
are mainly 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds south of Cuba, through
the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola will prevail through
tonight. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will 
develop offshore Colombia tonight and persist through Sat, mainly 
at night, as the high pressure moves slightly northeastward. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Weak high pressure extends a ridge across the region, west of a 
weakening frontal trough that extends from 31N47W to 20N60W then 
into the Atlantic coastal waters of Puerto Rico. A strong cold 
front has moved across the northwestern zones today and extends 
from near Bermuda to just north of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Strong
to near gale force winds and rough to very rough seas accompany 
this front. A ridge axis between this two features exits
SW through the Bahamas and across South Florida, creating a zone
of gentle anticyclonic winds and moderate seas.

In the far east Atlantic, a weakening 1012 mb low is nearly
stationary just S of the Canary Islands, inducing strong NE winds
NW of the islands, with associated rough seas in an area N of 22N
between 30W and the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate trades and
seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the W Atlantic cold front will 
reach from 31N64W to Cape Canaveral, Florida tonight, then begin 
to stall and quickly weaken. Winds and seas will diminish through
Wed night as the front drifts northward and dissipates. Moderate 
winds and seas will prevail Thu through late Fri across the 
region. The next strong cold front will move into the waters 
offshore of northeast Florida early Sat, and reach from 31N62W to 
Miami by Sun morning. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to
very rough seas will dominate all waters north of the front 
through Sun night.
 
$$
ERA