000
AXNT20 KNHC 210339
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Feb 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0335 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the 
northern Gulf Sat night and shift quickly across the basin through
early Mon, bringing fresh to near-gale northerly winds and rough 
seas. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are likely offshore of
Tampico and Veracruz Sun and Sun night. Winds and seas should 
gradually subside from NW to SE Mon through Tue in the wake of the
front. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from 05N14W to 01S30W and to 01S47W. A few showers
are noted near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Gale Warning is in effect for the western and SW Gulf. Please, 
see the Special features section for more information. 

High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge westward
over the Gulf region. The tight pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western Yucatan
support fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 26N
and between 87W and 91W, just north of the Yucatan peninsula.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

The southerly wind flow in the western Gulf waters is lifting 
smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico northward, producing 
hazy skies W of 92W. In addition, the warmer southerly wind flow, 
moving across the cooler coastal waters will also cause the 
development of areas of dense fog with low visibilities, from the 
NE Mexican coast to SE Louisiana tonight into Sat morning. Dense 
Fog Advisories are already in effect for these coastal waters.

For the forecast, an Atlantic ridge extending westward along 27N into 
the central Gulf will maintain moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds and moderate seas at the central and western Gulf through 
Sat evening. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse north of the 
Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night as a trough develops 
daily over the region. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

An expansive subtropical ridge located north of the islands
supports strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas
in the south-central Caribbean. A partial scatterometer satellite
pass captured peak winds to 30 kt in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh
to strong E-SE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are found in the Gulf of 
Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are 
occurring in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and much of 
the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are 
evident in the lee of Cuba and between Cuba and Jamaica. Shallow 
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted across the 
basin. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic ridge
along 27N and the Colombian low, will support fresh to strong 
trade winds in the eastern Gulf of Honduras through Sat night, and
across the south-central Caribbean through Sun. These winds will 
reach near- gale force each night offshore of Colombia. Moderate 
to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected for the rest of the
Caribbean through Sun night. Farther east, rough seas will linger
E of the Lesser Antilles through Sat night as N swell progresses 
across the central tropical Atlantic. A strong cold front will 
move through the Gulf of America this weekend and enter the 
northwestern Caribbean early Mon, reaching from near Haiti to near
the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border Tue morning. Expect strong N 
winds and rapidly building seas behind this front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting moderate
to locally fresh westerly winds and seas of 5-10 ft north of 28N
and west of 45W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and 
seas of 6-8 ft are noted south of 20N and west of 30W. Decaying NW
swell is producing rough seas north of 20N and east of 35W. In 
the far eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough 
seas are occurring north of 20N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a narrow ridge extends from the
central Atlantic along 27N to the NW Bahamas this evening, and 
will shift slowly eastward through the weekend, producing moderate
to locally fresh S to SW winds offshore of northern Florida 
tonight through Sat evening. Moderate or weaker winds are expected
elsewhere through Sat. A strong cold front will push offshore of 
the southeastern U.S. on Sun, with strong to near-gale NW winds 
and rapidly building seas behind the front through early next 
week. The front is expected to reach from near Bermuda to central 
Cuba Mon morning, and from 31N60W to the NW coast of the Dominican
Republic Tue morning, while weakening. The front will stall and 
weaken quickly from 30N55W to the central Dominican Republic on 
Wed. 

$$
Delgado