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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011757
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1805 UTC TUE DEC 1 2020

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE-FORCE, NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 35N21W. 
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LOW WILL 
DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, PRODUCING STRONG 
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE. THEIR WEBSITE IS: 
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ 
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR   
09N13W TO 09N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N29W TO THE
COAST OF N BRAZIL NEAR 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 03N-16N AND EAST OF 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF A 
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC AND 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF 
WATERS, 
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N98W.  

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH STRONG SE 
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP WED IN THE NW GULF, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD 
FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF WED NIGHT. BY THU NIGHT, THIS FRONT 
WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WITH 
GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY REDEVELOPING OFF VERACRUZ AND CONTINUING 
THROUGH FRI. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO GUATEMALA
NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND
WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER S, TO THE NORTH OF
THE EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W-84W.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN, GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
PREVAIL, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST S OF
HISPANIOLA.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST
OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WILL REACH EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS TONIGHT, THEN STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER FRONT MAY
ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON LOW
PRESSURE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NW OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED WITHIN 30 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT. OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC, A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N47W, WITH A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 32N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. 

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO EAST 
CENTRAL CUBA BY WED MORNING, THEN WEAKEN AND DRIFT SE INTO LATE 
WEEK. STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE 
OF THIS FRONT, MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 70W THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING 
AHEAD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST 
FLORIDA ON SAT.  

$$

ERA