000
AXNT20 KNHC 132344
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Nov 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

North-Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends
from near 31N71W to the northern Bahamas and to South Florida. 
Strong southwest winds are ahead of the front while fresh 
northwest winds are behind it. The front is expected to reach 
from near 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas by Sat morning, and 
from near 31N55W to near the Windward Passage by Sun morning. 
Gale-force southwest winds will develop late tonight into Sat 
morning ahead of the front north of 29N. These gale winds are 
expected to be short-lived as latest forecast has them ending at 
15Z. Seas with these winds are forecast to build to around 13 ft 
on Sat. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis exits the coast of Africa near 12N17W,
and continues southwestward to 09N20W, where it transitions to 
the ITCZ to 07N30W to 06N40W and to near 05N50W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between
24W-29W, between 31W-35W and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ
between 40W-45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front is analyzed from the Florida Keys to offshore 
Veracruz, Mexico. Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight 
to moderate seas are north of the front. Locally fresh winds and 
moderate seas are off Veracruz in the far southwest Gulf. Light 
to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the cold front will exit the basin tonight. 
Moderate to fresh north winds will veer easterly into Sat as 
high pressure builds southward toward the region in the wake of 
the front. These easterly winds will increase Sat night into 
Sun, to strong over the northern Gulf ahead of the next cold 
front that will move offshore Texas Sun night into Mon. Near 
gale-force winds are likely in the far northern Gulf ahead of 
this cold front early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas remain over the waters east 
of 76W. Light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas, are 
noted elsewhere. A trough extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of 
Honduras. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and east of 
the trough to near 75W as well as over portions of central and 
eastern Cuba. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the eastern Caribbean 
will diminish Sat. A cold front will enter the northwestern 
Caribbean this evening. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds 
are expected behind this front over the northwestern Caribbean Sat 
through Sun night. Trades are likely to strengthen again over the 
south central Caribbean starting Mon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
upcoming gale conditions east of a cold front. 

A strong cold front extends from near 31N75W to the northern 
Bahamas and to South Florida. Strong southwest winds are ahead of
the front impacting the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba while
fresh northwest winds are behind it. Seas ahead of the front are 7 
to 11 ft and 5 to 7 ft behind it. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed 
from near 31N67W to 27N75W to west-central Cuba. To its NW, a very 
active subtropical jet stream rounds the base of a deepening broad 
upper-level trough. A series of upper-level disturbances are riding 
along the jet stream branch and combining with trough, which is 
resulting in numerous large clusters of numerous moderate to strong 
convection east of the trough to near 60W. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen from 24N to 30N between 54W and 60W. Over the 
central Atlantic, a trough is along 48W from 17N to 25N. No 
significant convection is occurring with this feature. A 1024 mb 
high center is north of the area at 34N35W, with a broad ridge 
stretching southwestward to the eastern portion of the Dominican 
Republic. Light to gentle winds are roughly over the waters north of 
about 24N between 35W and a line from 31N45W to 24N59W. Latest Ascat 
scatterometer data indicates a swath of fresh trades from 17N to 24N 
east of 50W, and also south of 15N east of the Windward Islands. 
Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft in wind generated waves, with 
northeast swell merging with east to southeast swell. The latest 
Ascat scatterometer data also indicates gentle to moderate winds 
over the remainder of the discussion waters along with mostly 
moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front is 
expected to reach from near 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas
by Sat morning, and from near 31N55W to near the Windward 
Passage by Sun morning. The frontal boundary should then stall 
and weaken into early next week. The pressure gradient between 
the front and building Bermuda high pressure will tighten 
leading to increasing NE winds S of 27N and W of 65W Mon, and 
these strong winds will expand northward Tue and Tue night. 

$$
Aguirre