366 
AXNT20 KNHC 211030
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Apr 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: 
Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning along with very rough seas
for their AGADIR Marine Zone, through 22/0000 UTC. Please see the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST and WARNING issued by Meteo-France at 
website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then extends 
south- southwestward to 03N21W. An ITCZ continues west-
southwestward from 03N21W to near 00N35W. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring near and up to 200 nm north of the ITCZ between 21W 
and 33W, and south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 04N between 
10W and 21W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
numerous moderate convection in the Caribbean waters near the 
Panama- Colombia border.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1025 mb high off
the South Carolina coast across northern Florida to near Tampico,
Mexico. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are 
present across the Florida Straits. Moderate to locally fresh E 
to SE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the 
Gulf.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the
aforementioned high pressure and lower pressure toward the SW and
W Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds over the SE Gulf 
today, along with moderate to rough seas. Conditions will start to
improve Tue as the area of high pressure moves further from the 
area and the pressure gradient loosens. One exception is off the 
NW Yucatan Peninsula where pulses of strong winds are expected as 
a diurnal trough moves into the waters. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A 1026 mb high pressure off the South Carolina coast continues to
support a robust trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean 
Sea. Fresh to strong ENE winds are persisting across the central 
and western basin, with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Mainly moderate ENE
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean.  
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for convection in the SW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will support 
fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western Caribbean 
through tonight. The high will then shift eastward which will 
loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds into late week. 
Large northerly swell impacting the Mona and Anegada passages will
gradually subside early this week. Gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas will then prevail through the end of the 
week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on 
gale- force winds in the eastern Atlantic.

A surface trough extends southwestward from the central Atlantic
across 31N58W to a 1015 mb low pressure near 26N61W, then
continues southward to just east of the Leeward Islands along 60W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 22N between 
55W and 63W. Earlier convection near the Cabo Verde Islands has
diminished. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for 
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

The gradient between the aforementioned low and a 1026 high off
South Carolina is causing a zone of fresh to strong NNE winds and
8 to 11 ft sea N of 25N between 60W and 67W. Elsewhere W of the
trough axis, extending to 72W, moderate to fresh NE winds and seas
of 6 to 9 ft prevail. W of 72W, S of 25N, fresh E winds and seas
of 5 to 7 ft prevail, with gentle to moderate E winds and seas of
3 to 5 ft to the north. For waters E of 60W, widespread moderate
to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft dominate. Over far E
Atlantic, N of 20N and E of 35W, fresh to strong NE winds and seas
of 8 to 10 ft are occurring due to the pressure gradient between
the Azores high and low pressure over Africa. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a 
surface trough and weak low center along 60W and high pressure 
centered just W of Bermuda will support fresh to strong NE winds 
and rough seas today over Atlantic waters E of 70W, as well as S 
of 25W, including the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. Both the 
trough and the high pressure will weaken Tue, loosening the 
pressure gradient and leading to improving conditions through mid-
week. 

$$
Konarik