943 
AXNT20 KNHC 250437
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 42.3W at 0300 UTC,  
moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. 
Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak 
seas to 13 ft are occurring within 75 nm across the NW 
semicircle. Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of 
the center. Some strengthening is expected overnight before 
weakening likely commences by Fri afternoon or evening. A 
generally westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is 
expected over the next few days.

Invest AL90 across the far eastern Atlantic, has been named 
Tropical Storm Gonzalo, forming to the south-southeast of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Gonzalo is centered near 13.2N 22.1W at 0300 UTC, 
moving N-NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gust 
to 50 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Recent 
satellite scatterometer data showed that the center still remains 
somewhat elongated but with a large fetch of 30-40 kt easterly 
winds across the northern semicircle. Peak seas are to 14 ft 
across this area. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong 
convection prevails across the SE semicircle of Gonzalo from 08N 
to 17N between 16W and 25W. Tropical Storm Warnings have been 
issued for the Cabo Verde Islands. Gonzalo is expected to move 
north-northwestward during the next couple of days, passing near 
or over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. 
After about 24 hours, moderate to strong vertical wind shear and 
cooling SSTs are expected to cause a gradual weakening trend. 
Gonzalo is expected to become a post tropical remnant low to the 
north of the Cabo Verdes by 72 hours and meander there for a few 
days as steering currents become very weak. Heavy rains from 
Gonzalo could affect the eastern islands of Cabo Verde and the 
western coast of Africa between Guinea-Bissau to Senegal today 
through Saturday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay
and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Heavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A mid to 
upper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of 
America across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while 
relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level 
moisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail 
across this area during the next several days, and aid in 
funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and 
the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall 
through Sat. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact 
location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks 
likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern 
and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and
eastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa Rica and 
Panama. Convection across the area has diminished in the past few 
hours, with scattered moderate isolated strong showers and 
thunderstorms extending from the Gulf of Honduras northeastward 
across the Cayman Islands, across western Jamaica and eastern 
Cuba. Heavy rainfall across these regions will create the 
possibility of life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. 
Please refer to local weather services as well as the 
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more 
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 51W-52W, S of 
14W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted behind the wave, from 10N to 13.5N between 46W and 51W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 13N 
into central Colombia, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant 
convection is depicted over water in association with this wave,
while numerous moderate to strong convection is observed over much
of northern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania and meanders west the southwestward to low pressure 
near 13N22W, which has since become T.S. Gonzalo, then extends
southwest to 10N25W to near 10N48W. There is no well defined  
ITCZ further west at this time. Scattered moderate convection is
south of the monsoon trough from 07N to 09.5N between 25W and 32W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from SW Florida near Marco Islands to 
the central Texas coast, but has recently begun to drift southward
to the E of 90W. Widely scattered showers are occurring along the
from between 86W and 90W. A more significant cold front has moved
into the NE Gulf, and extends from northern Tampa Bay to near
Mobile Bay. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are found north of
the stationary front, while fresh NE winds are spilling across 
the Florida Bid Bend behind the cold front. Seas of 3 to 4 ft are 
found within 120 nm N of the stationary boundary, and across the 
Big Bend. To the south, gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas dominate, 
except for moderate N to NE winds along the NW coast of the 
Yucatan Peninsula, where scattered thunderstorms have entered the 
eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from Mobile Bay to the 
Tampa Bay area will move southwestward and gradually merge with a
weakening stationary front across the central Gulf, then progress
across the E Gulf tonight and Fri, then stall over the Straits of
Florida Sat before weakening. Moderate to locally fresh winds 
will follow the front through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish
slightly Sun into early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean that is
expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of 
Central America into the weekend.

At the surface, very weak high pressure is across the western
Atlantic between the Bahamas and 60W. The resultant pressure 
gradient across the Caribbean is yielding moderate to fresh trades
across the south-central basin S of 15N and between 63W and 73W. 
Seas in these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Over the eastern Caribbean 
moderate winds prevail with 3 to 4 ft seas, Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds and slight seas prevail, except moderate seas across 
the SW.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate
to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere through the next several days. An upper-
level trough will support scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for the next couple of days. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical 
Storm Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo. 

A mid to upper-level trough extending from the coasts of the
Carolinas southwestward across the eastern Gulf of America has
allowed for two frontal systems to move into the area NW Atlantic
waters, and also supports scattered showers and thunderstorms from
the Straits of Florida, across the Bahamas and northeastward
towards Bermuda. A stationary front extends from the Storm-force
low center offshore of Cape Hatteras southwestward through 31N73W
to south Florida, followed by a reinforcing cold front across the
NW waters along 31N78W to near Cape Canaveral. Strong N to NE 
winds 20-30 kt are filling into the area waters behind the cold 
front, and producing building N-NE swell moving into the waters N 
of the Bahamas and W of 65W. Local buoys show seas of 6 ft as far
south as Vero Beach, Florida increasing to 13 ft near 30N80W. 
Ahead of these fronts, a 1010 mb low center is located near 
27.5N76W. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail across the area
E of this low to 68W, and become fresh SW winds ahead of the 
stationary front and N of 30N. Seas across the area are 4 to 8 ft 
in building N swell. 
 
Another upper-level low is drifting westward near 25N54W. This 
feature is interacting with a surface trough resulting in an area 
of scattered moderate convection from 21N to 27N between 51W and 
60W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient 
continues across much of the Atlantic, as high pressure remains 
centered across the far NE Atlantic offshore of Europe, and drapes
over T.S. Fay. This pattern is sustaining gentle to moderate 
trades S of 20N and variable light to gentle winds and seas of 3
to 6 ft elsewhere W of 30W. However, swell generated from 
Tropical Storm Fay is producing seas of 6 to 12 ft N of 28N 
between 40W and 45W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front from near 
31N73W to south Florida will gradually merge with the cold front
Fri and then shift southeastward, reaching from near Bermuda to 
the Straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along 
the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and large N-NE swell 
will follow the front through Fri, before beginning to subside Sat
through Sun.

$$
Stripling