000
AXNT20 KNHC 200505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jun 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 19W, S of 16N. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N and E of 25W.

A tropical wave is along 34W S of 16N moving west at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 30W and
40W.

Another tropical wave is along 55W S of 18N moving west at around 
20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 12N
between 48W and 57W. Similar convection is seen inland over NE
South America. 

A tropical wave is moving across the Caribbean at 15 to 20 kt. 
Its axis is along 71W S of 17N. The wave appears to enhance 
convection over western Venezuela. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic off the coast of
Mauritania, and continues southwestward to near 08N27W, then 
westward to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 07N53W. Most 
of the convective activity across the area is related to the 
tropical waves described above. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Ridging stemming from high pressure in the Atlantic expands into
the Gulf. The interactions between this ridge and a trough along 
the western Yucatan Peninsula supports fresh to strong trades 
pulsing along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail across much of the Gulf W of 90W,
while gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail E of 90W with a
1018 mb high analyzed in the eastern Gulf. Seas are 4-7 ft across
much of the basin, except for the far eastern Gulf where slight 
seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
occurring in the far SE Gulf as an upper level shortwave trough 
moves over and just N of the region. 

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure extends from the 
Atlantic westward across Florida to the central Gulf. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures
over Texas and northeastern Mexico will generally support mostly 
fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf. The fresh
winds over the western and central Gulf will diminish to gentle 
to moderate speeds early next week with slight to moderate seas. 
Weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf will support light to 
anticyclonic winds and slight seas there through late Mon. The 
high pressure will become established over the central Gulf by 
midweek, with similar conditions expected over just about the 
entire basin at that time.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the central
Atlantic and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades and
6-8 ft seas across the central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail in the
eastern and NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 
2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the area 
into next week. The pressure gradient between the area of high 
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade 
winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through 
the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the 
coast of Colombia. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to 
rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through 
Mon, pulsing briefly to near gale- force tonight. Moderate to 
fresh winds are expected over much of the remainder of the 
Caribbean through Mon night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between W Africa and the
Lesser Antilles. Please see the Tropical Waves section for more 
details.

High pressure dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1024
mb center near 28N58W. Flow around this high and the associated
ridge axis supports moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas
across much of the Atlantic S of 20N as well as over the waters
between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola. A recent 
scatterometer pass confirmed fresh to locally strong N to NE winds
in a region from 18N to 25N and E of 20W. Gentle to moderate or 
weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring N of the Bahamas as an upper level
shortwave trough moves over and just N of the region. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure across the basin will
shift slightly eastward tonight as a cold front moves across the 
southeastern U.S. The front will move offshore northeast Florida 
on Sat, then stall and lift north as a warm front Sat night into 
Sun. Fresh southwest winds north of 30N and between 77W and 70W 
will diminish early Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will pulse 
to strong south of 22N into early next week, then be at mostly 
fresh speeds through the rest of the forecast period.

$$
Adams