000
AXNT20 KNHC 031056
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1040 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is W of the Cape Verde Islands near 25W, extending
from 05N to 16N, and moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 20W and 30W. 

A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles this morning.
The axis of the wave extends from inland E Venezuela to 19N and is
near 61W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 09N to 18N between 54W and 68W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues 
southwestward to 08N35W. The ITCZ extends from 08N35W to 07N56W. 
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is evident from 07N to 13N E of 20W, from 06N
to 10N between 30W and 36W, and from 05N to 09N between 37W and
54W.  

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic SW across 
the SE U.S. and to the central Gulf waters, supporting light to
gentle winds and slight seas across most of the basin, except for
gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the Bay of Campeche
associated with a surface trough. Aside from the moderate winds,
the surface trough is generating heavy showers and scattered 
tstms in the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will dominate the basin 
through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will 
pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week
due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. 
Gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail across the western 
half of the Gulf while moderate or lighter winds are expected 
elsewhere E of 90W. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the 
islands and the Colombian Low continue to support fresh to strong
easterly winds and seas of 8-10 ft in the central to SW 
Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW 
Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are 
occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. The E Pacific extension
of the monsoon continue to support scattered showers over the
Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia offshore waters. Shower activity
is also ongoing in the E basin as a tropical wave moves across the
Lesser Antilles this morning. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between 
the subtropical ridge north of the islands and the Colombian Low 
will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate 
to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Tue night. Expect
winds to reach near-gale force each night offshore of Colombia 
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades 
will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker 
winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers 
and thunderstorms are expected across the E Caribbean through 
tonight as a tropical wave moves across the region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of a statonary front, extends from a 
1017 mb low pressure near 31N73W to Freeport northern adjacent 
waters. Only isolated showers are noted in the vicinity of the
trough. Otherwise, the Azores extends a ridge southwestward across
the subtropical Atlantic waters, thus supporting mainly moderate
or weaker winds across the region and moderate seas, except slight
seas W of 65W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will gradually 
dissipate today while drifting northwestward toward the 
southeastern U.S. coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly
westward into central Florida through early next week. This 
pattern will support moderate to fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, 
and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to strong 
winds each late afternoon into the early evening hours near the 
coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. 

$$
Ramos