000
AXNT20 KNHC 012211
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Aug 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed from 07N to 18N between 20W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
present from 05N to 10N between 45W and 55W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring from 15N to 17N between 70W and 72W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Western Sahara near 24N15W and dives southwestward to a 1010 mb 
low pressure area near 16N26W and then to 08N45W. The ITCZ 
extends from 08N45W to 08N59W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and 
thunderstorms across much of the east-central Gulf. 1017 mb
surface high pressure is centered north of the Yucatan Channel
near 23N85W. This pattern is supporting moderate W winds and 2-4
ft seas off the northern Gulf coast, and light to gentle breezes
and 1-3 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the relatively weak high pressure will remain 
in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting 
gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception 
will be fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan
peninsula nightly through the period. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf and over mostly the 
eastern portion of the north-central Gulf into the upcoming week 
as an upper-level trough and a cold front approach the Gulf coast.
Moderate to fresh southwest winds look to develop ahead of the 
front over the far northern Gulf late this weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off central Belize,
and off northeastern Costa Rica and southeastern Nicaragua.
Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge 
situated in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep 
tropics sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of
6-9 ft across much of the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, the persistent enhanced pressure gradient 
across the Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades over the 
central basin through the rest of the weekend and into most of 
next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave, currently over
the eastern Caribbean near 68W, is accompanied by scattered 
showers and thunderstorms. The wave will quickly continue westward
across the remainder of the basin through Mon night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergence aloft associated with a couple of upper-level troughs
result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much
of the area north of 25N and west of 60W. The remainder of the 
subtropical and tropical Atlantic is influenced by a 1026 mb high
pressure area centered near 33N54W. This pattern is supporting 
moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas across 
much of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a  high pressure ridge extending from the central
Atlantic to the Straits of Florida will change little through Tue, then
lift to N of 31N on Wed. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue
to support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers 
and thunderstorms over the majority of the area into the upcoming 
week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola 
at night through the period. 

$$
Christensen