000
AXNT20 KNHC 081106
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jul 08 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between central
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South 
America will continue to result in fresh to near gale trades over 
the central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds should
pulse to gale-force just north of Colombia tonight before 
diminishing to just below gale-force Wed. These winds will again 
pulse back up gale-force at night over these same waters through 
the rest of period, except on Thu and Sun. Seas are expected 
to peak around 13 ft. Gale-force winds are also expected in the 
Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W from 
03N to 16N, and is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the axis from 07N
to 09N, and within 120 nm west of the wave from 06N to 08N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W south of 
17N, and is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers 
are within 60 nm west of the axis from 08N to 10N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W south of 19N. It
is moving westward at 15 kt. Only a few weak showers are near the
axis from 12N to 15N.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W south of 19N.
It is moving westward at an estimated motion of 10 kt. Scattered 
showers and a few thunderstorms are along the axis from 15N to
17N, and extend westward to inland the coast of northeast
Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Mauritania near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 11N24W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N28.5W. It resumes at 
08N30W and continues to 07N40W and to 07N52W. A small ITCZ segment
extends from 07N53W to the coast of South America at 07N58W. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm either side of 
the ITCZ between 34W and 39W. Similar convection is well south of 
the trough from 07N to 10N between the coast of Africa and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1020 mb high is analyzed over the eastern Gulf near 27N87W. This
high is along the western extension of a broad Atlantic ridge axis 
that extends westward across south-central Florida and across the 
basin. The related gradient is generally allowing for light to
gentle southeast to south winds north of 26N and for gentle to 
moderate easterly winds south of 26N, except for mostly moderate 
winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are of slight state, except for
moderate state seas in the Bay of Campeche.

Meanwhile, an upper-level low and mid-level trough over the NW 
Gulf is acting on a very unstable and moisture-laden atmosphere.
This has lead to the development of scattered showers and numerous 
thunderstorms over much of the west-central and southwestern 
portions of the basin, south of about 25N and west of 93W. 

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge across the basin will
change little through Thu night, then shift northward to near the
northern Gulf coast Fri through Sat night. Little overall changes
are expected with the winds and seas. Fresh to strong northeast 
to east winds are expected offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night
due to the diurnal trough that moves westward from the Yucatan 
peninsula. The shower and thunderstorm activity over the west-
central and southwestern Gulf is expected to perhaps last through 
Thu, or possibly a little longer.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions offshore Colombia.

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and 
lower pressures over northern South America is bringing fresh to 
near gale trades over the central Caribbean. Seas with these
winds are 8 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 
ft are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage.
Fresh to strong east winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are in the Gulf 
of Honduras while fresh to strong northeast winds are funneling 
into the Windward Passage. Seas there are also 4 to 6 ft, except 6
to 8 ft in the Atlantic entrance to the passage. Elsewhere, 
mostly fresh trades are over the basin south of 18N east of 84W. 
Seas are 6 to 8 ft between 67W and 84W, and 5 to 7 ft east of 67W.

The southern portion of an upper-level trough extends from the 
central Gulf of America to the northwestern Caribbean. Upper
divergence to its is helping to sustain isolated showers and 
thunderstorms over this part of the sea, and the same for similar 
activity that is along the coast of Honduras, and just offshore 
that coast between 85W and 87W, and for the activity that is 
along the southern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic 
high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will
continue to result in fresh to near gale trades over the central 
Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds to gale- force 
just north of Colombia will diminish to just below gale- force 
this morning. These winds will again pulse back up gale- force at 
night over these same waters through the rest of the period, 
except on Thu and Sun. Gale-force winds are also expected in the 
Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. Trades over the Gulf of
Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the late 
afternoons and evenings through the weekend. A fast-moving 
tropical wave should reach the Lesser Antilles this evening, 
bringing fresh to strong trades over the eastern Caribbean Thu 
through Fri night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
may accompany this wave. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge axis extends across the tropical
Atlantic roughly along 27N, anchored by a 1027 mb high center at 
26N44W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower 
pressures in the deep tropics is producing fresh to strong trades 
south of about 23N and between 70W and 75W as noted in overnight 
scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are with 
these trades. Farther east, fresh to locally strong trades are 
southeast of a line from 28N19W to 22N40W to 22N50W to 22N65W to 
23N70W, except southeast of the line east of 31W where light to 
gentle southerly to variable winds are present Seas are 6 to 8 ft 
over these waters, except 4 to 6 ft southeast of the 
aforementioned line east of 31W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and seas of about 4 to 6 ft remain.

A weak trough is analyzed from 30N49W to 32N61W. Isolated weak 
showers are near the trough. A cold front extends from 32N45W to 
33N54W. Earlier scattered moderate convection noted to the south 
of this boundary has significantly weakened.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge axis along 27N will 
change little through Thu, then shift slightly north afterward. 
The associated gradient will continue to support moderate to fresh
trades south of 23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, 
except north of 29N where moderate to fresh south to southwest 
winds will exist. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas 
are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to
the Windward Passage through the weekend. 

$$
Aguirre