000
AXNT20 KNHC 110441
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Sep 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are moving 
westward over Guinea, Guinea Bissau and Sierra Leone reaching 
the Atlantic waters. Based on model guidance, a new tropical wave
follows this convective activity. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 32W, south of 21N, moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with
this wave at this time.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 71W, south of 20N and extends
into Venezuela, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the wave axis over Venezuela.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W, south of 20N, moving 
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W, and continues southwestward to 14N30W to 
10N39W. The ITCZ extends from 10N39W to the coast of Guyana near 
07N58W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 
34W and 57W. 
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1013 mb low pressure is located near 29N89W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are noted N of 29N between 85W-89W. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are once again over most the Florida 
Peninsula, mainly E of a surface trough that extends along 85W. A
diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective 
activity. Showers and thunderstorms are also noted over the 
Yucatan Peninsula and northern Guatemala. Otherwise, a weak 
pressure gradient is over the Gulf waters supporting gentle to  
moderate winds. These winds are generating mainly slight seas 
over the basin, with the exception of slight to moderate seas over
the central Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, NE to E winds will pulse to fresh off the W Yucatan 
peninsula beginning Sat night due to a diurnal trough moving 
toward the SW Gulf each evening. Elsewhere, winds will be gentle
to moderate for the next several days due to the influence of a 
weak high pressure over the N Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low continues
to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over much of
the central Caribbean, particularly S of 16N, and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Recent altimeter passes indicate seas of 8 to 10 ft 
within these winds. Fresh to strong winds are also evident across
the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas 
cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Convection has 
flared-up over most of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the NW 
Caribbean. An upper-level low spinning over the NW Caribbean is 
enhancing this convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms are 
also occurring over Hispaniola, and over parts of the SW 
Caribbean, including the Atlantic coast of SE Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the moderate pressure gradient from ridging 
north of the area to the Colombian Low will continue to force 
fresh to strong with locally near-gale trades over the central 
Caribbean for the next several days. From Sat night through Mon 
night, trades over the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh 
with locally strong. Elsewhere winds will be moderate or weaker.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N44W to 27N54W, then becomes
stationary from that point to 30N76W. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the front, more concentrated 
from 24N to 29N between 57W and 68W. Gentle to moderate NE to E 
winds are in the wake of the front. The remainder of the forecast 
waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1023 mb high 
pressure located E of Bermuda near 32N56W, and an 1025 mb high 
pressure centered E of the Azores near 38N24W. The pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures over NW 
Africa is promoting moderate to fresh NE winds N of 27N and E of 
25W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds 
are observed over most of the tropical Atlantic, and S of 22N 
between 70W and 74W. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. 
Seas are in general moderate across the Atlantic forecast waters. 

For the forecast west of 55W, winds north of Hispaniola including
the approach to the Windward Passage will be fresh through Mon 
night. Elsewhere, the Bermuda-Azores High situated along 30N 
should produce only moderate or weaker winds across the remaining 
forecast waters for the next several days.

$$
ERA