000
AXNT20 KNHC 221722
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the North Caribbean: A broad upper-level 
trough extends from the United States into the NW Caribbean, 
while deep moisture convergence is ongoing at lower levels in the
southern Caribbean. A broad plume of very moist air will interact
with the upper level trough in the NW Caribbean, sustaining 
moisture into Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas over the 
next several days. Low-level winds will also lead to moist onshore
flow entering along the southern coasts of east Cuba and Haiti, 
where heavy precipitation is expected from tonight through Sunday.
Expect the heaviest precipitation to occur across all other 
aforementioned areas on Saturday and Sunday. Heavy rainfall will 
raise concerns for dangerous and life- threatening flash flooding.
Please refer to your local weather services and the International
Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Libera near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 04N15W and then
northwestward to 09N27W. A surface trough is analyzed from 17N24W
to 06N29W. The ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 07N59W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 02N to 10N between 10W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough parallels the western Gulf coast from near South
Padre Island, TX into the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen S of 21N and W of 91W. Otherwise,
high pressure centered over the Middle Mississippi Valley supports
moderate to fresh NE winds and 2-5 ft seas across much of the
Gulf, with locally strong NW winds offshore Veracruz.

For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern United States 
supports moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf. 
A tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure and a low
pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to
strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas over the eastern 
Gulf Fri night into Sat. These marine conditions will spread 
westward to the central Gulf by late Sat through early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring over the
central Caribbean S of Hispaniola. Isolated moderate convection is
also occurring S of 11N and W of 77W, enhanced by the East Pacific
monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean. To the NW, a surface trough
extending from eastern Cuba to central Belize is supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong trades
prevail in the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades
prevail in the eastern and far NW Caribbean N of the surface
trough. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere.
Slight seas prevail basin-wide. 

For the forecast, a broad trough over the central and western 
Caribbean will support light winds and slight to moderate seas 
west of 75W through Sat, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 
moderate seas east of 75W. Looking ahead, expect fresh N to NE 
winds across the western Caribbean with building seas west of 80W 
early next week as high pressure builds north of the area. Little 
change is expected elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough reaches from SE of Bermuda to the Windward Passage. 
Farther north, Subtropical Storm Josephine is off New Jersey. 
N swell of 8 to 12 ft generated by Josephine is moving into the 
region as far south as 25N west of 70W. A recent altimeter pass 
confirmed wave heights of 12-14 ft occurring N of 29N. Clusters of
showers and thunderstorms are active north of 21N and west of 
45W, mainly near the trough and another trough reaching from 
31N55W to 24N50W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 6-8 ft seas are 
ongoing E of 50W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas are 
noted elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, large N swell, generated by 
Subtropical Storm Josephine centered off the NE of the United 
States, is moving into the region north of 27N and west of 65W 
this morning. A tightening pressure gradient will develop 
beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the 
western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the Bahamas along a
trough or developing frontal boundary. This setup is expected to 
induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very 
rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over the waters 
north of 28N between 60W and 75W on Sun. Mariners should monitor 
the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. 

$$
Adams