000
AXNT20 KNHC 101042
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat May 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1025 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 06N15W. The ITCZ
stretches from 06N15W to 02N30W and to 00N50W. Moderate scattered
convection is evident south of 06N and east of 45W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from a 1008 mb low pressure centered near 
the mouth of the Mississippi River to western Yucatan and the 
eastern Bay of Campeche. A strong line of showers and 
thunderstorms extend from the Big Bend area of Florida to 23N89W. 
These storms are likely to produce frequent lightning strikes, 
gusty winds to gale force and suddenly higher seas. Fresh to 
locally strong northerly winds are found behind the front, with 
the highest winds occurring off Veracruz. Seas in these waters are
4-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW-N winds will continue to
affect the SW Gulf waters, especially off Veracruz. Locally
rough seas may accompany these winds. Winds will diminish by
early Sun. The low pressure is forecast to move northward into the
southern United States over the next couple of days and drag the
cold front across the eastern Gulf. The front will depart the
basin early next week. Fresh to strong S winds are expected ahead
of the front today into Sun. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of
Honduras, while generally dry conditions are prevalent in the rest
of the Caribbean. A building ridge to the north of the basin
supports fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft in the
central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. The strongest winds and
highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia. In the remainder of
the Caribbean, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas across much of the 
central Caribbean through early next week. The strongest winds and
highest seas will occur off NW Colombia. Elsewhere, a moderate 
pressure gradient will sustain fresh to locally strong E winds in 
the Gulf of Honduras early this morning and evening. Fresh to 
locally strong NE winds will also pulse through the Windward 
Passage and off southern Hispaniola into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The pressure gradient between a weak surface trough along 68W and
the strong subtropical ridge in the north Atlantic result in
moderate to fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas between 65W and
50W. A weak ridge positioned north of the Bahamas dominates the
remainder of the SW North Atlantic, sustaining moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas.

In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening extratropical cyclone
supports fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas north of 25N
and east of 35W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas are found in the trade waters east of 50W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh winds and moderate to rough 
seas will shift southward over the next few days, mainly south of 
20N by early next week. Farther west, moderate to fresh SE winds 
are forecast to develop offshore of Florida and the Bahamas by 
tonight ahead of a cold front moving through the eastern Gulf of 
America. Looking ahead, strong S winds and rough seas may develop 
offshore NE Florida early next week as the cold front in the Gulf 
of America moves into the western Atlantic. The marine conditions 
will improve by midweek.

$$
Delgado