181 
AXNT20 KNHC 080838
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu May 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning: Cyclonic winds at times to gale-force
with severe gusts are forecast in the Irving High Seas Forecast
zone. Large and dangerous seas of up to 18 ft may accompany this
system, anchored by a 1005 mb occluded low centered near
34.5N29.5W. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09.5N13W and 
extends southwestward to 02.5N23W. The ITCZ continues from 
02.5N23W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered to 
numerous moderate to strong convection is ongoing from 01S to 07N 
between 00W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
150 nm either side of the monsoon trough. Similar convection is
noted and displaced from 05N to 10N between 44W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Low pressure 1014 mb is centered near Dauphin Island, Alabama 
with a stationary front from the low to just SE of Louisiana to 
offshore Brownsville, Texas, continuing as a trough southward off 
Tamaulipas. Convection associated with these features has
diminished somewhat during the past several hours with isolated to
widely scattered showers noted near and SE of the front. Moderate
to fresh winds are noted NW of the Yucatan Peninsula, with gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere including on either side of the front. 
Seas are 4 to 7 ft west of 87W, except 2 to 4 ft south of 20N in
the Bay of Campeche, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere, except 2 ft or less
in the eastern Gulf coastal waters.

For the forecast, the front and low will remain nearly stationary
through today, then begin to move SE across the Gulf waters by 
Fri morning, reaching from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. 
Then, the cold front will extend from the western Florida 
Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by Sat morning, and from the 
Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Sun morning. Fresh to
strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the
front through Sat. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern 
Mexico is creating hazy conditions in some sections of the W and 
SE Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A broad area of low pressure SSW of Bermuda continues to prevent
the Bermuda High from building into the basin, and is maintaining
a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean. This is resulting 
in gentle to moderate trade winds across most of the Caribbean, 
except for localized fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of 
Honduras and fresh NE winds through the Windward Passage, and in 
the lee of eastern Cuba. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the most of 
the basin, except 4 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and across the
approach to the Windward Passage. Scattered showers are ongoing 
offshore Colombia and Panama and in the SE Caribbean. A surface
trough is analyzed across the far NE Caribbean with associated
scattered showers E of 64W.

For the forecast, pulsing east to southeast winds to fresh to 
strong speeds are expected N of Honduras at night through Sat 
evening. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are
forecast over the remainder of the basin through Fri, including 
in the Tropical N Atlantic, before increasing this weekend as the 
Atlantic high pressure builds westward. As a result, winds will 
start to increase to fresh speeds in the central Caribbean and off
Colombia Fri night, then to fresh to strong speeds Sat through 
the remainder of the upcoming weekend and into next week. 
Unsettled weather is expected to continue over the eastern 
Caribbean through at least today. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The pressure gradient between a 1012 mb low pressure centered 
near 26.5N67W with associated trough and high pressure located 
over the central Atlantic is supporting diminishing fresh to 
locally strong E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas north and 
east of the low center. Moderate to fresh winds are also west of
the low and trough from 25N to 30N between the features and 70W. 
Scattered showers and tstms are E of this trough and another 
trough moving across the Leeward Islands, covering an area from 
16N to 29N between 45W and 65W. The remainder central and eastern 
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface 
ridge that is being intersected by a cold front that extends from 
31N25W to 28N35W to 30N44W. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and 
rough seas to 10 ft follow this front S of 31N, with higher values
NE of the area including gales in the W quadrant of the low in 
Meteo- France's forecast area. Moderate or weaker winds are 
elsewhere along with moderate seas, except slight seas off the SE
U.S. coast.

For the forecast west of 55W, the marine conditions associated
with the SW N Atlantic low and trough will continue to affect the
NE waters today before diminishing by Fri. The low pressure will 
meander near 27N between 65W and 70W over the next couple of days,
and open up into a trough by Sat morning. A stationary front 
along and just offshore the southeastern U.S. coast will gradually
lift back northwest as warm front today, then may slowly push 
offshore again at the end of the week and into the upcoming 
weekend. 

$$
Lewitsky