000
AXNT20 KNHC 171527
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun May 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is around 17W/18W from 14N 
southward, moving very slowly. There is some indication that this
wave may need to be repositioned in the next day or so when
additional data becomes available. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 13W and 20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 12N southward
to northern Brazil, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 48W and 52W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from 19N southward across
eastern Jamaica to the northern coast of Colombia. This tropical
wave was previously analyzed to the east, but the latest
observations, satellite imagery, and analysis tools indicates that
it is near 77W, and is likely to get absorbed or merge its
vorticity with that of the Colombian/Panamanian low. There is no 
deep convection noted over water, but active convection is present
over portions of northern and NW Colombia, possibly enhanced by 
this feature.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, then curves 
southwestward to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 05N36W to
03.5N49.5W. Other than the convection described above in the
Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate is noted from 01N to
06N between 26W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A modest surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida
Panhandle to the western Gulf. This feature is supporting mainly 
gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas for the eastern half of the Gulf.
In the western Gulf, the pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressure over Texas is leading to moderate to locally fresh
SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will 
extend a ridge over and just north of the Gulf through mid-week. 
Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this
week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. 
Also expect fresh to strong wind pulses off the northwest Yucatan 
peninsula during the evenings.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge along 31N and a
1007 mb low pressure over western Panama is sustaining fresh to 
strong NE to E winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in the central and part 
of the southwestern basin, from 10N to 16N between 70W and 82W. 
Fresh E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are noted at the Gulf 
of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 
ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, except more tranquil
conditions across the approach to the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support 
fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf 
of Honduras into Tue night, with moderate to fresh trades across 
the remainder of the forecast waters. Rough seas can be expected 
in the central Caribbean through Tuesday night as well. Large E 
swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic 
waters into Tue, then begin to subside. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends SE from 31N59W to near the SE and Central 
Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection extends up to 240 nm on
either side of this boundary. Otherwise, broad ridging anchored 
by a 1029 mb high centered near 33N32W dominates. Mainly gentle
anticyclonic winds prevail across the waters north of 29N between
32W and 78W and with 3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades
dominate the remainder of the waters, with seas of 7 to 9 ft in N
to NE swell south of 23N and east of 62W, and 4 to 7 ft seas in
easterly swells elsewhere south of 29N.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central 
Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and occasionally rough 
seas with E swell into tonight mainly east of the Leeward Islands.
A weak frontal remnant trough extending from 31N59W to the 
Bahamas will dissipate today, leaving tranquil marine conditions 
in place through mid-week. 

$$
Lewitsky