000
AXNT20 KNHC 161621
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Feb 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N78W to
near Pompano Beach, Florida. A recent scatterometer satellite 
pass confirmed S to SW winds to 40 kt ahead of the front, with 
strong to near-gale force winds within 300 nm ahead of the front, 
north of 27N. Rough seas are also ongoing in the same area, and 
following the front west of 78W. The cold front will reach from 
near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to west-central Cuba by early 
this afternoon, at which time these winds are expected to shift 
north of 31N.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis remains over the African continent at this
time. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 02S30W to 03S43W. Scattered
moderate convection is active from 03N to 07N between 13W and 18W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from southwest Florida near Chokoloskee to
24N87W. Moderate N winds, 4 to 6 ft seas, and cloudy skies follow
the front over the northeast and north-central Gulf. Gentle
breezes, slight seas and fair skies prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will exit the basin this 
afternoon. Moderate northerly winds over the NE Gulf behind the 
front will diminish by Tue morning as a surface ridge begins to 
slide eastward across the area. However, the pressure gradient 
will tighten over the western half of the Gulf on Tue as a very 
broad area of low pressure deepens over the NW CONUS. This will 
result on the development of southerly moderate to fresh winds 
that will expand to the eastern half of the basin Thu morning 
ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A few thunderstorms are active near a weak 1016 mb low pressure
area east of Grand Cayman Island. Farther south, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are active off eastern Panama. This is due in
part to convergence of fresh trade winds off Colombia, where seas
to 8 ft are possible. Moderate winds and seas are evident
elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle
breezes and slight seas over the northeast Caribbean.

For the forecast, pulsing strong northeast winds will prevail 
offshore Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela and southern Panama 
through Fri night. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these 
winds. Fresh NE winds will develop in the Windward Passage and in 
the lee side of Cuba Tue through Wed evening as high pressure come
off the Carolinas and then moves eastward towards the central 
Atlantic. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Honduras Wed evening and will continue through Fri night. 
Otherwise, trade winds will reach moderate to fresh speeds over 
the E Caribbean Thu and Fri as high pressure builds over the 
central subtropical Atlantic waters. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect northeast of the northern Bahamas for
this morning. Please refer to the Special Feature section above 
for more details.

In addition the situation described in the Special Features
section about conditions near the cold front, a second front is
evident farther east from 31N40W to 23N50W, then is a stationary 
front to the northern Leeward Islands. 1025 mb high pressure is
centered between the fronts near 30N55W. Moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted along and within 90 nm of the
easternmost front, with gentle breezes and 4 to 5 ft seas
elsewhere west of the front. Elsewhere moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas with a component of NE to E swell
persists. 

For the forecast west of 55W outside of the Gale Warning area, the
front will reach from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas and to 
central Cuba tonight, then from near 31N58W to 24N65W and 
stationary to South Florida Tue. The cold front portion will move 
E of 55W late Tue while the stationary portion weakens, with 
frontal remnants lifting back N as a warm front Wed. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front 
through late tonight. Rough seas will linger elsewhere E of 60W 
through Thu. 

$$
Christensen