000
AXNT20 KNHC 090611
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Feb 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell: A
cold front is analyzed from near 31N47W southwestward to 22N60W 
to the Great Bahama Bank near 21N75W. Recent scatterometer 
satellite data passes reveal west to northwest winds of 30 to 35 
kt west of the front north of 27N and to 70W. Seas with these 
winds are in the range of 20 to 28 ft. However, very rough seas 
in excess of 12 ft extend well to the south of these gale winds to
near 22N and between 50W and 74W due to the occurrence of significant
northwest swell. Fresh to strong southwest winds are east of the 
front to roughly 33W and N of 24N. Seas with these winds are in 
the range of 8 to 18 ft in northwest swell. The front is forecast
to reach from near 31N43W to 18N62W by early Mon afternoon. West 
to northwest strong to near gale-force winds are expected at that 
time west of the front to near 62W, and north of 26N along with 
seas of 17 to 26 ft in northwest swell. Fresh to strong winds will
be north of 25N between the front and 71W at that time along with
seas of 14 to 23 ft in northwest swell. Meanwhile, the gale-force
winds behind the front will diminish to fresh to strong speeds by
early Tue morning. Very rough seas generated by these winds will 
propagate southeastward impacting most of the waters north of 
about 16N and northeast and east of the Bahamas through the middle
of the week. The very rough seas are likely to finally subside to
just below 12 ft by early Wed evening. Mariners are urged to stay
up to date with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and extends southwestward to near 02N21W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues to 01N40W to 
00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extend from
00N to 04N between 09W and 34W. Scattered moderate convection
extend from 05S to 04N between 34W and 50W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1025 mb is centered over the west-central Gulf
near 24N91W, with a ridge stretching eastward across the remainder
Gulf. Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft, with the highest of the
seas located in the Straits of Florida, Bay of Campeche, and in the
Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters 
into late week, bringing a gentle to moderate mainly southerly 
flow. Locally fresh winds are expected, mainly at night, just west
of the Yucatan Peninsula, and over the far western waters. Slight
to moderate seas will prevail. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A surface trough, remnants of a former frontal boundary, extends
from the Leeward Islands SW to offshore Colombia. Another surface
trough is over the SW Caribbean from the offshore waters of
Jamaica near 17N78W to central Panama. Otherwise, surface ridging
extends from the Gulf of America to the NW Caribbean while 
surface ridging from the E subtropical Atlantic extends across the
southern half of the central and eastern basin. The gradient of
pressure between these ridges and lower pressure over NW Colombia
is supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds over the central
Caribbean and moderate to fresh NE winds over the SW and portions
of the NW basin. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Seas
basin-wide are slight to moderate, highest offshore Colombia. 

For the forecast, the remnants of a frontal boundary extending 
from  to just N of Colombia will be reinforced by a cold front 
tonight into Mon, with the combined front sliding east of the 
Leeward Islands by Tue. Winds will increase in the wake of the 
front, becoming strong initially offshore Colombia and Hispaniola 
tonight, then expanding to much of the central Caribbean, 
including the Windward Passage, Mon through Wed, as high pressure 
in the western Atlantic builds southward toward the area. Rough 
seas will accompany these strong winds. Winds may pulse to gale 
force offshore Colombia Mon night and Tue night. In addition, 
large NW to N swell will impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage,
and tropical N Atlantic waters tonight into Wed. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a gale 
warning and significant swell in the western and central 
Atlantic.

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N47W southwestward to 22N60W
to the Great Bahama Bank near 21N75W. High pressure centered over
the Carolinas extends SE across the Bahamas in the wake of this
front. Aside from the harsh marine conditions described in the
Special features section associated with this front, moderate or
weaker NE winds are ongoing along the Great Bahama Bank where seas
are slight. Ahead of the front, a pre-frontal trough extends from
30N45W to the Leeward Islands. Farther east, surface ridging
dominates the E subtropical waters, which is anchored by a 1025 mb
high near 28N25W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are south of
this area of high pressure into the tropical Atlantic waters where
seas are moderate to 7 ft.  

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will slide SE and out 
of the region by Tue. Behind it, gale-force winds will prevail N 
of 28N and E of 68W through Mon night, with strong NW winds 
dominating N of 25N and E of 73W. Very rough seas in the area of 
strong to gale-force winds will continue, with seas 12 ft or 
higher impacting all waters E of 75W through Tue. Peak seas along 
31N to the SE of Bermuda can be expected tonight. Conditions will 
improve mid-week as high pressure traverses the waters. 

$$
Ramos