000
AXNT20 KNHC 111007
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Feb 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient 
between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower 
pressure in Colombia and Panama will support fresh to near gale- 
force winds across most of the central Caribbean, including the 
Windward Passage, and the waters south of Hispaniola today. Winds
will pulse to minimal gale-force this morning offshore Colombia. 
Seas with these winds are expected to be in the 8 to 11 ft range.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Very large NW swell ranging 
from mainly 12 to 15 ft with 12 to 18 second periods covers much 
of the area north of 22N between 20W and 55W. The swell is the 
result of both storm force winds associated with low pressure 
systems across the north Atlantic. The swell will continue to 
decay slowly from SW to NE, allowing for these seas to drop below
12 ft (4 m) for most areas by this evening. Mariners are urged to
stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and
continues to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to 00N49W. 
Scattered moderate convection extends from 00N to 07N E of 20W, 
and from 00N to 06N between 40W and 49W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends across the Gulf, leaving light to gentle
winds in place over most of the basin. Some moderate SE winds are
present in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas basin-wide are 2 to 
4 ft. 

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate through the end of 
the week, bringing mainly gentle SE winds. Southerly winds will 
increase this weekend ahead of a cold front that will cross the 
waters Sun. Strong winds and rough seas are possible in the 
northern Gulf with this frontal system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

See Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning 
in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia.

High pressure anchored by a 1025 mb center NE of the Bahamas is 
extending a ridge southward into the northern Caribbean, 
supporting fresh to near gale-force NE winds over the central 
Caribbean, Windward Passage, and waters S of the Greater Antilles.
Seas across the central Caribbean are 8 to 11 ft, mainly due the 
winds, but with also a component of northerly swell slipping 
through the Mona Passage from the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh NE 
to E winds and moderate seas to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will 
support fresh to strong winds across most of the central 
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and the waters between 
Cuba and Jamaica, into tonight. Winds will pulse to gale force 
tonight offshore Colombia. Large NW to N swell will continue to 
impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic 
waters today, creating hazardous marine conditions. Late this week
into the weekend, the pressure gradient will relax, leading to 
moderate to fresh trade winds dominating the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
significant NW swell impacting portions of the central subtropical
Atlantic. 

Surface high pressure and associated ridging continue to dominate
the subtropical Atlantic waters. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 
moderate to rough seas are present over the waters S of 22N and W 
of 55W. Fresh winds and moderate to rough seas are also present N
of 29N, in the periphery of the high center. Between the two 
ridges, a cold front extends from 31N35W SW to 21N58W. Moderate 
SW winds are ahead of the front while NE winds of the same speed 
are ongoing in the trade wind belt from S of the Canary Islands to
the Lesser Antilles. Otherwise, long-period and large NW swell 
continue to affect the tropical Atlantic waters with rough seas to
12 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will cross the basin 
today, with SW winds behind it across northern waters increasing 
to fresh to strong speeds ahead of the next cold front. This front
will enter NW waters Thu, then cross the waters through through 
Fri night. Looking ahead, more strong S to SW winds are likely 
offshore the SE U.S. starting Sun, ahead of another cold front.

$$
Konarik