441 
AXNT20 KNHC 050537
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Jan 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra 
Leone near Freetown, then reaches west-southwestward to 06N16W. 
An ITCZ continues from 06N16W across 04N30W to 04N45W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near these 
features from 03N to 07N between 10W and 28W, including the coast
of Liberia.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
scattered showers across the Caribbean waters near eastern Panama
and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weakening stationary front meanders westward from near the
Florida Keys to the central Gulf, then transitions into a 
surface trough across the west-central Gulf. Patchy showers are
seen near and up to 50 nm south of the front. Two surface trough
are triggering widely scattered showers over the north-central
and northeastern Gulf. North of the front/trough, gentle to
moderate ENE to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present. South
of the front/trough, a 1019 mb high at the southwestern Gulf is 
providing light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds 
and moderate seas are expected over the western Gulf through 
midweek as the aforementioned high builds over the central basin 
and drifts eastward. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas 
will prevail over the rest of the Gulf. Looking ahead, fresh to 
locally strong S winds and widespread moderate seas will develop 
west of 90W by Thu, as a complex low pressure system over the 
central United States strengthens. A cold front associated with 
this storm system is slated to enter the northern Gulf by next 
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough curves northeastward from the southwest basin
through a 1012 mb low near Jamaica to beyond eastern Cuba. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over
Jamaica, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh N
to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present between Jamaica and
eastern Cuba. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh N to NE to E 
winds with 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the southeastern and west-
central basin, including the eastern Gulf of Honduras. Light to
gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected 
from the north-central through western basin early this week as 
high pressure over the Gulf of America moves eastward. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker trade winds and slight to moderate seas will 
prevail over the rest of the basin through midweek. Fresh to 
locally strong trade winds will develop over the south-central 
basin by Tue evening, supporting locally rough seas near and to 
the west of these winds. Looking ahead, widespread fresh trade 
winds may develop over much of the basin late this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the northeast of Bermuda
across 31N62W and the central Bahamas to the Florida Straits.
Widely scattered showers are noted near and up to 80 nm south of
this boundary. To the southeast, a surface trough meanders 
southwestward from 28N65W across the Turks and Caicos Islands to 
beyond eastern Cuba. Aided by divergent flows at the mid levels, 
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up 
near and east of this feature but south of the cold front, north 
of 20N between 55W and the southeast Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW to NW to NE winds with 6
to 9 ft seas are found near the cold front, north of 28N between
53W and 76W. To the west and southwest, gentle to moderate N to NE
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist east of Florida and across the
northwest and central Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are noted near the southeast Bahamas.
Otherwise, a broad Atlantic Ridge is dominating waters north of
20N between 35W and 53W, and from 20N to 28N between 53W and 70W
with gentle to moderate E to SE to SW winds and 4 to 8 ft seas in
mixed moderate swells. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N
between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate with locally fresh
ENE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist. Gentle to moderate E to
SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic
Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
drift eastward early this week. Fresh to locally strong SW to W 
winds and rough seas are expected east of the front, north of 29N,
through early Mon morning. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds 
and rough seas will occur in the wake of the front tonight, with 
moderate to fresh N to NE winds and locally rough seas expanding 
southeastward early this week as high pressure builds to the 
north. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh S to SW winds may develop 
offshore of northern Florida by midweek as a surface trough 
develops to the north. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
are expected over the rest of the waters by late this week.

$$

Chan