819 
AXNT20 KNHC 171015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jul 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, from 09N to  
22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered showers are 
seen from 07.5N to 12N between 22W and 28W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W-67W, south of 
20N, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to 21.5N between 64.5W and
72W, and also behind the wave from 12N to 16N between 63W and 67W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W-80W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is occurring across southern portions of the wave near the monsoon
trough across western Panamas and in the eastern Pacific along and
offshore of Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the border of Senegal
and Guinea-Bissau along 16.5W and continues west southwestward to
09N41W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to the coast of French Guiana
near 05.5N53W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed within 120 nm of the coast of Africa from 06N to 11N, and
from 01.5N to 11N between 30W and 58W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Overnight satellite scatterometer data indicated that the 
disturbance (AL93) that the National Hurricane Center has been 
tracking over the northeast and north-central Gulf waters remains 
quite disorganized, with an elongated trough extending north to 
south, currently from Mobile Bay to 28N89W. Peak winds detected 
were 25 kt or less. In addition, the associated shower and 
thunderstorm activity remains displaced well west of the trough, 
with scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection 
noted north of 27.5N between coastal Mississippi and the 
Louisiana-Texas border. While some additional development of this 
system remains possible over the next 12-24 hours, its current 
structure suggests its chances of developing into a tropical 
depression before it reaches the Louisiana coast later today are 
decreasing. The disturbance has a low chance of tropical 
development over the next 48 hours and also in the next 7 days.

Weak high pressure persists over the NW Gulf, and is supporting a 
weak pressure gradient across the basin. This pattern is  
supporting moderate to locally fresh southerly winds in the NE 
and NW Gulf waters. Seas in these waters are 3-4 ft. Moderate to 
locally fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas are found
in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight seas prevail. Scattered moderate convection covers much of
the southeast Gulf this morning, supported by broad middle to
upper level low pressure across the northern Bahamas and south 
Florida. 

For the forecast, AL93 is forecast to continue moving westward 
across northern portions of the Gulf today, reaching SE Louisiana
late today. If this system moves far enough offshore, environmental
conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable for 
additional development, and a tropical depression could form over 
the next day or two before the system moves fully inland by Fri. 
Regardless of development, heavy showers and thunderstorms are 
expected over the north- central Gulf through Fri, with erratic 
gusty winds and rough seas possible near convection. Atlantic high
pressure will shift westward into the NE Gulf over the weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information of the
tropical waves moving across the basin. 

Scattered showers and a few mild thunderstorms dot the waters
north of 17.5N south of Hispaniola to eastern Jamaica and the
Windward Passage, as well as north of 20N across the waters of
western Cuba. Drier conditions are prevalent elsewhere, except for
scattered showers across the southeast Caribbean trailing the
tropical wave there. The tight pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge extending from near Bermuda to northern Florida
and Georgia, and lower pressures in NW Colombia result in strong 
to near gale-force easterly winds in the south- central 
Caribbean. This was confirmed by overnight satellite scatterometer
data. These winds are supporting rough seas to near 11 ft off the
coast of Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and 
moderate seas are occurring in the north-central Caribbean, 
including the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and 
Gulf of Honduras. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas 
across the south-central Caribbean will expand across most of the 
central and into the west-central basin, including through the 
Windward Passage, today through Sat morning, as central Atlantic 
high pressure along 31N-32N gradually shifts westward to near 75W.
Strong to near gale-force winds are expected offshore of northern
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night and early 
morning into Sat. Scattered showers will move westward through the
coastal waters of the Greater Antilles through Fri, associated
with the passing tropical waves. Winds and seas will diminish 
slightly Sat into early next week as high pressure weakens north 
of the area. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh E to NE winds 
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each afternoon and evening 
into this weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
will continue in the eastern basin into next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information of the
tropical waves moving across the basin. 

An upper level low centered off the NW Bahamas is interacting with
low level moisture shearing NW and away from the western Caribbean 
tropical wave, resulting in scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms affecting the NW Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic
waters and into the southeast Florida coastal waters. Similar
shower and thunderstorm activity is across the Atlantic waters of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, occurring across northern portions of
the eastern Caribbean tropical wave. Farther northeast, another 
upper level low situated east of Bermuda supports a scattered 
showers north of 28N and between 53W and 64W. The remainder of 
the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a subtropical 
ridge extending from a 1024 mb high just east of Bermuda. 
Satellite scatterometer data depicts fresh to locally strong 
easterly winds between the SE Bahamas and the offshore waters
north of Puerto Rico, including the entrance of the Windward 
Passage. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh 
easterly winds and moderate seas are found south of 25N and west 
of 50W.

In the north-central Atlantic, a dissipating cold front extends
from 31N31W to 21N54W. A few showers are along the boundary. 
Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are 
occurring north of this dissipating boundary. In the far NE 
Atlantic, fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present 
north of 29N and east of 15W. In the rest of the basin, moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE 
winds are expected north of the Greater Antilles to 26N and off 
the coast of Florida west of 76W today as high pressure in the 
central Atlantic along 31N-32N builds westward into Florida, in 
the wake of westward moving low pressure over the NE Gulf of 
America. Scattered squalls and thunderstorms will move through the
northern Bahamas and southeast Florida coastal waters this morning
and into the central Florida near and offshore waters this
afternoon and evening, associated with a tropical wave passing 
south of the area. Fresh winds will pulse to strong each evening 
and night off the coast of northern Hispaniola into early Sat. 
Winds will diminish off the coast of Florida by early Fri, and 
north of the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas by Sat morning as 
high pressure shifts to near 29N75W and weakens. South of 20N, 
moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate seas will 
prevail through this weekend. 

$$
Stripling