000
AXNT20 KNHC 070631
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jan 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: 
Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir marine zone
near the Canary Islands until 07/09 UTC . 

For more information, please visit Meteo-France's website at:
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone, then reaches southwestward to 
04N19W. An ITCZ continues westward from 04N19W across 05N35W to 
northeast of French Guiana at 06N50W. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 05N
between 10W and 17W, and also near and up to 80 nm north of the
ITCZ between 30W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A diurnal surface trough is causing scattered showers at the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1017 mb high at the central
Gulf along with a 1018 mb high off southwestern Florida are
dominating the Gulf much of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to SE
winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the eastern Bay of
Campeche, and offshore of Tampico and the Yucatan Peninsula. 
Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of 
the Gulf.

For the forecast, widespread fresh S to SE winds and moderate 
seas are expected to develop west of 90W by Wed night as the 
pressure gradient increases between ridging over the eastern Gulf
and a developing storm system in the central United States. 
Strong winds will pulse offshore of south Texas and northeastern 
Mexico on Thu, and locally rough seas may accompany these winds. 
Moderate to fresh SE winds will expand eastward over much of the 
Gulf on Thu, with these winds continuing through Fri. Looking 
ahead, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early this 
weekend. Widespread fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas 
are expected in the wake of the front as it sweeps over the Gulf 
into early next week. Gale force winds will be possible offshore 
of Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Sat through Sun night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent surface trough is triggering scattered showers south
of the Yucatan Channel, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Widely 
scattered showers are found farther east at the lee of Cuba and 
near Jamaica. The dissipating tail-end of a cold front runs 
southwestward from the northern Leeward Islands to the south- 
central basin. Patchy showers are noted across the eastern Basin. 
Fresh to locally strong NE to ENE winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft 
dominate the south-central basin, while moderate to fresh E winds 
and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist at the north-central Gulf. Gentle with
locally moderate NE to ESE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas dominate 
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, strong to occasionally near-gale force NE to E 
winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia through this 
weekend as low pressure prevails over the region. Rough seas will 
occur near and to the west of these winds. Strong winds are also 
expected each afternoon and evening in the Gulf of Venezuela 
starting on Thu. Fresh NE to E winds will occur over the central 
Caribbean tonight, including through the Windward Passage, with 
widespread fresh winds developing over much of the basin by Thu 
night as the pressure gradient increases between the Colombian low
and high pressure to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected
through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola nightly 
starting on Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for 
a Meteo-France Gale Warning.

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N45W to 24N53W, then becomes a warm front to a 1010 mb 
low near 22N58W. A weak cold front runs southwestward from this 
low to the central Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring up to 80 nm along either side of the first cold/warm
front. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near the low
and second cold front from 18N to 22N between 56W and 61W. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in
the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6
to 9 ft are found near the aforementioned frontal boundaries,
north of 20N between 50W and 60W. To the west, gentle to moderate
E to SE to SSW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas in moderate N swell exist
north of 20N and west of 60W. For the central Atlantic north of
20N between 35W and 50W, moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas
at 6 to 8 ft are evident. For the tropical Atlantic from 03N to
20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh ENE to SE winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate NE
swell are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of
35W, light to gentle with locally moderate E to SE winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds and 
rough seas occurring east of 65W will slowly diminish through Wed 
morning. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds will occur north of
29N and west of 70W through Wed as a surface trough develops to 
the north and moves eastward. Moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are then expected over the northwest tropical 
Atlantic on Thu as a weak pressure gradient develops. Looking 
ahead, high pressure building off the coast of the eastern United 
States on Fri will support moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
and building seas over the region through this weekend.

$$

Chan