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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



111 
AXNT20 KNHC 201751
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Oct 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Epsilon is centered near 26.5N 55.0W at 20/1500
UTC or 615 nm ESE of Bermuda moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are up to 24 ft, with 12 ft 
seas extending 540 nm NE quadrant, 120 nm SE quadrant, 270 nm SW
quadrant, and 480 nm NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection extends outward 420 nm from the center in the
NE quadrant, 390 nm SE quad, 90 nm SW quad and 120 nm NW quad. A
NW motion with a slightly faster forward speed is forecast over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Epsilon is
forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its
closest approach to the island on Friday. Gradual strengthening
is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is
forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by Thursday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 32N14W to
the Canary Islands near 28N18W to 27N25W. An ASCAT pass from
around 20/1000 UTC showed gale force SSW winds to 35 kt along and
within 30 nm east of the cold front from 30N northward. The cold
front is moving eastward. According to Meteo France, the Gale
Warning has expired as of 20/1500 UTC. Please see the latest High
Seas Forecast and High Seas Warning products from Meteo France at
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 23W from
from 02N-17N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-12N between 20W-32W.

The Atlantic tropical wave that was analyzed along 44W at 20/0600
UTC has been relocated slightly eastward to 42W, from 03N-17N,
based on recent satellite data. The wave is moving W around 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-17N between
36W-43W.

An Atlantic tropical wave that was analyzed along 53W at 20/0600
UTC has dissipated and has been removed from the analysis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 72W from
05N-18N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered strong convection is
seen from 10N-14N between 69W-72W.

A tropical wave along 88W from 20N southward into the East
Pacific is moving inland over Belize and Central America. The
tropical wave is moving W at 10 kt. Convection associated
with this wave is confined to the Pacific waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 
12N16W to 09N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 08N40W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave from 08N44W to 10N51W to 10N59W.
Aside from the convection mentioned above in the Tropical
Waves section, scattered showers are near the ITCZ between
45W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 24N87.5W to a 1007 mb low just E of
Cozumel Mexico near 21N86W. The pressure gradient between the low
near Cozumel and a 1023 mb high over the SE U.S. near 34N85W is
producing strong E winds across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from
23.5N-28N, between 90W and Florida. A significant wave height of
9 ft was recently observed by buoy 42003 at 25.9N 85.6W. In the
mid-levels, a mid-level low is present over and just east of the
surface low near Cozumel. Abundant moisture and upper-level
diffluence over the area are enhancing scattered moderate showers
and isolated tstorms over the SE Gulf of Mexico mainly south of
27.5N and east of 89W, including over portions of South Florida.

The strong easterly winds and building seas will continue over
the southeast Gulf through early Thu. Gentle to moderate winds
under a weaker pressure gradient will prevail elsewhere through
the forecast period. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 24N87.5W to a 1007 mb low just E of
Cozumel Mexico near 21N86W to another 1007 mb low in the SW
Caribbean near 13N81W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated
tstorms prevail across the entire western and central Caribbean,
west of 72W. Scattered strong convection is occurring east of a
tropical wave, from 10N-14N between 69W-72W. Comparatively drier
air is seen over the remainder of the eastern Caribbean. A recent
ASCAT pass shows mainly gentle to moderate trades across most of
the basin, with locally fresh SE winds seen south of west-central
Cuba.

The large low pressure trough over the western Caribbean will
drift westward over the next couple of days, enhancing shower and
thunderstorm activity across the western Caribbean and adjacent
land areas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Storm Epsilon and the Tropical Waves section for 
information on the two tropical waves in this basin.

A surface trough extends from 21N58W to 21N63W to 22N68W. A tail
of enhanced moisture is seen on TPW imagery extending from south
of T.S. Epsilon, over the surface trough, and then continuing to
25N75W through the NW Bahamas to South Florida. Scattered
moderate showers and tstorms prevail within 60 nm either side of
the surface trough and moisture plume between 59W-81W. A recent
ASCAT pass shows strong NE to E winds from 23N-30N between
63W-74W. Fresh E winds are from 25N-32N between 74W-81W.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 25N47W to 28N40W to
28N35W. Isolated strong convection is from 24N-29N between
34W-40W. A 1017 mb surface high is near 24N30W. A cold front is
from 32N14W to the Canary Islands near 28N18W to 27N25W.
Scattered moderate convection is east of the cold front, mainly
north of 28N and east of 14W. See the Special Features section
above for details on the Gale Warning associated with this cold
front. A recent ASCAT pass shows that winds in excess of 25 kt
associated with the circulation of T.S. Epsilon prevail across
the basin from 21N-37N between 42W-63W.

Tropical Storm Epsilon will move to near 28N58W Wed morning,
then strengthen to a hurricane near 31N61W Thu evening and to
near 34.5N61W Sat morning. The pressure gradient between high 
pressure over the SE U.S. and Epsilon will maintain fresh
to strong northeast to east winds over the waters west of 65W
through Thu. Expect for northeast to east swell to impact the
waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through Saturday.

$$ 

Hagen