000
AXNT20 KNHC 301559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Jul 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30.5W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 06N to 14N and between 28W and 32W. 

An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46.5W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is 
depicted from 06N to 15N between 43.5W and 51W

An central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted at
this time in association with this wave. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is evident
from 17N to 20N between 81W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 11N35W to 
08N59W. A weak 1015 mb low pressure is along the monsoon trough 
near 11N39W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N 
to 12N between 36W and 39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A mid to upper level trough reaches from the south-central Gulf to
the north-cetral Gulf. Upper level dynamics west of the trough is
supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms off the northern 
Gulf coast and portions of the central Gulf, particularly off
southern Louisiana. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient 
sustains light to gentle winds and slight seas across the basin. 
However, mariners should expect stronger winds and higher seas 
near the strongest convection. 

For the forecast, fairly weak high pressure will dominate the 
basin through the period, supporting mostly gentle to moderate 
breezes and slight to moderate seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous thunderstorms are active along the monsoon trough over
the far southwestern Caribbean along the coast from Panama and
Costa Rica. Isolated moderated convection is also found over the
Gulf of Nicaragua. Drier conditions are prevalent in the 
remainder of the basin. The pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in 
northern South America force fresh to strong easterly trade winds 
over much of the central Caribbean. Seas 5 to 8 ft are noted in 
these waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and 
moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean, while light to 
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh winds
and rough seas over the central Caribbean through Sat, with winds
pulsing to strong off the coast of Colombia. Generally moderate 
winds and seas will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave accompanied
by scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected to move 
through the tropical Atlantic waters Fri through early Sat and 
through the eastern Caribbean later on Sat and through Sun, 
reaching the central Caribbean late Sun. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 28N65W to a 1018 mb low pressure 
near 26N66W to 24N68W. Numerous moderate convection is depicted 
from 24N to 31N between 53W and 69W in association with the 
trough. Farther west, 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 
25.5N72W. This pattern is supporting mostly gentle breezes and 2 
to 4 ft seas west of 65W. Farther east, the central and eastern 
Atlantic are under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge
centered by 1031 mb high pressure north of the Azores. The 
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in 
northwest Africa sustain moderate to fresh N-NE winds and moderate
seas north of 20N and east of 35W. Mainly moderate easterly winds
and moderate seas are occurring south of 20N and west of 35W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the 
weather pattern across the forecast through the period, supporting
mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over 
the region. The northern portion of a tropical wave may bring 
fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds and rough seas 
north of the Leeward Islands Fri through Sat night, then possibly 
to the waters north of Hispaniola and east of the southern Bahamas
Sun and Sun night. 

$$ KRV