AXNT20 KNHC 201038
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Oct 20 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Epsilon is centered near 25.6N 54.7W at 20/0900
UTC or 660 nm SE of Bermuda moving ENE at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas are up to 23 ft, with 12 ft
seas extending 540 nm NE quadrant, 60 nm SE quadrant, 270 nm SW
quadrant, and 480 nm NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is north of 20N between 36W-58W. A turn toward
the north and northwest is expected later today, with a general
northwestward motion expected through Thursday. On the forecast
track, Epsilon is forecast to approach Bermuda on Thursday. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.
A tropical wave extends across the east Atlantic with axis along
18N from 03N-17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-10N between 17W-
An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 44W from 00N-14N,
moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is related to this
wave at this time.
An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 54W from 02N-17N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is related to
this wave at this time.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 70W from
08N-19N, moving W at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted along and west of the wave axis mainly
A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 87W from 20N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted
in the vicinity of the wave, affecting Central America at this
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
11N15W to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 07N42W, then
resumes near 07N45W to 10N52W, then again from 10N55W to 10N60W.
No significant convection is noted, aside from the convection
mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging prevails over the western Gulf of Mexico
anchored by high pressure over the SE U.S. A surface trough
extends from the NW Caribbean over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of
Florida and western Cuba. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted
in scatterometer data over the southeast while gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere.
The combination of high pressure over the eastern United States
and broad low pressure over western Cuba and the far southeastern
Gulf will continue supporting fresh to strong easterly winds and
building seas through Wed over the southeast Gulf. Gentle to
moderate winds under a weaker pressure gradient will prevail
elsewhere through the forecast period.
Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information
on the two tropical waves in this basin.
A 1007 mb surface low in the SW Caribbean is located near 12N81W
with a trough extending NW from the low to 24N87W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted across the west-central Caribbean
between 70W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
trades across the basin. Seas average between 3-5 ft, except 4-6
ft in the Yucatan Channel.
The tropical wave over the western Caribbean will move inland
over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America today. The broad
area of low pressure in the west-central Caribbean is forecast to
move slowly westward toward the Yucatan peninsula over the next
day or two. Expect unsettled weather over the western Caribbean
and near the Yucatan Peninsula through Wed.
Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Epsilon and the Tropical Waves section for
information on the three tropical waves in this basin.
Scattered showers prevail across the west Atlantic mainly west of
76W. Outside of T.S. Epsilon, moderate to fresh easterly winds
were noted in earlier scatterometer data in the western Atlantic
off the coast of Florida and the Bahamas with seas up to 9 ft.
Seas are higher a little farther east and closer to Epsilon. Seas
average 3-5 ft across the rest of the basin.
Tropical Storm Epsilon near 25.6N 54.7W 998 mb at 5 AM EDT moving
ENE at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Epsilon
will move to 26.6N 55.6W this afternoon, 27.8N 57.4W Wed morning,
28.5N 59.1W Wed afternoon, 29.4N 60.1W Thu morning, strengthen to
a hurricane near 30.6N 60.9W Thu afternoon, and 31.6N 61.4W Fri
morning. Epsilon will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 33.5N 62.0W by early Sat. The pressure gradient between high
pressure over the western Atlantic and Epsilon will maintain fresh
to strong northeast to east winds over the western waters through
Thu. Expect for northeast to east swell to impact the waters
north and northeast of the Bahamas through the forecast period.