775 
AXNT20 KNHC 072313
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jun 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 28W, south of 12N, moving westward at 
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
observed where the wave meets the monsoon trough, from 02N to 08N
between 22W and 33W.

A tropical wave is along 40W, south of 16.5N, moving westward at 
around 15 kt. A few showers are noted on either side of the wave 
axis.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 66W, south of
17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is S of 11.5N between 59W and 66W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea near 72W, south 
of 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave is interacting
with an upper level low center to its W, producing scattered
moderate convection from 10N to 19N between 70W and 80W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea along 86W, south 
of 20N to across western Panama and into the eastern Pacific 
Ocean, slowly moving around 5 kt. Most of the convection related 
to this wave is over the EPAC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14.5N17W, and continues southwestward to 04.5N31W. 
The ITCZ extends from 04.5N31W to the coast of Brazil near 
02N50.5W. Other than the convection associated with two tropical 
waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed 
near the coast of W Africa, covering the waters from 02N to 11.5N
and east of 22W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure located over the western Atlantic just E of Bermuda
extends a ridge across the SE of United States, including N Florida,
and into the NE Gulf region. This system is supporting gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds east of 90W, with seas 2 to 3 ft, while 
moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas 4 to 6 ft prevail 
west of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is seen across the
western Gulf, west of 94W.

For the forecast, broad high pressure offshore the SE coast of 
the U.S. will generally support gentle to moderate E to SE winds 
in the north-central and NE Gulf, and moderate to fresh E to 
winds over most of the western half of the basin through Mon 
night, with slight to moderate seas. Stronger western Atlantic 
ridging will then expand westward across the northern Gulf 
starting on Tue providing for mostly gentle to moderate E to SE
winds south of about 26N and west of 87W, and in the far 
southeastern Gulf section through Thu, with slight to moderate 
seas. A trough, or low pressure may emerge from the Yucatan 
Peninsula into the south central or southwestern portions of the 
Gulf, from late Thu through Fri night, accompanied by numerous 
showers and thunderstorms and fresh to strong winds and building 
seas. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will move off the Yucatan 
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche at night through 
Wed attendant by fresh to strong winds and slight to moderate 
seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more details, 
including any associated significant convection. 

Otherwise, high pressure north of the area centered SW of the
Azores extends a ridge to the SE Bahamas. This pattern supports 
moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas to
6 ft across the majority of the basin, with the exception of the 
SW Caribbean where light to gentle winds are noted. An upper level
trough over the west-central Caribbean is helping to induce 
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Passage, 
between Haiti and Jamaica, and over the central Caribbean south of
17N between 68W and 82W. Elsewhere, patches of low level clouds, 
embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted producing isolated to 
scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will maintain moderate to 
fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the the majority of 
the basin tonight. As the ridge begins to strengthen N of the
region Mon, expect an increase of the trade winds to fresh to 
strong speeds starting early Mon evening in the central and 
northwestern sections of the basin, and lasting through the rest 
of the period. Trade winds of fresh speeds are expected over the 
eastern section of the basin starting Wed night. The trade winds 
in the northwestern part of the basin are expected to become fresh
to strong, predominately southeast in direction, beginning on Wed
as a trough, or low pressure may shift northward or northwestward
from the Yucatan Peninsula into the south-central or southwestern
portions of the Gulf of America.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving westward between the western coast 
of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical 
Waves section for more details including any related significant 
convection.

A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends from
near 30N67W to the central Bahamas and into eastern Cuba. 
Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are along and 
ahead of this trough, affecting the SE Bahamas, the Turks and 
Caicos Islands, and northern Hispaniola. A 1022 mb high pressure 
located just E of Bermuda extends a ridge W-SW and to the north 
of this trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is 
dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1032 mb 
high pressure situated SW of the Azores near 34N32W. Under the 
influence of this system, a gentle to moderate E to SE flow is 
seen N of 20N E of the trough to about 48W. Fresh to locally 
strong NE to E winds and rough seas are found north of 20N and 
east of 44W, including the Canary Islands. The strongest winds are
between the islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas to
7 ft are elsewhere S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the 
Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough from 30N67W through
the SE Bahamas will remain nearly stationary through the early 
part of the week. A weak cold front will move into the north- 
central waters Tue, then stall near 27N through Wed, and gradually
dissipate by Thu. High pressure will shift eastward in the wake of
the front, to the north of the area through the end of the week 
while weakening, with ridging extending into southeastern 
Georgia. The related pressure gradient will allow for gentle to 
moderate winds and slight seas west of 64W, and moderate seas east
of 64W. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected between the 
southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, and westward to the waters 
between the Bahamas and Cuba beginning late Wed night. Increasing 
moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions is likely to 
impact the far western section of the basin during the week.

$$
Stripling