508 
AXNT20 KNHC 142050
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu May 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 11N15.5W and continues southwestward to 16N19W. The 
ITCZ continues from 16N19W to to 03N25W to 04N51W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N
between 10W and 16W, and from 01N to 06N between 20W and 44W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure is across the basin anchored by a 1017 mb 
high center over the SE Gulf. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh return flow is
over the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 2-5 ft
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the southeastern Gulf 
will drift northeastward across the Florida Peninsula and merge 
with the Atlantic ridge tonight through Fri. This will maintain 
fresh to briefly strong SE to S return flow across most of the 
western Gulf through the weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A ridge of high pressure extends across the western Atlantic. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low is
supporting moderate to fresh winds E of 80W, where seas are in
the 5-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft,
prevail over the western Caribbean.  

For the forecast, high pressure across the NW Atlantic extends a
ridge southwestward to the NW Bahamas, while the remnants of a 
frontal trough persist offshore of Florida along 78W-79W. This 
pattern is producing moderate to fresh trade winds S of 23N and E
of 65W, and moderate to fresh SE to S winds between 65W and 75W.
The high will slide SE and into the central Atlantic through the
upcoming weekend, with ridging extending westward into central 
Florida. This will gradually lead to anticyclonic winds across 
the entire area by the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds and
rough seas in mixed NE and E swell will prevail south of 22N 
this week, including across the Atlantic passages into the 
eastern Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends off the waters east of Florida. Light to
gentle winds are in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure
dominates the remainder of the discussion waters. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the waters N of 20N, with moderate to
fresh winds S of 20N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the
waters N of 20N, and 5-8 ft S of 20N. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure across the NW 
Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward to the NW Bahamas, while 
the remnants of a frontal trough persist offshore of Florida along
78W and 9W. This pattern is producing moderate to fresh trade 
winds S of 25N and E of 65W, and moderate to fresh southeast to 
south return flow between 65W and 75W. The high will slide east-
southeastward into the central Atlantic through the upcoming 
weekend, with ridging extending westward into central Florida. 
This will gradually lead to anticyclonic winds across the entire 
area by the weekend. Pulsing fresh east winds are expected each 
afternoon and evening offshore of northern Hispaniola through 
Fri. Moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas in mixed NE 
and SE swell will prevail S of 25N this week, including through 
the Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean. 

$$
AL