215 
AXNT20 KNHC 041042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jan 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W and continues to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 
03N18W to 03N34W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 180 NM either side of both the monsoon and the ITCZ between
10W and 34W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from Cedar Key, Florida to NE Mexico. No 
significant convection is evident across the Gulf waters.
Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas follow the front, 
while light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail ahead of the
frontal boundary.

For the forecast, the cold front will be followed by moderate to 
fresh NE winds through today, then the front is forecast to move 
E of the basin. High pressure will settle over the basin tonight 
into Mon, leading to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas, 
except for moderate to fresh S winds developing W of 95W Mon 
through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extending from E Cuba to offshore NW Colombia is
generating scattered heavy showers and tstms between Jamaica and
Haiti, including the Windward Passage. A cold front moving across
the SW N Atlantic waters is allowing a weak pressure gradient over
the western basin, thus supporting moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas. However, surface ridging from high pressure of 1023
mb over the NE subtropical Atlantic, is supporting moderate to
fresh trades over the central and eastern Caribbean along with
moderate seas.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the central and 
southeastern Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds 
by this evening as the subtropical ridge north N of the area 
shifts eastward while a cold front moves into the western 
subtropical Atlantic. Fresh NE to E winds are forecast to develop 
south of Hispaniola and Cuba, and through the Atlantic passages 
tonight through Thu night as high pressure builds to the north, 
behind the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will also resume 
off Colombia Tue night and prevail through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1004 mb low offshore North Carolina extends a cold front that
reaches from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral this morning. Scattered
showers are ahead of the front reaching as far south as Freeport
in the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the
front N of 28N and as far east of the front as 63W. Fresh winds
follow the front. The remainder basin is under the influence of a
broad surface ridge that is supporting moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas elsewhere across the subtropical waters, except
for decaying swell supporting rough seas N of 20N and E of 31W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds will 
continue affect the northern offshore zones today ahead of a cold 
front forecast to reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas by 
this evening and from 31N55W to just N of the Puerto Rico offshore
waters Mon morning. Rough seas affecting the northern SW N 
Atlantic offshores will subside late Tue. High pressure will build
behind the front Thu.

$$
Ramos