508 
AXNT20 KNHC 212320
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu May 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 31W, to the south of 13N, 
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
where the wave meets the ITCZ. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 09N13W 
and extends southwestward to near 05N23W. The ITCZ continues 
from 05N23W to 04N35W to 00N50W. Aside from the convection 
associated with the tropical wave, a cluster of moderate to
strong convection covers the waters from 05N to 07N between 12W
and 15W. Elsewhere from 03N to 05N between 10W and 25W scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front crosses the western Florida Panhandle, the NE Gulf 
and SE Louisiana, then continues as a stationary front over the
NW Gulf and Texas. The front is generating scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. A surface trough is analyzed over the
SW Gulf while a weak ridge dominates the remainder of the basin. 
Moderate SE winds are observed on the E side of the trough that 
extends from 26N93W to the central Bay of Campeche. Light to 
gentle winds are noted elsewhere, except in the vicinity of the 
front where moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring. Seas 
are 3 to 4 ft W of 88W, and 1 to 3 ft E of 88W. Winds and seas 
could be higher near thunderstorms.

For the forecast, a weak cold front over the northern waters 
will sink southeastward through Fri, then stall and lift north 
while dissipating. High pressure will build in the wake of this 
front and dominate the basin. Gentle to moderate winds will 
freshen in the western Gulf starting Sat night. E winds will 
pulse fresh to locally strong along and just north of the Yucatan
Peninsula each afternoon and evening through the period as a 
trough develops daily and drifts westward at night. Smoke from 
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are expected to 
maintain hazy sky conditions across the Bay of Campeche and 
western Gulf through the period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered E of the Bahamas near
25N70W, and extends a ridge westward toward the NW Bahamas and
SE Florida. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and 
the Colombia Low is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds 
across the east and central Caribbean, as well as in the Gulf of
Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are observed across 
the remainder of the Caribbean. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, 
with the exception of 4 to 6 ft over the south-central Caribbean 
based on buoy observations, and 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba, the
the Windward Passage, and regional waters of Puerto Rico. The 
East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean, 
and is helping to induce some shower and thunderstorm activity. 
Thunderstorms continue to flare-up over the Greater Antilles due 
to local effects like the daytime heating, local sea breezes and
mountain upslope lifting. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade
winds flow are noted elsewhere producing isolated to scattered 
passing showers.

For the forecast, a ridge will gradually build north of the 
Caribbean through the remainder of the week into the weekend. 
Moderate to fresh winds in the central Caribbean will strengthen 
this evening through the upcoming weekend and gradually expand 
westward to Nicaragua. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds 
across the Gulf of Honduras through the period. Moderate trades 
in the eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic will freshen Fri
into the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N50W and extends
southwestward to 28N65W. A few showers and thunderstorms are
ahead of the front. The pressure gradient between a 1031 mb high
pressure located just S of the Azores and the cold front supports
an area of fresh to strong S to SW winds N of 26N between the 
front and 49W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft within these winds. As previously
mentioned, a 1017 mb high pressure is located E of the Bahamas 
near 25N70W. Under this weather pattern, gentle to moderate winds
are over the waters W of 60W, with a moderate anticyclonic flow 
prevailing between 20W and 60W. The pressure gradient also 
tightens between the Azores High and lower pressures over NW 
Africa, resulting in fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas
from 20N to 29N E of 20W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere, except in the
vicinity of the Bahamas and coastal waters of E Florida where slight
seas are observed.

satellite imagery and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL)tracking product
from CIMSS indicate another outbreak of African dust over the 
eastern Atlantic, mainly E of 30W. Saharan Air Layer activity 
usually ramps up in mid-June, peaks from late June to mid-August 
and begins to rapidly diminish after mid-August.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure will prevail 
S of 28N as a series of weak troughs move across the northern 
waters through the period. High pressure will build modestly Thu 
into the weekend. The resultant pressure gradient south of the 
high pressure will tighten by the end of the week, supporting 
fresh winds S of 22N.

$$
GR