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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 231204

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1100 UTC.


A broad area of low pressure is near the coast of northeastern 
Belize. A large area of cloudiness and rainshowers covers the area
from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba, and into Straits
of Florida. Little development is expected during the next couple
of days, due to strong upper level winds and proximity to the 
Yucatan Peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
become more conducive for development after the next 48 hours or
so. It is possible that a subtropical or tropical depression 
may form this weekend in the eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. 
Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the western sections of 
Cuba and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and in  
much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. 
Please stay tuned to forecasts that are issued by your local
weather office for more details. The chance for formation into
a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is low.


A tropical wave is along 41W/43W, from 10N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb 
trough. rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of 
the wave.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near
11N15W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01N30W to 
02N40W. The ITCZ resumes W of the tropical wave near 02N43W and
reaches the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Isolated moderate 
convection is from 00N-04N between 02W-22W. Similar convection is
from 05S-03N between 23W-30W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the coast of Brazil from 02S-01N
between 46W-51W.  



10-15 kt E to SE surface return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico.
Presently scattered showers are over portions of the Florida
Peninsula, the Straits of Florida, and W Cuba. 

An upper level trough is in place over the far E Gulf of Mexico 
and Florida. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough axis, over 
the W Atlantic. A second upper level trough has entered the NW 
Gulf. An upper level ridge is over the central Gulf in between the
two troughs. 

An Atlantic surface ridge extending into the northern Gulf of
Mexico will shift eastward through Fri. An area of low pressure 
is expected to develop off the northern coast of Yucatan on Fri. 
The tropical low will move slowly northward in the eastern Gulf 
this weekend, with highest winds and seas east of the low.


Please read the Special Features section above. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection is inland over Central America from
the Yucatan Peninsula to Panama. An area of scattered moderate
convection is S of Cuba from 16N-22N between 77W-83W. 

An upper level ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 70W with
considerable upper level moisture. An upper level trough is over
the E Caribbean with strong subsidence E of 70W and N of 12N.

A surface ridge north of the area will maintain fresh trade 
winds in the central Caribbean through Thu, with strong winds 
expected along the northern coast of Colombia. A broad low near 
Belize will drift northward into the Gulf of Mexico through Fri. 
Fresh to strong SE winds and building seas are possible in the NW
Caribbean Thu night and Fri as the low develops.


Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic W of 74W to include the
Bahamas and Florida. A 1027 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 31N50W producing fair weather. 

An E-to-W oriented ridge along 30N will support moderate to fresh 
trade winds south of 22N this week, with winds pulsing to strong
N of Hispaniola at night. Winds and seas will diminish slightly 
Fri as the ridge shifts east. An area of low pressure in the
Gulf of Mexico will increase SE winds west of 77W this weekend.

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