000
AXNT20 KNHC 081745
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Dec 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front that moved
into western portion of the Gulf last night presently extends
along a position from just south of Tallahassee, FL southwestward
to near 20N96W and then inland over Mexico. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms follow the front near and just offshore of
the Mexican coast. The front will sweep southeastward across the 
rest of the basin through Tue, perhaps stalling from near western 
Cuba and the Straits of Florida by Tue evening. Fresh to strong 
northwest to north winds and rough seas are expected to follow 
behind the front across the western and northern Gulf. These 
winds will reach near-gale to gale-force off Veracruz this 
afternoon into this evening along with seas building to around 12 
ft (4 M). A 1604 UTC scatterometer pass indicated gale-force winds
in convection immediately following the cold front. Seas following
the cold front are currently analyzed at 5-8 ft. Afterward, winds
and seas will gradually diminish Tue into Wed as the front stalls
from near western Cuba and the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan 
Peninsula by Tue evening, and as high pressure settles across the 
central Gulf.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
southern Sierra Leone and extends to near 05N18W. The ITCZ then
continues from 05N18W to 01.5N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen S of 07N between 23W and 37W, with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms seen along these features and E of 23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a
cold front that will bring gale conditions to areas offshore of 
Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon.

For the remainder of the Gulf ahead of the cold front, a surface
trough is analyzed from the eastern Bay of Campeche into the SE
Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the vicinity of 
the trough. Another cold front segment extends from near Sarasota,
FL to near 25N87W, with scattered showers in the area. Otherwise,
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail away from the
cold front. 

For the forecast, a strong cold front extending from the Florida 
Panhandle to the western Bay of Campeche will progress 
southeastward over the basin early this week. Gale force winds and
localized very rough seas are expected offshore of Veracruz this 
afternoon and evening, with strong winds continuing in this region
into early Tue. Widespread strong N winds and rough seas will 
occur in the wake of the front over the central and western Gulf 
into early Tue, with mainly fresh winds and moderate seas expected
in the eastern basin. Winds and seas will diminish from northwest
to southeast through Tue as the front stalls near the Yucatan 
Peninsula and eventually dissipates around midweek. Looking ahead,
weak high pressure will build over the basin later this week, 
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic ridging continues to influence the pressure gradient 
across the basin. It is presently allowing for moderate to fresh 
trade winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the eastern and 
central sections of the basin while light to gentle winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft are elsewhere across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and 
moderate seas are expected over the central and eastern Caribbean 
through Tue as weak ridging prevails over the central Atlantic. 
Winds may pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela and 
offshore of northern Colombia by Tue night, and locally rough seas
may develop near and to the west of these winds. An increasing 
pressure gradient between a weakening cold front approaching the 
northwestern Caribbean and low pressure in the south-central basin
will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the 
central Caribbean for mid to late week. Elsewhere, a persistent E 
swell will continue to lead to rough seas over the Atlantic waters
and passages of the Lesser Antilles into early Wed before seas 
slightly subside. A new mixed N and E swell will renew rough seas 
over this region late Wed through the rest of the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A complex frontal boundary in the W Atlantic is analyzed from
31N36W along 30/31N to a 1010 mb low pres near 30N72W, with the
boundary then extending southwestward to the FL coast near Port
St. Lucie. Scattered moderate convection is seen ahead of this
front generally N of 27N and W of 69W. A trough runs from north to
south through another frontal low near 28N78W, and is also kicking
off scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Bahamas.
A scatterometer pass from 1504 UTC indicated strong to near gale
force SW winds ahead of the front generally N of 26N and W of 70W.
Gale-force winds are occurring in the pre-frontal convection. To 
the north, Another weak cold front reaches from 31N77W to near 
Daytona Beach, FL. Moderate to fresh NW winds are following this
front. In the East Atlantic, a pre- frontal trough runs from 
30N35W to 26N47W, with scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms seen along and ahead of this trough out to about 
28W. Marine conditions in this region, confirmed by scatterometer
and altimeter data, are characterized by fresh to strong SW winds
and seas of 12-16 ft in NW swell N of 26N between 20W and 45W.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, surface ridging prevails. Fresh to
strong trades and 6-9 ft seas are prevalent across much of the
Atlantic S of 20N. From 20N to 26N and E of 45W, moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 6-10 ft in NW swell prevail. For the
remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 
30.5N72.5W to central Florida will progress eastward early this 
week, and fresh to strong SW winds are expected ahead of the front
north of 27N through Tue. Rough seas in W swell will develop in 
this region east of 70W today, and expand eastward into the 
central Atlantic by tonight. Very rough seas over 12 ft will be 
possible north of 30N and east of 62W by Tue morning. A second, 
stronger cold front pushing off the coast of the southeastern 
United States will rapidly progress eastward through midweek, and 
widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds are expected in the wake 
of the front, generally north of 27N and west of 70W by late 
tonight, with these winds also expanding eastward toward the 
central Atlantic through Tue. A new N swell will support rough 
seas over the northwest tropical Atlantic by late tonight, before 
merging with the aforementioned rough seas in the central basin on
Tue. Winds will diminish from west to east Tue into early Wed, 
with rough seas slowly subsiding through late week. Looking ahead,
fresh to locally strong SW winds may develop off the coast of 
Florida mid to late week as a low pressure system moves off the 
east coast of the U.S. 

$$ 
Adams