000
AXNT20 KNHC 162302
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Feb 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front moving across the
western Atlantic extends through 31N73W southwestward across the 
far NW Bahamas and across the Florida Keys into the SE Gulf of 
America. Midday satellite scatterometer data showed S to SW winds 
to 40 kt occurring within a broken band of convection, along and 
within 90 nm ahead of the front, with strong to near-gale force 
winds within 300 nm ahead of the front, north of 27N. Rough seas
of 8 to 12 ft are also ongoing in the same area, and following 
the front west to 78W. The cold front will reach from near 31N79W 
to the NW Bahamas and to west-central Cuba this evening, at which
time these gale-force winds are expected to shift north of 31N.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis remains over the African continent at this
time. The ITCZ extends from 05N14W to 02.5S33W to the coast of
Brazil near 02.5S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is active from 01N to 07.5N between 10W and 28W, and also S of 02N
between 45W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from the western Atlantic southwestward
across the Florida Keys Florida near Chokoloskee to near 23.5N87W,
then continues as a frontal trough to the central Bay of Campeche
near 18.5N94W. 1021 mb high pressure is behind the front, centered
over NE Louisiana. The resulting pressure gradient is producing moderate
N winds and 3 to 5 ft seas behind the front and E of 87W. Light to
gentle NE breezes prevail elsewhere across the basin, becoming E
to SE across the NW part and into the Texas coast. Slight seas of
3 ft and less, with generally fair skies prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and exit the basin 
this evening. Moderate N to NE winds over the E Gulf behind the 
front will briefly diminish by Tue morning as a surface ridge 
begins to slide eastward across the northern Gulf. However, the 
pressure gradient will tighten over the western half of the Gulf 
on Tue as a very broad area of low pressure deepens over the NW 
CONUS. This will result in moderate to fresh southerly winds that
will expand to the eastern half of the basin by Thu morning ahead
of the next cold front, forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active near surface
trough extending from central Cuba to W of Grand Cayman Island
near 19N83W. Farther south, scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are active over coastal portions of Colombia. High pressure is
centered over the central Atlantic and extends a ridge
southwestward to the SE Bahamas and E Cuba. To the south of the
ridge, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the south
central Caribbean S of 14N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft, except to
near 8 ft off NW Colombia. Elsewhere E of the surface trough,
moderate trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail. To the NW of the
surface trough, light and variable winds prevail with slight seas. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse offshore 
Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela and southern Panama offshore 
waters through the rest of the week, possibly reaching near gale-
force speed Sat and Sat night. Moderate to rough seas are expected
with these winds. Fresh NE winds will develop in the Windward 
Passage and in the lee side of Cuba Tue through Wed evening as 
high pressure moves eastward off the coasts of the Carolinas and 
then towards the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong E to SE winds 
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and will continue 
through Sat night. Otherwise, trade winds will remain moderate to 
fresh speeds over the E Caribbean through the forecast period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect N fo 29N, along a cold front that
extends from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas. These gale-force SW winds
are expected to shift N of 31N and out of the area this evening. 
Please refer to the Special Feature section above for more 
details.

The aforementioned cold front spirals into a rapidly deepening 
992 mb low pressure center near 37N70W. Gale-force to strong N 
winds occurring southwest of the low center extend to near 31N and
are producing large N swell moving into the waters W of the 
front. Seas behind the front and N of 29N are 8 to 11 ft, 
diminishing to 4 ft along the central coast of Florida. East of 
the front, a 1024 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic 
near 32.5N52W and extends a ridge to the SE Bahamas. S through SE 
of the high, a second front extends from 31N37W to 22N50W, then is
a stationary front to 21N65W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E 
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted along and within 180 nm north 
of this front, with gentle breezes and 4 to 5 ft seas elsewhere 
west of the front to 65W. Elsewhere moderate to fresh NE to E 
trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas with a component of NE to E swell 
prevail across the Tropical Atlantic S of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, gale-force SW winds occurring N of
29N along the cold front are forecast to move N of 31N this
evening. However heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will 
continue ahead of this front as it continues its eastward motion 
through Wed. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas to central Cuba tonight, from near 30N55W to just NE of 
the Puerto Rico offshores Tue evening, and will move E of 55W by 
Wed afternoon. Winds behind the front will become moderate or 
weaker early Tue night, however moderate to large NW to N swell 
will continue to support rough seas over great portions of the SW 
N Atlantic waters through Thu night. The tail of a cold front is 
forecast to enter the NE Florida offshore waters briefly on Thu. A
third cold front is forecast to enter the same region Sat night.

$$

Stripling