000
AXNT20 KNHC 252335
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jul 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic near 22.5W,
from 17N southward, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant 
convection is noted at this time. 

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W, from 20N 
southward, moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is 
noted at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W, from 18N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring from 12N to 14N between 56W and 58W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has been repositioned, and is analyzed 
near 72W, from 19N southward. No significant convection is noted 
at this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and extends to
09N46W. The ITCZ continues from 09N46W to 10N55W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 09N to 12N between 15W and
30W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf
and adjacent land areas are associated with a trough of low 
pressure that is moving inland over southwestern Louisiana and 
southeastern Texas. Moderate to fresh S winds are occurring near 
and to the east of the low in the north-central basin. Scattered 
thunderstorms are occurring across the northern and western basin 
in association with the low. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh 
NE winds are occurring offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula. The 
remainder of the Gulf, from the southwestern basin to offshore of
Florida, is seeing gentle or weaker winds and 1 to 4 ft seas. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned low is moving inland over 
southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. Development of this
system is no longer expected. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds are forecast along the Yucatan Peninsula 
each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and 
shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong pressure gradient forced by a 1008 mb low over 
northwestern Colombia and high pressure in the western Atlantic is
leading to widespread fresh to strong trade winds over the 
central Caribbean and through the Windward Passage. Seas of 8-10 
ft are found across these waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds 
are also found across the west-central through northwestern basin
with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E winds
are noted downwind of the Lesser Antilles into the eastern 
Caribbean. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is 
occurring in the northwestern basin, with the most concentrated 
activity occurring offshore of Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds 
over the central Caribbean into Sat. Fresh to strong northeast 
winds in the Windward Passage are expected through Sat. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh winds will prevail. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N49W to
27N60W to 31N69W, and scattered moderate convection is occurring 
along the central and eastern portions of the front from 26N to 
31N between 48W and 60W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and 
4-7 ft seas are occurring east of the front, generally east of 
55W. Farther west, a 1022 mb high has been analyzed off the coast 
of Florida near 28N75W, and the pressure gradient between the high
and the aforementioned stationary front is lead to moderate to 
locally fresh NW winds between the features, east of 75W and north
of 25N. Elsewhere in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, 
moderate trade winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the 
weather pattern across the forecast region, supporting fresh to 
strong winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the 
Windward Passage through Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds 
along with mostly moderate seas are expected.

$$
ADAMS