000
AXNT20 KNHC 291009
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jun 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W, 
south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is found from 04-08N between 27W-31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W, south of
14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection 
is found along the wave axis and N of 06N.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 68W, south of
20N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at this
time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues 
southwestward to 11N28W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 06N57W. 
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described
above, no significant convection is present at this time.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends westward
into the Gulf waters, supporting fresh NE-E winds W of 90W, and 
moderate SE winds E of 90W. Moderate seas prevail across the
basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse off 
the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to 
fresh E to SE winds across the western half of the Gulf will 
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning and then prevail
the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are 
expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in 
the NE Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh
to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central 
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. The strongest winds 
and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh 
easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin 
combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong 
tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period,
reaching near-gale speeds offshore of Colombia at night. Moderate
or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin 
during the next several days.  

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low centered north of the Leeward Islands combine 
with a surface trough along 63W to produce scattered showers and  
thunderstorms from 20N to 26N and between 57W and 64W. The 
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad 
subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds 
and seas of 5-8 ft south of 25N and east of 30W. 

In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to near gale-force northerly 
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 18N and east of 20W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will 
dominate the forecast area through today. While most of the basin 
will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of 
Hispaniola will freshen in the afternoons and early evenings for 
the next several days. A weak cold front will push off of the SE 
United States coast today and extend from 31N73W to the central 
Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the front is anticipated 
to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is expected to form
along the western end of the frontal system today or Tuesday. 
Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it
drifts westward over our NW waters north of 28N.

$$
ERA