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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 221715

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
08N13W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W across the
equator to the coast of Brazil near 05S35W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the monsoon trough/


As of 1500 UTC, a 1021 mb high was located over the NW Gulf near 
27N94W. No deep convection or any showers are present under strong
upper-level subsidence over the Gulf today. The surface winds 
veer clockwise around the high and are generally gentle to 
moderate breeze. Seas are well below 8 ft. 

The high and associated ridging will dominate the Gulf region 
over the next several days producing gentle to moderate easterly 
winds, except off the W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula where late 
evening local effects will keep brief periods of NE winds to 20 
kt. A cold front will sweep into the northern Gulf waters on Tue. 
Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected behind the front. 


A cold front extends from E Cuba near 20N77W to Nicaragua near
12N84W. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the front.
Elsewhere across the Caribbean, isolated showers are occurring
over E Cuba, Haiti, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the 
Windward Islands. N winds behind the front are moderate to fresh 
breeze, while E tradewinds over the remainder of the Caribbean 
are generally gentle to moderate. The exception, as is typical, 
are winds just north of Colombia, which are up to fresh to strong 
NE breeze as observed by a scatterometer pass this morning. Seas 
across the Caribbean remain below 8 ft.

The cold front will drift SE and gradually dissipate today. Then,
the remnants of the front, as a surface trough, will drift 
westward across the NW Caribbean through the weekend. Fresh to 
strong NE winds are expected at night near the coast of Colombia 
through Tue. NE swell from the Atlantic will reach the Caribbean 
passages E of Hispaniola by Sat night. 


A cold front extends from 32N58W southwestward to the central
Bahamas and to E Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers are present
within 60 nm of the front.  A secondary dissipating cold front 
extends from 32N64W to 21N77W. A trough extends from 32N73W to
27N77W. SW winds north of 27N ahead of the cold front are up to
strong breeze, while a scatterometer pass this morning showed W 
winds to near gale conditions north of 30N within 120 nm of the 
trough. Buoy 41010 north of the NW Bahamas indicate seas of 
9-10 ft this morning. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, quiescent 
conditions prevail with surface ridging along 32N38W west- 
southwestward to Hispaniola.

The cold fronts over the Atlantic will merge today, and the 
merged front will reach a position from 27N65W to the SE Bahamas 
by Sat morning, and from 26N65W to central Cuba by Sun morning. 
Swell generated by these fronts will dominate the waters E of the 
Bahamas through the weekend. Another cold front is forecast to 
reach the north waters late on Tue. Strong to near gale force NE 
winds are expected in the wake of the front by Tue night. A low 
may develop along the frontal boundary on Wed with an increase in 
winds and seas. 

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