834 
AXNT20 KNHC 142319
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jan 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front over the NW Gulf will 
move rapidly across the basin, shifting southeast of the area by
Thu evening. The front will be followed by fresh to strong NW to
N winds and rough seas. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected
across the coastal waters of the NE Gulf, particularly between 
Apalachicola, FL and Mobile, AL tonight into early Thu morning.  
Conditions will improve across the Gulf region Thu night into 
the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh to strong northerly 
winds may impact the basin late in the weekend. Winds may reach 
gale force near Tampico and Veracruz on Sun. 

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW waters by 
Thu morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri 
morning, and extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it
will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds and rough
seas will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to
reach gale force ahead and behind the front N of 29N by Thu evening.
A reinforcing front may impact the basin late in the upcoming 
weekend, bringing strong to near gale force winds and rough seas.

Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, then runs southwestward to 06N15W. The ITCZ 
continues westward from 06N15W to 02N30W to 04N46W. Convection is
limited. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force is in effect for
the coastal waters of the NE Gulf. Please, read the Special 
Features section for more details. 

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front is moving across the NW Gulf followed
by fresh to strong NW winds and building seas. Moderate to fresh
NW winds are noted over the remainder of the NW and west-central
Gulf per satellite derived wind data, with moderate seas. A 
surface trough extends across the SW Gulf, and runs from 24N95W 
to 18N94W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are blowing on the W side 
of the trough, including the vicinity of Veracruz where moderate 
seas are seen. A stationary front is analyzed over the Straits of
Florida, and is generating a few showers. Multilayer clouds, 
with possible showers, are noted over most of the Gulf waters and
Florida.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front over the NW Gulf
will move rapidly across the basin, shifting southeast of the 
area by Thu evening. The front will be followed by increasing 
winds and building seas. Conditions will improve Thu night into 
the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh to strong northerly 
winds may impact the basin late in the weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds
over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela.
Seas are 8 to 10 ft are in association with these winds offshore
NW Colombia based on an altimeter pass. Moderate to fresh winds 
are noted over the remainder of the east and central parts of the
basin. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas dominate
the NW Caribbean. A surface trough crosses the Yucatan Channel 
into the Gulf of Honduras. Some shower activity is observed near 
the trough. Elsewhere, patches of low level moisture, with possible
showers, prevail.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong winds 
offshore of NW Colombia tonight, then return this weekend. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail through tonight.
A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Thu, stall from E 
Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure 
gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the 
upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing winds 
and building seas across the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale 
Warning.

A stationary front runs northward from the Straits of Florida, 
parallel to the Florida east coast to beyond 31N78W. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are flaring up near this boundary, 
including the northwest Bahamas. Fresh to strong S to SW winds
are N of 25N and E of the front to about 76W while moderate to 
fresh W to NW winds follow the front. High pressure dominates 
the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Under the
influence of this system, an area of fresh to strong NE winds 
is noted from 12N to 25N and E of 35W to the coast of W Africa, 
including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are within 
these winds based on a couple of altimeter passes. Moderate to 
locally fresh trades are observed across the tropical Atlantic 
with moderate to rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds, and 
moderate seas, are elsewhere. An upper-level low in the central 
Atlantic near 24N40W is triggering some shower activity.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will enter the NW 
waters by Thu morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE 
Bahamas Fri morning, and extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat 
morning where it will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to 
strong winds will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are 
forecast to reach gale force east and west of the front and N of
29N by Thu evening. A reinforcing front may impact the basin 
late in the upcoming weekend. 

$$
GR