000
AXNT20 KNHC 271727
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1715 UTC Thu Aug 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Dolly is centered near 13.6N 38.7W at 27/1500 UTC
or 1350 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 21 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 4 m in the
NE quadrant. On the forecast track, this system should be nearing
the Leeward Islands this weekend. Little change in strength is 
forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolly is forecast to 
degenerate into a tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward 
Islands. Heavy rain from this system could begin to affect the 
Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday, the Virgin Islands, 
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may 
produce flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Dolly
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will 
support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to very 
rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-
force tonight off Colombia. 

Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa and has 
been analyzed along 20.5W, south of 18N. Scattered moderate 
convection is depicted from 06N to 14N between 20W and 24W. 

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W, south of 
21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is 
observed with this wave.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82.5W, south of 
20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. The interaction with the wave
and the eastern end of the monsoon trough is supporting scattered
moderate convection south of 12N and west of 80W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17.5N16W and extends
southwestward to 10N24W to 10N47W. The ITCZ continues from 10N47W
to 11N61.5W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N 
to 14N between 56W and 60W. 
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted north
of 27.5N between 83W and 95W, ahead of a stationary frontal 
boundary located over the SE United States. Similar convection is
noted off western Florida. A weak pressure gradient across the 
basin supports light to gentle winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
waters through early next week, supporting moderate or weaker 
winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong
with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to
a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each 
night. A frontal boundary will meander near the northern Gulf 
waters during the next few days producing scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher
seas associated with these storms.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the 
Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia.

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident in the Gulf 
of Honduras. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong 
easterly trade winds and moderate seas are present in the north-
central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate 
seas prevail across the rest of the Caribbean, except for gentle 
winds and slight seas over the NW part of the basin.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will 
support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to 
locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the
forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off 
Colombia. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the 
Windward Passage at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.6N 
38.7W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central 
pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 13.7N 42.0W this evening, 
14.4N 46.4W Fri morning, 15.1N 51.1W Fri evening, 15.9N 55.6W Sat 
morning, become post-tropical and move to 16.7N 59.5W Sat evening,
and 17.7N 63.2W Sun morning. Dolly will dissipate early Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
the recently upgraded Tropical Storm Dolly.

A surface trough located SE of Bermuda is producing a few showers
north of 22N and between 57W and 66W. Scattered moderate
convection is also found west of 75W. The SW North Atlantic is 
dominated by a weak high pressure area that supports moderate or 
lighter winds and moderate seas, west of 35W. A cold front 
extends from 30N10W to 25N26W to 28N35W, followed by a stationary 
front north of our area. Broad high pressure also prevails across 
the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, maintaining moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate
the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting 
mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds
will pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at 
night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.6N 38.7W at 11 AM EDT, and 
is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with 
gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly
will move to 13.7N 42.0W this evening, 14.4N 46.4W Fri morning, 
15.1N 51.1W Fri evening, 15.9N 55.6W Sat morning, become post- 
tropical and move to 16.7N 59.5W Sat evening, and 17.7N 63.2W Sun 
morning. Dolly will dissipate early Mon.$$ KRV