000
AXNT20 KNHC 141719
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Today, the pressure gradient will tighten
between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic 
along 27N and the Colombian low. This will accelerate winds in 
the south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale-force off
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela on tonight. Very rough seas
to 15 ft will build near and downwind of these gales in the 
southwest Caribbean tonight and again Sat night. Please see the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been introduced along 19W from 05N to 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 09N to 16N and E of 26W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W, from 05N to 20N, moving 
west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N
to 14N between 35W and 42W. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form this weekend or early next week while the 
wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the central 
tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical development 
of this system in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for 
development in the next 7 days.

A tropical wave has been analyzed from 06N55W to near 20N51W,
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is occurring from 06N to 17N between 50W and 
62W. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level
winds and dry air, and the potential of development continues to 
decrease. There is now a low chance of this system developing into
a tropical cyclone. Even though development is unlikely, gusty 
winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the 
Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W, moving 
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is seen
with this wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 22N17W and extends 
southwestward to 10N38W to 12N52W and then to 09N56W. Convection
is discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by
a 1020 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center. 
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds associated with a surface trough 
are ongoing over the SW Gulf waters along with moderate seas to 6 
ft. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends westward across 
Florida and into the Gulf region, and will change little through 
Sat before weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly
gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of
fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and
into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a surface 
trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW 
Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast 
period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning 
in effect for the south-central basin effective tonight.

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and 
the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds 
over the central Caribbean waters. Moderate to rough seas are
ongoing over these waters. Fresh to strong trade winds and 
moderate seas are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail over the remaining 
waters.

For the forecast, a tropical wave, with axis along 75W, combined 
with the Bermuda High north of the region will enhance the trades 
over the central Caribbean through Sat. Peak winds should reach 
gale- force just north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela 
tonight and Sat night. A second tropical wave, with axis along 
52W, Invest AL92, should start impacting the Leeward Islands 
tonight and Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds, rough seas and 
areas of heavy rain are expected with the passage of the latter 
wave. These weather conditions will shift westward toward the 
central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles, including the Windward
Passage from Sat night through Mon. Afterwards, the tropical wave
may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Surface ridging associated with the Azores High dominates the
entire subtropical Atlantic waters supporting moderate to fresh E
to SE winds S of 25N and W of 30W along with moderate seas. N of 
25N, winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate. 
Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are occurring near the Canary 
Islands SE toward the coast of Africa. Upper level divergence
associated with an upper level trough continues to support 
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas and along
the east coast of FL.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge, combined with 
the passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will cause 
fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night. 
Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the 
next few days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will slowly push 
across the northern forecast border east of 70W on Sun, causing a 
wind shift to the NW and then N but with little change in wind 
speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will stall late on 
Monday before dissipating by midweek. 

$$
Adams