000
AXNT20 KNHC 231705
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat May 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1650 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 20W from 13N southward, moving westward 
at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the Monsoon
Trough and nearby ITCZ, is from 01N to 06N between 10W and 23W. 

A tropical wave is analyzed along 48W, south of 12N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from the
equator to 05N between 47W and 51W, including coastal regions of
far NE Brazil.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is near 81W, south of 
15N and into the Eastern Pacific region to near 05N. This wave is
nearly stationary, with surface and upper air data from San Andres
Island indicating the wave remains east of the island. Scattered
showers and tstorms are along the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues 
southwestward to 04N23W. The ITCZ extends from 04N23W to 01N43W,
east of a tropical wave. Outside of the convection related to the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
north and south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of Louisiana,
north of 28N between 88W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is
also moving off the south Texas coast. These unsettled areas of
weather will persist for the next several hours over water.
Elsewhere, the subtropical Atlantic ridge extends across Florida
and much of the central and eastern Gulf waters. Satellite
scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate SE winds across
the basin. Seas are analyzed to range from 2-4 ft. The diurnal
trough in the Bay of Campeche dissipated earlier this morning.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to
the northern Gulf will change little through late Mon, then
weaken into midweek. The related pressure gradient will maintain
a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow through early
Sun, except for light to gentle southeast winds W of about 94W
Sat night through Tue as a weak trough develops off the Texas
coast. Winds then generally become southeast at gentle to
moderate speeds across the basin through midweek, with slight to
moderate seas, with the exception of fresh to strong winds
pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the
night time hours due to local effects associated with a thermal
trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected near
the above mentioned trough. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the region and
the Colombian Low supports fresh to locally strong trades in the 
south-central Caribbean, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere,
satellite scatterometer data received this morning indicates
moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Satellite altimeter 
data supports an analysis of 4-7 ft seas across the Caribbean. 
Pockets of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, 
are affecting the remainder of the region by generating isolated 
passing showers. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South
America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- 
central Caribbean into early next week creating rough seas over 
these waters. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening 
over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades elsewhere across
the basin will begin to increase in coverage starting early next 
week as stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift 
southeastward tightening the pressure gradient.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the Atlantic waters, providing for gentle
to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas across the basin. Pockets of
low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow may generate a
few passing showers, especially in the western Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to 
dominate most of the forecast region this weekend into early next 
week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse north of Hispaniola during
the afternoons and evenings going into early next week. The 
western part of a backdoor cold front will push south across the 
eastern portion of the area from Sun afternoon into Mon before 
stalling near 26N, then begin to weaken, dissipating on Tue. Fresh
to strong northeast winds along with moderate to rough seas will 
follow the front, subsiding late Tue. Elsewhere, trades are 
forecast to increase over most of the western half of the area 
starting Mon, including the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as
well as the entrance to the Windward Passage as stronger Atlantic
high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the 
pressure gradient.

$$
Mahoney