000
AXNT20 KNHC 310839
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Dec 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large N swell generated from 
a gale force low N of the area is producing very rough seas 
greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters north of 26N between 
34W and 46W. These very rough seas will shift eastward while 
gradually subsiding from south to north through late week. Rough 
seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 14N between 24W and 
60W. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N12.5W and 
continues to 07N15W. The ITCZ extends from 07N15W to 04N33W to 
02N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 02N to 07N between 19W and 36W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure is building into the Gulf basin. The gale force
winds off Veracruz have diminished, with strong to near gale
winds, and very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft, currently over these 
waters. Fresh to strong winds are over the SW Gulf elsewhere S of
21N, with seas of 8-11 ft. Fresh winds and rough seas are S of
24N. N of 24N, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas over the
central and southern basin will diminish this morning. High 
pressure will build over the basin today, with moderate or weaker 
winds and slight seas region-wide through Thu. Fresh W to SW winds
may develop over the northern Gulf by late week, ahead of a low 
pressure system moving across the southern United States.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba to Belize. Moderate to 
fresh winds, and rough seas, are W of the front. Fresh to locally 
strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail over the 
southern Caribbean between 65W and 77W. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds, and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will pulse in
the south-central Caribbean into early Thu. A cold front over
the northwestern Caribbean will weaken and eventually dissipate
over the northwestern basin by late week. Fresh N winds and rough
seas will prevail in the wake of the front, from the Yucatan 
Channel through the northwestern basin today. Over the Atlantic 
waters, rough seas in N swell will subside by the end of the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on  
significant swell causing very rough seas in the central 
Atlantic.

Aside from the areas discussed in the special features section
above, a cold front extends from 31N65W to central Cuba. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the 
vicinity of the front N of 25N. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas
of 609 ft are W of the front. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas 
of 6-9 ft are E of the front to 60W. Another cold front extends 
from 31N25.5W to 20N42W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is N of 27N within 90 nm east of the front. Fresh winds
are N of 25N within 60 nm east of the front, with fresh to strong
winds N of 28N W of the front to 40W. A 1022 mb high is centered
near 26N50W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high
center. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate
seas.  

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N to NW swell east of
60W will subside early today. The cold front extending from 
31N65W to central Cuba will progress eastward. Fresh to locally 
strong SW winds and rough seas will prevail ahead of the front, 
generally north of 26N, through tonight. Fresh to locally strong W
winds and rough seas may develop off the coast of northern 
Florida on Thu as a cold front passes north of the waters. 
Otherwise, weak high pressure will build over the western tropical
Atlantic, with moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over 
the rest of the waters for late week.

$$
AL