155 
AXNT20 KNHC 292039
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jun 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W, 
south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is found from 03N-07N between 23W-34W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W, south 
of 14N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is found along the wave axis from 08N-12N 
between 60W-64W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 72W, south of
20N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at 
this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues 
southwestward to 10N22W. The ITCZ extends from 10N22W to 06N30W 
to 06N53W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves
described above, no significant convection is present at this 
time.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

1021 mb high pressure is centered over the north-central Gulf 
near 29N87W. A trough is over the Bay of Campeche in the far 
southwest Gulf along 92W south of 22N. Moderate S to SW winds and 
3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the western Gulf with gentle breezes
and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Various observations over
southern Mexico including Veracruz are showing minor limitations 
to visibility due to haze. 

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate the
Gulf region while a weak cold front is forecast to reach the NE 
Gulf late tonight into Tue with little impact in winds and seas. 
Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW 
Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sat night due to local effects 
associated with a thermal trough. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds 
across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to 
moderate speeds Tue morning and then prevail the remainder 
forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E
of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh
to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central 
Caribbean, as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. A
concurrent altimeter pass confirmed seas in these waters are 8-10
ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW 
Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are
found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter 
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. A few thunderstorms are
active across Trinidad into the far northeast part of Venezuela associated
with a tropical wave moving past the Windward Islands. No 
significant convection is evident elsewhere over the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the basin combined
with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds
over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, reaching
near-gale force offshore of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela
at night. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder
of the basin during the next several days. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low centered north of the Leeward Islands near
24N65W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain
active within 90 to 240 nm southeast of an associated surface 
trough extending from 25N63W to 19N70W. The remainder of the 
Atlantic discussion area is dominated by the subtropical ridge 
north of 20N, interrupted only by a surface trough along roughly 
45W from 20N to 25N. This pattern is supporting moderate winds and
3-5 ft seas north of 20N, east of 35W. It is also supporting 
moderate to fresh trade winds farther south over the deep tropics 
east of 35W with 5-7 ft seas, except near 8 ft southeast of 
Barbados. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to near gale-force 
northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 18N and 
east of 20W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent elsewhere east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, while most of the basin will 
experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of 
Hispaniola will freshen in the late afternoons and early evenings 
for the next several days. A weak cold front located off of the SE
United States coast will extend from 31N72W to the central 
Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the front is anticipated 
to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is expected to form
along the western end of the frontal system in the next day or 
two. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for
some tropical development as the system drifts southward and then
westward before conditions become even less favorable later this 
week. Currently, the forecast keeps the low just N of 30N through 
Wed.

$$
Christensen