953 
AXNT20 KNHC 011646
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Jul 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is west of the Cape Verde Islands with axis near 
27W from 02N to 16N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen from 07N to 10N between 25W and 30W.

A tropical wave extends from 02N to 15N with axis near 47W, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present from 05N to 09N and between 45W and 
50W.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. The wave 
axis is near 75W, south of 19N, and moving westward at around 15 
kt. Scattered showers are offshore Colombia and E Panama.

The tropical wave crossing Central America that was mentioned in 
the previous discussion has moved over into the Eastern Pacific.
Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the Eastern
Pacific for information on that wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
W Africa near 22N17W and continues southwestward to 07N31W. The 
ITCZ extends from 07N31W to 09N45W where it is broken by a
tropical wave. The ITCZ then continues from 07N50W to 08N59W. 
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, 
scattered moderate convection is evident from0 5N to 15N and E of
24W, as well as from 06N to 10N between 55W and 60W. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are also seen along and within 
100 nm of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The Gulf is dominated by a weak ridge that supports gentle to 
moderate SE winds and slight seas W of 90W, and light to gentle
winds and slight seas over the remainder Gulf. There are two
surface troughs, one extending from SE Louisiana to the waters NW
of Dry Tortugas, which is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the NE Gulf, and a second trough in 
the Bay of Campeche which is generating similar activity. 

For the forecast, a ridge across the northern Gulf will continue 
to dominate the basin for the remainder of the week. A weakening 
frontal trough extending from SE Louisiana to the central Florida 
coast will gradually dissipate through Thu, with scattered showers
and thunderstorms persisting along the trough. Fresh to locally 
strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula 
nightly through Sun night due to local effects associated with a 
daily surface trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will 
prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or 
weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh
to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central 
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. The strongest winds 
and highest seas are offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh 
easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Azores High extends a ridge southwestward 
across the central Atlantic to the central Bahamas this morning. 
The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian Low 
will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough 
seas over the central Caribbean through Fri morning, then diminish
slightly through the weekend. Expect winds to reach near gale-
force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in 
the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail 
over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms 
are expected across the SE Caribbean Thu night through Fri night 
as an upper- level trough sinks across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is across the NW waters, extending from 31N71W
to 26N80W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing ahead of the
front between 50W and 65W and N of 29N. A pair of surface troughs
in the central to west Atlantic are aiding in the development of 
scattered showers. The Azores High extends a ridge across the 
remainder of the subtropical Atlantic waters. Winds across the 
waters S of 22N are moderate to fresh with moderate seas to 6 ft.
N of 22N and E of 35W, a tighter pressure gradient with lower 
pressures over NW Africa is leading to fresh to locally strong NE 
winds along with rough seas to 10 ft, including the Canary 
Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Azores High extends a ridge 
southwestward across the central Atlantic to the central Bahamas 
this morning. A weakening stationary front is across the NW 
waters, from 31N72W through the NW Bahamas to the south-central 
coast of Florida. The front will gradually dissipate through Thu 
while moving westward toward the southeastern U.S. coast. The 
Atlantic ridge will then build weakly westward into central 
Florida through the weekend. This pattern will support moderate to
locally fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker 
winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to locally strong winds each late 
afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of 
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

$$
Adams