000
AXNT20 KNHC 150548
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Feb 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: 
Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for their Agadir, Tarfaya,
and Canarias Marine Zones, all of which are valid through at least
15/12 UTC. For more details, please refer to the Meteo-France 
High Seas Forecast listed on their website: 
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near
Conakry, then extends southwestward to 04N19W. An ITCZ continues 
from 04N19W through 02N30W to north of Sao Luis, Brazil at 
00N44W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 10W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The tail end of a squall line is triggering scattered heavy
showers and strong thunderstorms with occasional lightning and
gusty winds across the northwestern Gulf. Otherwise, a broad
surface ridge extending southwestward from central Florida to
south of Tampico, Mexico dominates the much of the Gulf. Light to
gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted off the Florida
coast up to Apalachicola. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and
seas at 2 to 4 ft are seen at the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to 
fresh with locally strong SE to SSW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas 
prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including waters off the western
Florida Panhandle.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf 
by Sun night. Strong S to SW winds and rough seas are expected in
the north-central and northeastern Gulf ahead of this frontal 
system on Sun. The front is forecast to move southeast of the 
Gulf by Mon afternoon, with winds and seas decreasing. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front. Gentle to moderate 
winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail by midweek. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A surface trough along with the southwestern end of a stationary
front are generating scattered showers near Jamaica, Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico. A trade-wind regime persist for the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are
present off northwestern Colombia, south of the Dominican 
Republic and near the Windward Passage. Fresh with locally strong
ENE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft are found at the lee of Cuba. 
Mainly gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident at the 
northeastern basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to 
ESE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea.

For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the 
coast of Colombia through Thu night. Moderate to rough seas are 
expected with these winds. Strong winds will prevail over the 
Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic this weekend
as a high pressure center passing north of the area maintains a 
tight pressure gradient. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and 
moderate seas will prevail through the middle of next week, except
mainly light to gentle winds over the northwestern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
through 31N49W to 22N57W, then continues as a stationary to the 
Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
are seen up to 80 nm along either side of the cold front.
Scattered showers are found up to 40 nm along either side of the
stationary front. Well farther south, convergent trade winds are
producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from
01N to 03N between 41W and 50W, including waters near the Amazon
River Delta. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the 
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A 1024 mb high off the Georgia/South Carolina coast is supporting
gentle to moderate NE to SE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas north of 26N
and west of 50W. To the south, moderate to fresh NE winds and seas
of 6 to 8 ft from 20N to 26N and west of 55W, including the
central and southeast Bahamas. Between 50W/55W and 35W, and north
of 20N, moderate with locally fresh SE to S winds and seas at 7 
to 10 ft in mixed moderate to large swells exist. For the tropical
Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure is building in the 
wake of the aforementioned cold front. S winds will strengthen 
offshore north and central Florida on Sun in advance of another 
cold front that will move off the southeast U.S. coast on Mon. 
This cold front will shift eastward over the forecast waters, 
moving east of 35W by the middle of next week. Fresh to strong NE
winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the second 
front. These winds will diminish by the middle of next week, with 
rough seas lingering east of 60W. 

$$

Chan