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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 200520
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W from 11N southward, 
moving W about 20 knots. Any nearby precipitation is part of the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

A second Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 11N 
southward, moving W about 15 knots. Any nearby precipitation is 
part of the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

A third Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 14N 
southward, moving W about 10 knots. Precipitation; isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 13N southward
between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 20N66W to 15N67W to 10N68W
in Venezuela, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Upper level SW wind flow is
moving through the area of the tropical wave. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is between 62W and 67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 
04N34W and 02N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to 09N between 13W and
37W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 09N
southward from 50W eastward. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1006 mb low pressure center is inland in the Deep South of 
Texas near 28N99W. A surface trough is along 29N96W, to the low 
pressure center, to 26N98W, at the border with Mexico. 
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers 
cover Mexico, Texas, and the Gulf of Mexico from 24N to 30N 
between 93W and 101W. The precipitation pattern consisted of more 
aerial coverage and comparatively deeper convective precipitation 
six hours ago.

Upper level anticyclonic outflow is spiraling away from south
Texas, covering the area that includes the Texas/Mexico border
near 101W, northward into the southern half of Arkansas, to the
Mississippi/Alabama border, and then into the Gulf of Mexico from
88W westward. Upper level easterly wind flow covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 88W eastward. 

The current Texas surface low pressure center, and an upper level
trough, will support numerous rainshowers, some with thunder, N 
of 22N W of 92W tonight. Fresh SE winds are expected in the NW 
Gulf through Wednesday. A surface trough will develop along the 
Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon, then move westward across the SW
Gulf during the overnight hours, accompanied by fresh east to 
southeast winds. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 29N63W cyclonic circulation
center, to 24N67W, along a shear axis from 24N67W to 21N78W in
Cuba, to 17N86W in the western Caribbean Sea, and to central
Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers have been
in parts of central Haiti, in eastern parts of Cuba and near the
Isle of Youth. 

Multilayered clouds are to the south of the line that runs from NE
Nicaragua beyond the Mona Passage. Rainshowers are possible in
this area. The 24-hour rainfall report from Guadeloupe, ending at
20/0000 UTC, showed 0.60 inches. A tropical wave is moving across
Puerto Rico.

The current tropical wave will support scattered rainshowers, some
with thunder, N of 15N. The wind speeds will pulse to strong in 
the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Trade winds across the south central
Caribbean Sea will strengthen on Thursday, and then expand in 
coverage during the upcoming weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 29N63W cyclonic circulation
center, to 24N67W, along a shear axis from 24N67W to 21N78W in
Cuba, to 17N86W in the western Caribbean Sea, and to central
Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated 
strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 16N in the 
Caribbean Sea to 28N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 67W.
A dissipating stationary front is along 31N56W 27N64W, to the 
Bahamas near 25N77W. Isolated moderate to locally strong 
rainshowers are from 24N to 32N between 49W and 58W.

The current weakening stationary front will dissipate gradually
overnight. Surface high pressure will build westward across the 
region from Wednesday through Thursday. A weak surface trough 
will move into the northwestern waters from Friday through
Saturday night.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT