AXNT20 KNHC 061815
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
215 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Edouard is centered near 40.8.0N 50.0W at 1500
UTC or 378 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving NE at 32 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Edouard is expected to
accelerate across the north central Atlantic during the next
couple of days. Little significant change in strength is
forecast while Edouard is forecast to become post-tropical this evening.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 25W
from 00N-19N, is moving west at 15 kt. Saharan dust is
noted over much of the eastern Atlantic, mainly from 13N-22N
east of 40W. Due to this associated dry air scattered moderate
convection is confined near the monsoon trough from 03N-08N
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 52W/53W from
04N-19N is moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 10N-14N between 54W-59W.
Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere within 90 nm of the
A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean extends along 65W from
06N-22N, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
within 300 nm of the wave axis.
The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 12N20W. The ITCZ is
analyzed from 12N20W to 08N23W. The ITCZ resumes W of a
tropical wave near 07N27W and continues to 06N40W to 10N51W.
The ITCZ resumes W of another tropical wave near 10N54W to
09N60W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N-14N
between 13W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-11N
GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 06/1500 UTC, a 1010 mb low is centered over the Florida
Panhandle near 31N85W. Isolated moderate convection is over the
NE Gulf of Mexico N of 27N and E of 93W. Similar convection is
over all of Florida. A surface ridge axis extends from Tampa
Florida to Tampico Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are noted.
Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the northern coast of the
A narrow high pressure ridge will persist along 25N-26N for the
next several days, with moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE
winds prevailing over the waters W of 93W. A low pressure trough
will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and freshen
winds over the SW Gulf.
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the eastern Caribbean.
A weakening upper trough extends from over the Windward Passage
to W Panama. Subsident northerly flow on the west side of this
feature has suppressed the convection across the basin. Surface
ridging north of the area is maintaining fresh trades over the
southern Caribbean, reaching 25 kt off of Colombia. Gentle to
moderate trades are noted across the basin. Seas range between
3-6 ft, with seas 7-8 ft north of Colombia.
High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri,
increasing to near gale force Thu night. Strong winds will pulse
at night in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Fri night. Expect
increasing winds, seas and active weather over the Tropical N
Atlantic waters today and Tue associated with a tropical wave
that will cross the Lesser Antilles on Tue. This wave will
affect the eastern basin through Wed.
See the Special Features section for information on T.S. Edouard
and the tropical waves moving across the basin.
Isolated moderate convection is over the W Atlantic W of 75W to
include the Bahamas. A surface ridge extends along 26N-27N west
of 55W, supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft
persist over open waters.
A weak high pressure ridge along 27N will gradually lift
northward this week. Low pressure across the SE U.S. will
approach the coast of the Carolinas Wed through Thu and drag a
trough across the northern Florida offshore waters. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds will affect the northwest and north-central
offshore waters N of 27N during this time.
Farther east, a surface ridge extends from 1032 mb high pressure
near 42N28W to 28N54W, then WSW to the central Bahamas. Fresh to
strong trades and 7 to 9 ft seas are noted over much of the
eastern Atlantic between this ridge and the deep tropics. The
tropical wave along 52W/53W will move across the tropical N
Atlantic waters and the Lesser Antilles today through Tue,
bringing a modest increase in winds and seas, and very active
weather southward of 14N.