000
AXNT20 KNHC 250002
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Invest AL95): Satellite-wind data 
indicate that the low-level circulation associated with an area of
low pressure centered a few hundred nautical miles east- 
southeast of Bermuda remains broad and somewhat elongated. Fresh 
to strong southerly winds are noted mainly on the NE side of the 
low, north of 25N between 52W and 60W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft, 
highest just north of the area. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 22N to 35N between 52W and 60W. 
Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for further
development, but this system could become a short- lived tropical
depression or storm through Tuesday while it moves northward then
north-northeastward, and well northeast of Bermuda. By Wednesday,
the low is forecast to move over cold waters, ending its 
formation chances. This system has a medium chance of tropical 
cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. 

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A tropical wave and 
associated area of low pressure have exited Africa today, and are 
over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles southeast of 
the Cabo Verde islands. This system is producing scattered
moderate isolated strong convection from 07N to 14N E of 27W.
Presently these showers and thunderstorms do not show signs of
organization. However, this system could become a tropical 
depression during the next few days while it moves westward to 
west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less 
conducive for development by the weekend. This system has a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on
these features.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave and associated area of low 
pressure has moved away from the west coast of Africa , and is
near 19W, and is described above. 1010 mb low pressure is 
analyzed near the wave at 11N18.5W.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 43W, south of
19N, moving westward around 15 kt. Please refer to the Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ section below for details on any nearby convection as 
it is elongated along the ITCZ axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 60W south of 21N, 
moving westward around 10 kt. Convection near the wave is limited, 
however some widely scattered showers near the axis are occurring
inland over Venezuela. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W south of 21N to 
northwest Venezuela, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted near the wave over land, across
Hispaniola, and over NW Venezuela and NE Colombia. 
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 14N16.5W and continues southwestward to low pressure
near 11N18.5W 1010 mb to 12N37W to 08N45W. The ITCZ extends from
08N45W to 06N51W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated 
with the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate  
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 36W
and 57W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A large cluster of moderate to strong thunderstorms has shifted
southward throughout the afternoon and is now along and within 
120 nm of the coasts from Panama City, FL to the Atchafalaya Bay,
LA. 1018 mb high pressure is centered over the central Gulf near
26N87W, and is generally producing light to gentle anticyclonic winds
across the basin, except moderate NE winds in the eastern Bay of 
Campeche. Slight seas of 3 ft or less prevail over the basin per 
buoy observations. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over NE
Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge remaining 
dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to 
locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend. A surface
trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the 
Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America 
continues to allow for moderate to fresh trade winds over the 
central Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of NW
Venezuela and northern Colombia, with a narrow zone of strong
winds along the coasts near the Gulf of Venezuela and far NE
Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft with these trades. 
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 11N 
to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas 
elsewhere. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
occurring from 09N to 15.5N W of 80W, including over portions of 
northern Costa Rica, and Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the current pattern across the region will 
continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough 
seas over the south- central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, 
mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, 
aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of
the basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following 
passages several tropical waves that will quickly move west across
the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
low pressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical 
cyclone formation, and on Invest AL96, a tropical wave that has 
recently emerged off Africa.

A weak surface trough is analyzed across the western Atlantic
extending SW through 31N74W to the NW Bahamas. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are within 60 nm of this
trough. Moderate SW winds are occurring north of this through.
1018 mb high pressure is east of this feature near 29N72W. South
of this high, fresh E-SE winds are noted from the southern 
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands to near the approach to the 
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere 
north of 20N and west of 61W. Slight to moderate seas prevail 
north of 20N and west of 61W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 26N to 31N between 67W and 73W, supported by an upper
level low to the SW of Bermuda.

Elongated low pressure and attendant surface troughs prevail over
the waters N of 23N between 53W and 62W and described above with
Invest AL96.

Another pair of weak surface troughs are in the NE portion of the
basin from near the Canary Islands westward as the remnants of an
old frontal boundary. No significant convection is noted near 
these features. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging prevails. 
Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 5 to 8 ft seas. Winds are 
mainly moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure of 1016 mb centered
near 30N61W is producing scattered moderate convection and strong
S winds E of its center to about 52W. This low is showing signs 
of tropical organization, but will move N and out of the area by 
tonight. Additional development of this system is possible, and a 
short- lived tropical depression or storm could form through Tue 
well E or NE of Bermuda. Regardless of development, conditions 
will improve over area waters by Tue as the system moves away. 
Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail, with moderate to 
fresh trades will prevail S of 23N, with slightly higher winds 
pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most 
westward across the far southern waters into the weekend.

$$
Stripling