AXNT20 KNHC 160005
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto at 15/2100 UTC is near
39.0N 45.7W, or 1045 km to the SE of Cape Race in Newfoundland.
Ernesto is moving northward, or 05 degrees, 08 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Please
read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W, from 16N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on
either side of the wave.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 18N,
moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong rainshowers are covering the waters from 07N to
13N between 43W and 50W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 06N to 13N between 38W and 43W.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W/60W, from 22N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
from 14N to 20N between 57W and 64W. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow also spans the area of the tropical wave.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W, from 08N-22N, moving
W at 15 kt. This wave is repositioned along a 700 mb axis. This is
now the only wave located in the Caribbean Sea. Scattered
moderate convection is S of W Cuba from 19N- 22N between 80W-84W.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 08N20W and 08N25W. The ITCZ continues from 08N25W
to 08N30W, to 10N37W, and to 06N57W near the coast of Brazil.
from 07N21W to 10N36W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave
from 10N40W to 08N55W. Besides the showers mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 05N-12N between 40W-47W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
NE upper level winds are over the Gulf of Mexico due to a large
upper level high centered over N Mexico near 29N106W. At the
surface, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near
30N68W. Surface ridging extends from the high to the NE Gulf of
Mexico. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf
from 24N-30N between 83W-90W. Elsewhere, widely scattered
moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 19N-23N
The surface ridge, that extends westward from the Atlantic Ocean
into the northern Gulf of Mexico, will continue across the region
into early next week. A nocturnal surface trough will move off
the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night,
accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds.
A tropical waves is over the W Caribbean Sea. See above.
A small upper level low is centered over the N Bahamas near
25N78W producing scattered showers. Another upper level low is
centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 18N86W. Upper level
diffluence from this low is enhancing the convection S of W Cuba.
The monsoon trough is along 09N from Costa Rica to N Colombia.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW
Caribbean S of 13N between 70W-80W.
A surface ridge, that is across the western Atlantic Ocean, will
maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea into early next week. Gentle to moderate
trade winds are expected elsewhere.
An upper level trough is off the coast of N Florida. Scattered
showers are over the W Atlantic N of 28N and W of 75W. A large
upper level high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N56W.
Upper level diffluence E of this center is enhancing convection
At the surface, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic
near 30N68W. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 32N55W
to 26N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-30N between
56W-61W. The tail end of another surface trough extends from
32N46W to 27N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-32N
between 45W-49W. A large 1028 mb high is centered over the E
Atlantic near 38N28W with ridging N of 23N between 15W-45W.
Surface high pressure will continue across the area through
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