712 
AXNT20 KNHC 141030
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 15N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is observed from 02N to 07.5N between 22W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W-44W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is near 
the wave axis.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W, south of 19N, moving
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection follows the wave from 06N to 09.5N between 53W and 60W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 18N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
associated with this wave is along the monsoon trough in the SW
Caribbean, while most associated convection is in the eastern 
North Pacific waters E of 88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W and continues southwestward to 
04.5N30W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N30W to 02.5N42W and then 
continues from 02N44W to 01N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate to
strong convection is along the W coast of Africa from 01.5N to 
11N E of 17W. Elsewhere, a few showers are seen near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Widely scattered moderate convection is noted on satellite 
imagery across the western Gulf W of 95W, near the elongated area
of low pressure along the Mexican coast, except for scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection S of 21N and W of 92.5W. A 
tight pressure gradient between this low and a 1018 mb high in the
eastern Gulf is sustaining fresh to locally strong SE winds and 
moderate to locally rough seas 6 to 9 ft west of a line from 
SW Louisiana to the NE Yucatan. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, an elongated area of low pressure has moved 
inland across coastal portions of eastern Mexico, but could re-
emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tue or Wed while
interacting with a frontal boundary. The pressure gradient 
between the low pressure area and 1018 mb high pressure over the 
east- central Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and 
moderate to rough seas across the western Gulf through tonight, 
while scattered showers and thunderstorms continue there through 
Mon. The Atlantic ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue 
through Thu, and combine with lower pressure over South Texas and 
northeastern Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds 
over the western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the 
eastern Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large cluster of moderate to strong convection persisting over
the Cayman Islands and across the NW Caribbean waters between 
Jamaica and Cuba has begun to diminish recently, aided by middle 
to upper level troughing extending across the NW Bahamas and 
through the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate to strong
convection has flared up along the monsoon trough across the SW
Caribbean, behind the passing tropical wave. At the surface, the
western Atlantic ridge extends through 26N55W westward across 
central Florida along 27N. The pressure gradient between this 
sub- tropical ridge and lower pressures in northern South America
is forcing fresh to near gale easterly trade winds and rough seas
over the central basin south of 198. Recent satellite scatterometer
data captured winds up to 33 kt off northern Colombia, while
satellite altimeter data showed seas in the area to near 12 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail 
across all but far NW portions.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in 
place through early Mon and support a large area of fresh to 
strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central 
Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of 
Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in 
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will 
reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu,
leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the 
Caribbean basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the
central and southeast Bahamas and central and eastern Cuba, but
have diminished in intensity in recent hours. A broad ridge
dominates the Atlantic basin along 26N-27N, and extends across
central Florida. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh 
easterly winds and moderate seas south of 22N and west of 35W,
except for 7 to 8 ft seas just E of the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to
strong NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found 
north of 15N and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will 
generally remain in place through early Mon, then reorganize along
60W Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly NE through Thu. This
pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N, then 
become moderate to fresh through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow 
will prevail elsewhere through tonight then become gentle to 
moderate SE to S winds Mon through Wed. Fresh SW winds will develop
across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W late Sun through early
Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as a weak 
frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong 
winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters 
near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. 

$$
Stripling