000
AXNT20 KNHC 072253
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 22.7N 92.9W at 07/2100
UTC or 200 nm WNW of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 18 
ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 19N 
to 26N between 89W and 94W. A continued east-northeastward motion
is expected today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and 
north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is 
expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday
and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday 
or early Saturday. Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane by 
Thursday morning, with further strengthening expected through 
Friday morning. Swells are expected to affect the western and 
northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday 
and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 21W, extending from 
05N-20N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection extends from 06N to 14N between 16W and 23W.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean with an axis near 71W, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 65W and 69W. This wave
is also forcing moderate to locally fresh winds over the 
northeast Caribbean and southern Puerto Rico adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N15W and extends to 
09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 09N56W. Scattered 
moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 16N between 24W and 
33W, and from 08N to 10N between 45W and 48W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
information on Tropical Storm Isaias. 

Besides Tropical Storm Isaias, a 1008 mb low is centered over the
north-central basin near 27N86W, and a stationary front extends 
eastward through the central Florida Peninsula, and a trough 
extends southwestward from the low to 25N93W. Fresh to strong NE 
to E winds are noted north of these features, and 4 to 6 ft seas 
are occurring as observed by recent buoy data. Across the 
southeastern Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas 
prevail. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Isaias will strengthen to a 
hurricane near 23.1N 91.8W late tonight with maximum sustained 
winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt and continue to strengthen as it moves to 
near 24.1N 90.1W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 80 kt 
gusts 100 kt, then move to near 25.8N 88.7W late Thu night, to 
near 28.1N 87.6W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 95 kt 
gusts 115 kt. Isaias is forecast to move inland and weaken to a 
tropical storm near 31.0N 87.3W Sat morning, and weaken further 
far inland through Sun. Swells from Isaias are expected to spread 
across the most of the northern and central Gulf portions through 
Fri night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will be over 
the basin into early next week. Otherwise, a stationary front 
along the north- central and NE Gulf will gradually weaken through
Thu morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in
the eastern Caribbean. 

Moderate to locally fresh SE to NE winds are occurring in the
eastern Caribbean near a tropical wave axis near 71W. Seas of 3 
to 5 ft are noted in this region. In addition, convection near the
tropical wave is likely producing gusty winds and rough seas. 
Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate or 
weaker winds and slight seas, as noted on recent buoy and 
altimeter satellite data. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection
is occurring in the south-central Caribbean near the eastern 
extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the 
western Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds 
across most of the basin through early Thu morning. Afterward, 
high pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda, which
will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This 
will increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh 
speeds Fri. These trades will change little through then be at 
mostly moderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Mon, then may 
diminish some late Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold extends from near 31N76W to 28N78W and becomes stationary 
to inland central Florida near Melbourne. Fresh to locally strong
NE winds prevail north of this front, with 6 to 8 ft seas in the 
region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near 
these features, west of 59W and north of 27N. Farther east, a 
surface trough extends from 27N42W to 23N47W, and scattered 
showers and storms to the east are likely producing gusty winds 
and rough seas. An additional surface trough, from 30N36W to 
31N38W, is leading to moderate or weaker winds. Finally over the 
eastern Atlantic, the Azores high dominates, supporting moderate 
to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas E of 40W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken past 
Bermuda late Thu before dissipating Thu night. Fresh to strong 
northeast winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining 
off NE Florida through this evening. Moderate or weaker winds and 
slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, 
high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will 
increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing 
Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong 
speeds again off NE Florida by Fri morning as Tropical Cyclone 
Isaias tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds 
will veer to the SE at fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening 
to moderate speeds by Sun morning. Winds E of northern Florida 
become W to NW at moderate speeds early next week behind a weak 
cold front.

$$
Landsea/Adams/Aguirre