000
AXNT20 KNHC 080607
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jul 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between central
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South 
America will continue to result in fresh to near gale trades over 
the central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds should
pulse to gale-force just north of Colombia tonight before 
diminishing to just below gale-force Wed. These winds will again 
pulse back up gale-force at night over these same waters through 
the rest of period, except on Thu and Sun. Gale-force winds are 
also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 14N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 05N to 12N and between 20W and 35W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
present from 08N to 13N and between 47W and 55W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near
the trough axis.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave along 83W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 5-10 kt. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms 
are seen near the trough axis and nearby Nicaragua and Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 09N27W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N29W to 08N49W, then continues from 08N51W to
08N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
evident from 05N to 09N and east of 18W. Similar convection is 
found from 06N to 10N and between 35W and 43W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level low over the NW Gulf is enhancing showers and
isolated thunderstorms over much of the basin south of 26N, with
the strongest convection occurring in the Bay of Campeche. A 1020
mb high pressure over the eastern Gulf results in moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas in the Bay of Campeche.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure extending westward
across the basin from the Atlantic will change little through
Thu night, then shift northward to near the northern Gulf coast
Fri through Sat night. The related pressure gradient will
generally maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds 
across the Gulf south of about 26N, and light to gentle southeast 
to south winds north of about 26N, except for fresh to strong 
northeast to east winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night
due to the diurnal trough that moves westward from the Yucatan 
peninsula. A mid to upper-level low acting on a very unstable 
and moisture-laden atmosphere will continue to result in scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms over mostly the SW Gulf, 
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere across
the basin south of about 28N. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning.

Divergence aloft is supporting a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and the western Greater 
Antilles. A strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic
continues to dominate the Caribbean. Outside of the Gale Warning 
area, strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough 
seas are found across the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong
NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring in the Gulf of
Honduras and the Windward Passage. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh 
easterly breezes and moderate seas are present in the eastern 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas are prevalent. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores
High north of the area along with lower pressure over N South
America will produce fresh to near gale trades over the central
Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds should reach gales
just north of Colombia tonight before slightly diminishing
tomorrow. Additionally, trades over the Gulf of Honduras will 
pulse to fresh to strong late afternoons and evenings through the 
weekend. A vigorous tropical wave should reach the Lesser 
Antilles Wed evening, bringing fresh to strong trades over the E 
Caribbean on Thu and Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge extends across the tropical
Atlantic along 27N, anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure system
near 27N43W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics results in strong easterly trade
winds and rough seas south of 23N and between 70W and 75W. Fresh
to locally strong easterly breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are found
south of 24N and east of 45W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and
seas of 4-7 ft are present north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to
a line from 30N20W to 24N45W and east of 45W. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. A weak front north of
our area and divergence aloft sustain scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms north of 27N and between 40W and 70W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging near 27N will
change little through Thu, then shift slightly north afterward. 
The associated gradient will continue to support moderate to fresh
trades south of 23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, 
except north of 29N where moderate to fresh south to southwest 
winds will exist. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas 
are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to
the Windward Passage through the weekend. 

$$
Delgado