000
AXNT20 KNHC 060501
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed May 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 27.5W, S of
10N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is 
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. 

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 62.5W, S of 19N, 
and is moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection 
is associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17.5W, and 
continues southwestward to 01.5N26.5W. The ITCZ continues from 
00.5N29W to near 00N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted S of 03N between 26W and 47W. Isolated
convection is noted S of 06.5N and east of 23W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The pressure gradient between a 1016 mb high pressure over the NE
Gulf and the relatively lower pressures in central Mexico is 
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the western Gulf 
and north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas over these waters are in 
the 3-5 ft range. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and seas of 
1-3 ft, prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the NE Gulf with lower 
pressures over Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh SE 
winds in the western Gulf and gentle to moderate winds in the 
eastern Gulf through Wed night. Winds will pulse to fresh to 
strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings. Similar winds 
will pulse from Tampico to Veracruz, Mexico late tonight into 
early Wed. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf 
coastal waters Thu morning, quickly stall Thu evening, then lift 
back to the north as a warm front Fri as high pressure ridging 
builds back in across the basin from the east. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and 
relatively lower pressure in northern South America continue to
support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-cetral
Caribbean including the Gulf of Venezuela, and seas of 6-7 ft. 
Moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, generally prevail elsewhere,
except for the Gulf of Honduras and north of Jamaica, where fresh
winds prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic 
high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South 
America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades over the 
south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through the 
rest of the week and into the weekend, with similar conditions 
expected in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades are 
expected across the remainder of the eastern and central 
Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb low pressure near 32N61W extends a stationary front 
through 31N61W to 25N70W to 1014 mb low pressure in the northern 
Bahamas at 26N78W. Scattered moderate convection is in the 
vicinity of the stationary front. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds,
and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail east of the front and north of 28N.
West of the front gentle to locally moderate winds prevail along
with seas to 6 ft. A surface trough is analyzed from 29.5N16W to 
24N30W. The pressure gradient between the surface trough, and a 
1029 mb high centered N of the area near 41N29W is supporting 
fresh to locally strong winds north of 25N between 17W and 34W. 
Seas within these winds are 6 to 9 ft. The remainder of the 
discussion waters N of 20N are dominated by high pressure. 
Moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail S of 15N between 35W 
and 60W. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 
ft, prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds in the SE 
quadrant of the low will impact the waters just south of 31N and 
east of the front through Wed as the low slowly shifts northeast. 
The northern portion of the front will slowly progress east as a 
cold front while the southern portion dissipates. A weak cold 
front will move off northern Florida Thu night, gradually losing 
definition as it shifts across the northern waters through Sat. 
Winds may pulse to moderate to fresh off northern Hispaniola, 
increasing to fresh to strong this weekend. Winds may freshen off 
northern Florida Sun night ahead of another front. Otherwise, 
relatively weak high pressure will be in place through the 
forecast period allowing for generally quiet conditions across the
area.

$$
KRV