000
AXNT20 KNHC 181507
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24/25W, south
of 16N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is 
discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. 

Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 43W, south of 
17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is 
discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 63W, south 
of 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are 
noted S of 14N between 61 and 64W. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 84W, south of
18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N to 13N between 82W and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 14N17W and extends SW to near 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from
07N27W to 06N41W. It resumes from 04N45W to 04N51W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N
between 15W and 47W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends from a 1025 mb subtropical high centered near 
27N55W into the eastern Gulf, with a surface trough extending from
eastern Mexico, across the SW Gulf. The pressure gradient between
these features is supporting fresh to strong winds across much of
the Gulf. Seas are in the 4-7 ft over much of the Gulf, reaching 8
ft off the coast of Louisiana. 

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into 
the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between this system and 
lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will support 
fresh to strong southerly winds over the western and central Gulf,
and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf through Fri. 
Expect rough seas N of 27N and offshore of the Louisiana coast 
this morning to shift eastward with these winds through Thu night 
before diminishing. Winds and seas will diminish basin-wide late 
Fri through the weekend as weak high pressure settles over the 
eastern Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends
westward along 27N-28N and across south-central Florida. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low is
supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, where
seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Fresh to locally strong winds are
over the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of
4-6 ft, are across the remainder of the Caribbean. 

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will remain in place north 
of the area through early next week, while weakening slightly Fri 
night through Sun, as a frontal system clips the waters off NE 
Florida. The pressure gradient south of the ridge will sustain 
fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the 
central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds 
and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at 
fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas are expected in 
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Mon, pulsing briefly to near 
gale- force tonight and Fri night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
are expected elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean through 
Mon night. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across SW
portions through Sat as an upper-level trough digs into the area.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough extends from 31N33W to 26N42W. Isolated moderate
convection is in the vicinity of the trough. The rest of the
discussion waters N of 20N is dominated by high pressure anchored
by a 1025 mb subtropical high centered near 27N55W, and a 1023 mb
high centered near 32N21W. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high pressure centers. Moderate to locally fresh
winds dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in
the 3-6 ft range. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will remain in 
place through early next week, while weakening slightly Fri night 
through Sun, as a frontal system clips the waters offshore of NE 
Florida. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to 
locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Sun. Moderate to 
locally fresh SW winds offshore of northeast Florida to near 75W 
will expand eastward to near 70W through tonight, as a weak 
frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front is 
expected to move slowly offshore early Sat and stall offshore NE 
Florida by Sun, allowing the moderate to fresh SW winds to shift 
eastward ahead of it across the northern waters. 

$$
AL