000
AXNT20 KNHC 142323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 45W from 10N 
to 18N, moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is
noted near the wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along a position 57W, S of 20N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 150 nm east of
the wave from 10N to 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and 
extends to 06.5N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues on to 04.5N35W to near 08N56W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is from 02.5N to 09.5N between 21W and
41W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A high pressure ridge extends from a 1020 mb high center that 
is over the southeastern U.S. southwestward to the western Gulf, 
while an old frontal boundary extends from the Straits of Florida 
to just N of the Yucatan Channel, where a few clusters of showers
are present. Recent satellite scatterometer data along with buoy 
observations reveal mostly moderate east winds south of 28N and 
east of 91W, and moderate to fresh east to southeast winds west of
91W. Light to gentle winds east to southeast winds are elsewhere.
Seas are in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for slightly lower 
seas of 1 to 3 ft over the northern Gulf. 

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf region 
through Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and 
slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the 
northwest Gulf late Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the 
central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and 
moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible 
over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW 
Gulf by Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with 
the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over 
the SW Gulf trough Sun. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid-level low located south-southwest over the NW Caribbean and
Yucatan Channel continues to sustain scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms over the waters from Cuba southward to the
Gulf of Honduras, while a mid to upper- level low over the 
central Caribbean continues to support scattered showers and 
thunderstorms over Hispaniola and the central Caribbean waters 
between 69 W and 79W. Latest satellite scatterometer data reveals 
a wide swath of fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the 
waters southwest of Haiti roughly from 14N to 18N between 72W and 
77W. A weak low of 1010 mb is analyzed in the southwestern 
Caribbean near 12.5N80W. A trough extends from the low northward 
to just southwest of Jamaica. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are seen from 11N to 17N between 75W and 79W. Moderate to fresh 
trade winds prevail across central and west-central portions of 
the basin between 69W and 81W, to the north and northeast of the 
western Caribbean low pressure. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this region.
Elsewhere moderate or weaker trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft 
prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure N of area will combine with the 
Colombian low to support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming 
weekend, with locally rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. 
Moisture associated with an uper-level trough over the central 
Caribbean will reach the NW Caribbean on Thu, keeping the chances 
of showers and thunderstorms across the basin. Gusty winds and 
locally rough seas will be associated with this convective 
activity. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging anchored by a 1020 mb in northern Alabama reaches
southward and southeastern to across the waters just north of the
Bahamas and to 65W. A trough, an old frontal boundary, extends 
from 31N61W, to 28N70W, to the central Bahamas and to the Straits
of Florida. Scattered showers are within 90 nm west of 65W. To 
the east, a 1015 mb low is centered near 25N67W, with a trough 
extending northeastward to 31N58W. An area of scattered moderate 
convection is evident within 75 nm of the low. This activity is 
ahead of an upper shortwave trough that is approaching from the 
NW. 

Over the eastern Atlantic, a weak 1012 mb low is near 21N36W as 
detected in recent satellite scatterometer satellite data. A 
trough extends from the low north-northwestward to 28N40W. A 
small mid to upper-level low moving west-southwestward is seen in 
water vapor imagery near 25N41W while a larger upper-level low 
moving westward is seen near 19N51W. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are noted from 22N to 27N between 30W and the 
trough. A tight gradient between the trough and high pressure to 
its north has resulted in an area of fresh to strong east to 
southeast winds that covers the water roughly from 20N to 27N 
between 29W and 36W. Seas are in the range of 8 to 11 ft within 
this area of winds. The remainder subtropical central and eastern 
Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High, which is 
generally supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds and 
moderate seas to 7 ft between the coast of NW Africa and 24W, 
including the waters adjacent to the Canary Islands. Moderate or 
weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere 
north of 20N and west of 24W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a band of showers and a few thunderstorms,
associated with an old frontal boundary, extends from 28N68W 
across the NW Bahamas and SE Florida into the Straits of Florida. 
Moisture and associated weather with this feature will move 
northward through at least Thu. A cold front will reach the NE 
waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger 
cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late
Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to 
South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and 
rough seas will follow the front. 

$$
Stripling