000
AXNT20 KNHC 092302
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jul 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South 
America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east 
trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of 
Venezuela into the weekend. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale- 
force off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela Fri 
night and again Sat night. Seas are expected to peak around 14 ft
off Colombia Sat night. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 41W south of 
15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is 
occurring near the wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W south of 19N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are occurring across the southern half of the wave. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 77W from 19N 
southward, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted across the southern half of the wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 10N24W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 10N39W. It resumes at 09N43W 
to 05N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical
waves, no significant convection is noted with the boundaries at
this time.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered moderate convection is ongoing along a surface trough 
running from the Bay of Campeche to the W Gulf. Surface ridging
prevails elsewhere, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near
29N85W. The weather pattern will support gentle to moderate east 
to southeast winds south of 26N east of 94W, and light to gentle 
southeast to south-southwest winds north of 26N. Light and 
variable winds are south of 26N west of 94W.

For the forecast, the weather pattern will change little through 
the weekend, then shift slightly southeastward afterward. 
Occasional fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse offshore
the Yucatan peninsula at night. The convection over the western
Gulf will persist into tonight. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
later this week and weekend.

The pressure gradient between ridging over the Atlantic and lower
pressures over northern South America continues to support fresh
to strong trades and rough seas across much of the central to SW
Caribbean, as well as through the Windward Passage. Moderate to 
fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean 
and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 
2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is 
ongoing across the SW Caribbean, enhanced by the eastern extension
of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are also occurring over the waters between 
Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale-force off Colombia, 
and in the Gulf of Venezuela, Fri night and Sat night. Trades over
the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the 
late afternoons and evenings through early next week. A tropical 
wave in the eastern Caribbean is accompanied by scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms. This activity will continue near the 
tropical wave as it moves rapidly across the central and western 
Caribbean the next couple of days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front segment runs along 30/31N between 33W and
43W. No notable convection or changes in marine conditions are 
occurring. Surface ridging prevails across much of the tropical 
and subtropical Atlantic, with moderate to fresh trades and 
moderate seas prevailing across areas S of 22N and W of 35W. 
Strong trades are seen along the northern coast of Hispaniola and
into the Windward Passage, as well as from 02N to 08N between 40W
and the Lesser Antilles. An area of fresh to strong winds from 
the NE is occurring N of 20N and E of 25W between a stronger 
pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower 
pressures over Africa. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 
ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging near 27N will
change little through the period. The weather pattern will 
generally support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light
to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate 
to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail through Sat night. 
Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at 
night north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the 
Windward Passage through early next week.

$$
ERA