000
AXNT20 KNHC 080617
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Jun 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is has come off the coast of West Africa. Its axis
extends from 03N to 12N and along 16W, moving westward at 5 kt.
There is no significant convection associated with it at this
time. 

A tropical wave is along 29W, south of 10N, moving westward at 15
to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 
10N between 25W and 35W.

A tropical wave is along 41W, south of 11N, moving westward at 
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the southern
portion of the wave and near the ITCZ from 02N to 06N between 38W
and 47W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea near 77W, south 
of 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave is interacting 
with an upper level low center to its W, producing scattered 
moderate convection from 14N to 19N between 70W and 81W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
West Africa near 12N16W, and continues southwestward to 08N19W. 
The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 05N26W, then west of a tropical
wave from 04N31W to 04N37W, then west of a second tropical wave
from 04N42W to 03N51W. See the tropical waves section for
information about convection.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure located over the central Atlantic extends a ridge 
across Florida and into the eastern Gulf region. This system is 
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds west of 90W, and in the
SE Gulf. Seas basin-wide are slight to moderate. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
region through Fri supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast
winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh winds 
in the western Gulf. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. A 
trough, or low pressure may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into
the south central or southwestern portions of the Gulf, perhaps 
from late Thu through Fri night accompanied by numerous showers 
and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building 
seas. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will move off the Yucatan 
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche at night through 
Wed attendant by fresh to strong winds and slight to moderate 
seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower 
pressures over Central America is maintaining moderate to fresh 
trade winds across the the majority of the basin along with mostly
moderate seas. A tropical wave moving across the central and
portions of the SW Caribbean is generating some showers across the
region. Elsewhere, patches of low level clouds, embedded in the 
trade wind flow, are noted producing isolated to scattered passing
showers.

For the forecast, as the pressure gradient tightens further 
between the Atlantic high pressure and a broad area of low 
pressure located over the eastern Pacific offshore of Central 
America this will likely lead to an increase of the trade winds to
fresh to strong speeds starting early Mon evening in the central 
and northwestern sections of the basin, and lasting through the 
rest of the period. Trade winds of fresh speeds are expected over 
the eastern section of the basin starting Wed night. The trade 
winds in the northwestern part of the basin are expected to become
fresh to strong, predominately southeast in direction, beginning 
on Wed as a trough, or low pressure may shift northward or 
northwestward from the Yucatan Peninsula into the south-central or
southwestern portions of the Gulf of America. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details including 
any related significant convection.

A surface trough extends from 28N72W to the central Bahamas. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the trough 
axis. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by
a broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure 
situated SW of the Azores. Under the influence of this system, a 
gentle to moderate E to SE flow is seen N of 20N E of the trough 
to about 48W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and rough seas
are found north of 20N and east of 44W, including the Canary 
Islands. The strongest winds are between the islands. Moderate to 
fresh trades and moderate seas to 7 ft are elsewhere S of 20N 
between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will remain nearly 
stationary through the early part of the week. A weak cold front 
will move across the N waters Tue, then stall near 27N through 
Wed, gradually dissipating by Thu. High pressure in the wake of 
the front will shift eastward north of the area through the end of
the week while weakening, with the associated ridge extending 
toward southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient will 
generally allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas. Moderate to fresh east winds are expected between 
the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, and westward to the 
waters between the Bahamas and Cuba beginning late Wed night. 
Increasing moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions is 
likely to impact the far western section of the basin during the 
week. 

$$
Ramos