000
AXNT20 KNHC 250521
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A tropical wave and 
associated area of low pressure is analyzed over the far eastern 
Atlantic a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde islands.
THe wave extends along 19W and S of 20N, with 1010 mb low 
centered near 11N19W. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are 
noted from 08N to 15N between 18W-22W. This system could become a 
tropical depression during the next few days while it moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern 
and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could 
become less conducive for development by the weekend. This system 
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 
days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on
this feature.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W, south of 
19N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers prevail along
the wave axis and S of 15N.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 61W south of 21N, 
moving westward around 10 kt. No convection is noted with this
wave at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W south of 21N to 
northwest Venezuela, moving westward around 10 kt. No convection 
is noted with this wave at this time.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N48W. The 
ITCZ extends from 11N48W to 06N51W to 08N59W. Aside from the 
convection associated with the tropical waves described above, 
scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either
side of the boundaries. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1016 mb high pressure is centered over the central Gulf near 
24N86W, and is generally producing light to gentle anticyclonic 
winds across the basin, except moderate NE winds in the eastern 
Bay of Campeche. Slight seas of 3 ft or less prevail over the 
basin per buoy observations. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over the
central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge 
remaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain 
gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend.
A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west
of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the 
period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America 
continues to allow for moderate to fresh trade winds over the 
central Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of NW
Venezuela and northern Colombia, with a narrow zone of strong
winds along the coasts near the Gulf of Venezuela and far NE
Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft with these trades. 
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 11N 
to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas 
elsewhere. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
occurring from 09N to 15N W of 80W, including over portions of 
northern Costa Rica, and Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the current pattern across the region will 
continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough 
seas over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside 
from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the 
basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following 
passages several tropical waves that will quickly move west across
the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
low pressure, Invest AL96, and tropical wave that emerged off 
Africa.

A weak surface trough is analyzed across the western Atlantic
extending SW through 30N75W to 27N79W. Scattered showers are 
within 60 nm of this trough. Moderate SW winds are occurring north
of the trough. A 1019 mb high pressure is east of this feature 
near 29N70W. South of the high, fresh E-SE winds are noted from 
the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands to near the 
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north
of 20N and west of 60W. Slight to moderate seas prevail north of 
20N and west of 61W. Invest AL95 is currently N of the area. Its 
associated trough prevails over the waters N of 26N between 60W 
and 62W. Scattered moderate convection prevails E of the trough 
mainly N of 24N between 55W-59W. Another weak surface trough is
analyzed in the East Atlantic from 29N32W to 25N34W. No 
convection related to this trough. Otherwise, broad high pressure
ridging prevails. Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 5 to 8 
ft seas. Winds are mainly moderate and seas moderate across any 
remainder waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the wake of Invest AL95 prevail north of 24N between 54W and 
60W. Fresh to strong south winds are north of 28N between 55W and
59W. These conditions will diminish through Tue as the low, 
possibly a tropical cyclone, moves farther away from the forecast 
waters. Elsewhere, moderate to at times fresh trades, will prevail
S of about 23N, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as 
the northern extent of tropical waves most westward across the far
southern waters into the weekend.

$$
ERA