744 
AXNT20 KNHC 131805
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jun 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W from 
is in the far eastern Atlantic from 02N to 16N, moving westward 
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
within 240 nm either side of the wave from 04N to 06N. 

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 
02N to 16N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Isolated, mostly
light showers are from 07N to 10N between 32W and 36W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 53W south of
19N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. No significant convection 
is currently occurring with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 79W south of
18N, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated showers are near the axis
within 30 nm of 15N79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N26W
where it transitions to the ITCZ extends to 05N35W. It resumes at 
05N36W to the Brazil near 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from 02N to 06N between 05W-16W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 
26W-30W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 26W-28W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A persistent broad area of low pressure present is over the
southwestern Gulf just offshore Mexico. Deep convection seen
during the morning over the southwestern Gulf has diminished. 
Latest satellite imagery shows numerous moderate-type convection 
from 19N to 23N between 92W and 95W. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere from 19N to 25N west of 91W.
At the surface, a tight pressure gradient between the low pressure 
area and the Atlantic ridge that extending westward into the 
north-central Gulf is generally maintaining fresh to strong
southeast winds along with moderate to locally rough seas to
around 9 ft south of 26N and west of 88W. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned broad area of low pressure  
will move inland northeastern Mexico by early Sun. The system 
could re-emerge over the NW Gulf on Tue or Wed while interacting 
with a frontal boundary, however, conditions there are also 
expected to be only marginally conducive for development. The 
pressure gradient between the low pressure area and a ridge over 
the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to 
rough seas, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, 
through Sun night. Atlantic high pressure will build westward into
the Gulf Tue and Wed, with the associated pressure gradient 
leading to moderate to fresh southerly winds basin-wide.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends westward
near 27N to across Florida. The related pressure gradient is 
generally allowing for fresh to near gale-force trade winds along 
with moderate in the central and southeastern portions of the 
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras as seen in the latest scatterometer
data passes. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate 
seas are elsewhere, except for lighter trades winds of gentle
speeds over the waters between Cuba and 20N west of about 75W.
Seas are in the 2 to 4 range with these winds. Moderate or 
lighter winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere 
across the basin.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are north of 18N between 
southwestern Haiti and 84W, including the approach to the 
Windward Passage, as divergence aloft sustains this activity. 
Strong convection across interior portions of the Gulf of Honduras
and over southern Belize is along the southeast periphery of the
area of broad low pressure that is in the southwestern Gulf of 
America.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in 
place through Sun, with its related pressure gradient allowing for
a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough
seas across the central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas 
off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong southeast winds and 
rough seas will also persist over the Gulf of Honduras and 
northwestern Caribbean west of 85W through tonight. The ridge 
north of the area will reorganize Sun night through Mon then shift
slowly northeastward through midweek, leading to a slight 
decrease in wind and seas across the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N36W to 29N41W, then dissipating
to 29N43W and trough to 29N47W and to near 31N52W. Isolated 
rather weak showers are seen from 29N to 30N between 46W and 49W. 
The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad 
subtropical ridge that extends across central Florida, and that is 
anchored by a 1026 mb high near 31N30W and a 1022 mb high near
26N58W, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 21N
west of 35W along with mostly moderate seas. Moderate to fresh 
northerly winds and moderate seas exist north of about 15N
and east of 22W while moderate northeast winds are from 12N
to 25N between 22W and 35W. Seas are in the moderate range are
in these areas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will generally 
remain in place through Sun. The ridge will then reorganize along
about 60W Sun night and Mon, then shift slowly NE Tue through 
Wed. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 
22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh
southwest winds will develop across the northwest waters north of
about 29N and west of 74W Sun evening through Tue as a weak 
frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong 
winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters 
near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. 

$$
Aguirre