000
AXNT20 KNHC 150945
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter 
the northwest Gulf late on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida 
to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds 
and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales 
possible over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and 
over the SW Gulf by Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are 
expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to
persist over the SW Gulf trough Sun.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends SW
to 05N53W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N53W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02N to 11N 
and E of 38W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean is supporting 
showers across the western half of the basin. A high pressure 
ridge extends from a 1019 mb high center that is over the Florida 
Panhandle. Recent scatterometer data along with buoy observations 
reveal moderate to fresh east winds east of 90W, and moderate east
to southeast winds west of 90W. Over the eastern Bay of Campeche,
a surface trough is generating scattered showers and fresh to 
near gale force SE to E winds. Seas basin- wide are slight to 
moderate. Locally higher seas are likely with the convection 
associated with the trough offshore Yucatan. Otherwise, the 
remnants of a surface trough are supporting scattered showers in 
the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. 

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf region through
Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight 
to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest 
Gulf late Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay
of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to 
rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the 
west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by 
Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the 
strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the 
SW Gulf through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean are supporting 
isolated showers across the western half of the basin, except for 
scattered showers and tstms along a surface trough that extends 
from 13N81W to 20N81W. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to 
strong E to SE winds in the vicinity of this convective activity 
where seas to 8 ft are likely. Otherwise, surface ridging N of the
region, is supporting moderate to fresh easterlies in the central
Caribbean and moderate or weaker trades elsewhere. Seas are 3-4 
ft over the NW and E basin, and 5 to 6 ft over the central and 
portions of the SW Caribbean. 

For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the 
Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming 
weekend, with rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Moisture
associated with an uper-level trough over the central Caribbean 
will reach the NW Caribbean today, keeping the chances of showers 
and thunderstorms across the basin high. Gusty winds and rough 
seas will be associated with this convective activity. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed along 67W with scattered
showers in its vicinity. Surface high pressure over the SE CONUS 
and NE of Bermuda support mainly light to gentle winds, and slight
to moderate seas over the west and central subtropical Atlantic 
waters. Fresh easterly winds are ongoing in the Great Bahama 
Bank. Otherwise, the subtropical eastern Atlantic is under the 
influence of the Azores High, which is generally supporting 
moderate to fresh northeast winds and moderate seas to 6 ft 
between the coast of NW Africa and 22W, including the waters 
adjacent to the Canary Islands. A 1011 mb low is located near 
21N36W, which is generating scattered showers from 19N to 27N 
between 28W and 39W. Moderate to fresh winds are in the northern 
semicircle of the low to approximately 27N along with rough seas 
to 9 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough E of the Bahamas
is forecast to dissipate later today. A cold front will reach the
NE waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger
cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by 
late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda
to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and
rough seas will follow the front. 

$$
ERA