000
AXNT20 KNHC 152010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low 
pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not
expected during the next day or so while the trough remains 
inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern 
Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental 
conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a 
short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday. 
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across 
southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and 
Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over 
the next several days which could produce widespread, life-
threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and 
coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the 
northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings 
could be required on Tue. Additional information on this system 
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather 
Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. This area has a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. 
Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers ABNT20 
KNHC/TWOAT or at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 22W, south of 
18N just east of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward at 
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N 
to 11N between 13W and 24W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 16N, moving 
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
present from 03N to 09N and between 34W and 41W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 18N to Suriname,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is present from 07N to 10N between 51W and 62W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20N or Hispaniola
to portions of far NW Venezuela and eastern Colombia, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen over the 
waters south of 16N in the south-central Caribbean with deep
convection present and enhanced over portions of Venezuela and
Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 07N33W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 06N40W and then resumes from 05.5N42.5W
to 07N55W. In addition to convection described above in the 
TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is found
from 05N to 08N between 45W and 49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of
America.

Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near
the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana with a frontal
boundary inland over Texas and Mexico, as well as multiple surface
troughs analyzed inland. The tightening pressure gradient between
these troughs and a subtropical ridge stemming from the Atlantic
support moderate to locally fresh SE winds and in the W Gulf, as 
well as in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas in the Gulf range from 1-2 E of 90W, except to 4
ft near the Yucatan Channel, and 3-5 ft W of 90W.

For the forecast, a trough with weak low pressure along it is 
inland northeastern Mexico. It will slowly move northward during 
the next couple of days. It is then forecast to move northeastward
along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf 
late Tue or Wed, at which time environmental conditions may be 
marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical 
storm Wed into Thu. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are 
expected over the NW Gulf through Thu. Otherwise, a tightening 
pressure gradient over the area will sustain fresh to strong 
southerly winds over the western Gulf early Wed through late Thu 
night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds 
begin to diminish Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing in
the far SW Caribbean, near the East Pacific monsoon trough. The 
pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the 
Colombia Low supports fresh to strong E winds and rough seas 
across much of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh 
trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean,
except locally strong offshore central Honduras. Gentle to 
moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the gradient between broad Atlantic high 
pressure and relatively lower pressures south of the Greater 
Antilles will sustain a rather extensive area of fresh to strong 
trade winds in the south-central section of the basin through the 
forecast period. The highest of the winds and seas are expected 
off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle 
to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will
become southeast at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N42W to 25N55W to 19N64W, 
with scattered moderate convection seen N of 29N between 35W and
50W. Another surface trough is analyzed N of the Bahamas from
31N76W to 27N79W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are N of 27N and E of
the trough to 67W along with 4-6 ft seas. Some scattered showers
are found near the trough. Otherwise, ridging extends and
dominates from 31N28W to 1024 mb high pressure near 29N34W to 1022
mb high pressure near 26N61W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker
across the remainder of the waters W of 35W, except moderate to 
fresh S of 22N near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong
N-NE winds are found offshore Africa from 20N to 31N to the E of
20W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found from this area to
the Lesser Antilles in a belt extending N of the ITCZ where three
Atlantic tropical waves are present as described in detail above.
Seas of 3-6 ft dominate the open tropical Atlantic waters in mixed
NE-E and NW-N swells.

For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area 
will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night. 
The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally 
fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing some in 
coverage beginning Fri night. Moderate to fresh southwest winds 
east of northeast Florida to near 74W are ahead of a trough. These
winds will expand eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak 
frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. It is expected 
to move offshore late Fri night and stall offshore northeast 
Florida Sat and Sat night. Expect fresh to strong winds each 
afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto 
Rico and Hispaniola. 

$$
Lewitsky