000
AXNT20 KNHC 211740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
The Gambia near 13N17W, and continues west-southwestward to 
08N31W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N40W and to 
near 09N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm 
of the trough between the coast of Africa and 17W. Similar
activity is within 60 nm south of the trough between 24W-27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough is in the SW Gulf from near 21N95W to 18N94W. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm west of the 
trough from 19N to 21N, and within 90 nm east of the trough south 
of 19N. Another trough extends from near Corpus Christi to 27N96W 
and to 24N96.5W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 30 
nm east of the trough from 27N to 28N. Fresh to strong northwest
winds are west of the SW Gulf trough as high pressure southward 
over Mexico. Seas with these winds are about 8 to 9 ft. Broad high
pressure is elsewhere over the basin, with the resultant pressure
gradient generally allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to 
east winds east of about 94W, and gentle to moderate northeast 
winds elsewhere west of 94W. Seas are mostly in the moderate 
range.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds west of the SW Gulf 
will diminish to fresh speeds late tonight. A tightening pressure
gradient between the ridge and a low pressure forecast to develop
near the Bahamas will bring fresh to strong northeast winds and 
moderate to rough seas over the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat. 
These marine conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf 
Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to around 
13 ft with these winds over the southeastern Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are persistent 
offshore Colombia to near 13N between 73W and 77W. High pressure 
north of the area and a nearby stationary frontal boundary support
moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the waters north
of 20N. Moderate to fresh trades along with seas of 3 to 5 ft are
found from 11.5N to 16N and east of 80W. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will 
promote gentle to moderate winds through Fri. The pressure 
gradient between a developing low pressure near the Bahamas and 
Atlantic high pressure will induce moderate to fresh east to 
southeast winds over the eastern Caribbean beginning Fri night. 
This weather pattern will also produce gentle to moderate 
northerly winds over the western part of the basin, with the 
exception of moderate to fresh northeast winds in the Yucatan 
Channel, and mainly light to gentle winds over the central 
Caribbean. These marine conditions are forecast to last through 
the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from 31N64W to 27N70W and to the
central Bahamas and to central Cuba. Scattered showers are 
occurring near this boundary. Ahead of it, a trough extends from
near 26N68W to 23N72W and to the Windward Passage. Numerous
moderate convection is seen from 22N to 27N between 66W and 72W.
Overnight scatterometer data highlighted moderate to fresh 
north to northeast winds behind the front. Seas over these waters
are in the 8 to 13 ft range per latest satellite altimeter data 
and buoy observations. Farther east, weak low pressure of 1012 mb 
is near 28N57W. It is along a NW to SE oriented trough that 
extends from near 3163W to the low and continues southeastward to 
near 24N54W. The combination of these features with a broad upper-
level trough in the vicinity will continue to result in a large 
area of numerous to isolated strong convection over the waters 
from 22N to 30N between 45W and 57W. Moderate to fresh southerly 
winds along with moderate seas are east of the surface trough.

Meanwhile, well east of the Lesser Antilles, an area of scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms is from 12N to 17N between 47W 
and 54W. Isolated showers are from 13N to 18N between 38W and 47W.
To the NE, a trough extends from 30N24W to 22N23W. No deep
convection is noted with this feature. Latest scatterometer data 
shows light to gentle northeast to east winds within 180 nm either 
side of the trough from 22N to 24N and moderate to fresh northeast 
to east winds north of 24N between 16W and 34W. Seas over these
waters are 5 to 7 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic east 
of about 55W is under the influence of strong high pressure
ridging, with the parent high center of 1031 mb located to the
north of the Azores. The related pressure gradient is maintaining 
moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and
NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends from 
near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba. Winds 
will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds later today while seas 
will slowly subside across the waters W of 65W and NE of the 
Bahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop 
beginning late on Fri as high pressure builds southward over the 
western Atlantic and low pressure develops near the Bahamas along 
a remnant frontal trough. This setup is expected to induce 
widespread fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough to 
very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over the 
waters roughly NW of a line from near 31N60W to the northern 
Bahamas on Sun. Mariners should monitor the latest marine 
forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. 

$$
Aguirre