415 
AXNT20 KNHC 070506
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Aug 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda 
High and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong
trades in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean 
through Mon night. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region 
will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and
accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speed at 
night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at 
times this weekend with the increase in wind speed. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 21W south 20N. Numerous moderate 
convection is noted E of 20W.

A second tropical wave is along 40W S of 20N, and moving west at 
15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at 
this time.

A third tropical wave is along 52W S of 20N, moving west at 15 to
20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at 
this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W to 12N38W. The
ITCZ continues from 10N41W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection 
associated with the tropical waves, limited convective activity is
noted elsewhere. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak ridging extends from the western Atlantic to the west-central
Gulf. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds
across the Gulf. Seas are 2-4 ft over the southwest Gulf and 1-3
ft elsewhere. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are moving off
the Florida coast north of Tampa Bay into the far northeast Gulf.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active elsewhere north of
the Yucatan Channel, and off the coast of Veracruz.
 
For the forecast, surface ridging will dominate across most of 
the Gulf through late Tue, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE 
winds north of 24N along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds 
will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the 
Bay of Campeche each night as a surface trough migrates from the 
Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are 
forecast for this portion of the basin through Tue night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high located near Bermuda
and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades
over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of 
Venezuela, along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh 
trades are elsewhere over the E Caribbean, the Gulf of Honduras 
and in the lee side of Cuba. Seas are generally moderate. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active from Jamaica to 
Grand Cayman to the coast of Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support 
fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW
basin through Tue night. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the 
region will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure 
gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the 
Gulf of Venezuela to near-gale speed and to gale-force speed at 
night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at 
times this weekend with the increase in wind speed. Fresh winds 
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through 
the forecast period, except over the weekend when winds may pulse 
to strong speed. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh easterlies 
will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off the central
Bahamas, and along a surface trough reaching from north of the
central Bahamas southward toward central Cuba. Farther north, 
1025 mb high pressure is centered near Bermuda. Fresh to strong E
winds prevail over the northern end of the trough from 25N to 29N
between 70W and 77W. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass showed
rough seas to 9 ft in this area as well. Moderate to fresh 
easterly winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere west of 65W. 
Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted 
across the Canary Islands and off Western Sahara. Gentle to 
moderate easterly flow and 4-6 ft seas are noted over the 
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will continue to
support shower and thunderstorm activity across the Florida 
seaboard and offshores tonight into Fri morning before shifting 
west of the area Fri night into early Sat. Aside from the shower 
activity, the surface trough will bring fresh to locally strong 
winds and rough seas across the Bahamas offshores through tonight.
Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approaches 
of the Windward Passage through the period, reaching strong speeds
Sun night, Mon night, and Tue night as the Bermuda High shifts 
southward. 

$$
ERA