000
AXNT20 KNHC 181733
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon May 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high
near 31N35W and lower pressures over northern Africa supports
strong to near gale force NE winds generally E of 20W and N of
17N. Winds are expected to increase today and accordingly, Meteo-
France has issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir zone through at
least 19/00 UTC. Rough seas will accompany these winds as well.

For more information, please read the Meteo-France warning text 
and High Seas forecast at:
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 11N,
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen near
the south end of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W, south of 14N, and
is nearly stationary. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are seen from 04N to 08N between 50W and 55W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 17N, and
is nearly stationary. Convection is addressed in the monsoon
trough section below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W, then continues 
southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N25W to 00N48W. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen S of 06N 
between 23W and 37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The pressure gradient between a broad subtropical ridge over the 
Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico sustain fresh SE winds 
and moderate seas over much of the western and south- central Gulf
waters. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail. No convection is present in the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will 
extend a ridge over and just north of the Gulf through late week. 
Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this
week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. 
Also expect fresh to strong wind pulses off the northwest Yucatan 
peninsula during the evenings through mid-week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft is sustaining scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the vicinity of Hispaniola, the Windward 
Passage, and in the waters between Cuba and Jamaica. A tight 
pressure gradient between the subtropical high to the north and 
low pressure over Colombia is supporting strong NE to E winds and 
7 to 10 ft seas in the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh trades and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support 
fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf 
of Honduras into Wed, with moderate to fresh trades across the 
remainder of the forecast waters. Rough seas can be expected in 
the central Caribbean during this time. Large E swell resulting in
rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters into Tue 
night, then begin to subside. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from 31N61W to 25N70W. 
Coupling with an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic, 
scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 21N between 
66W and 73W. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are also 
occurring across much of the Bahamas. Elsewhere, most of the 
basin is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge stemming from
a 1028 mb high centered near 31N35W. The pressure gradient 
between this high and low pressure along the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ is leading to fresh trades S of 24N, with gentle to moderate 
winds to the north. Locally strong trades and locally rough seas 
are ongoing from 07N to 13N between 42W and 47W, confirmed by a 
recent scatterometer pass. Moderate seas generally prevail across
the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the 
central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and rough seas 
with E swell east of the Leeward Islands and N of Hispaniola 
today. A weak surface trough from E of Bermuda to around 25N70W 
will dissipate today, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place 
through mid-week. 

$$
Adams