000
AXNT20 KNHC 190425
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Mar 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale-warning is in effect, issued by
Meteo-France, for the high seas zones of Irving, west of Madeira,
and Meteor until 19/12 UTC at least, with severe gusts. Please
refer to the next Special Feature for details on associated large
swells. Please refer to the high seas forecast issued by Meteo-
France on the website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Large, long-period north swell
generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in the 
northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N 
through the weekend. Expect seas of 12-24 ft through Sat mainly N 
of the Cape Verde Islands and east of 43W. Seas across these 
northeastern waters will then gradually reduce in areal coverage 
and subside below 12 ft near the Canary Islands on Mon. Please 
refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near
11N14W, then curves southwestward to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues 
from 03N17W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N and
west of 11W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1025 mb high pressure system near the mouth of the Mississippi
River dominates the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and lower pressures associated with a stationary front
east of the area results in moderate to fresh northerly winds and
moderate seas in the eastern Gulf, east of 90W, and eastern Bay 
of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the
Gulf region and a frontal boundary over the Caribbean Sea will
support moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate to rough
seas over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida through Fri. 
Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected across the eastern Bay of 
Campeche at night through Sat night. Elsewhere gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through Sun. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 22N80W to the 
Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras. A surface trough is analyzed
from 11N78W to Cayman Brac near 20N80W. Low level convergence 
induced by both the front and the pre-frontal trough continue to 
support scattered showers near these boundaries. Fresh to locally strong
northerly winds with seas of 5 to 9 ft prevail N of the front.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring
east of 78W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas 
will continue to follow the aforementioned front through Fri 
night as it transitions to a cold front Thu before dissipating 
offshore Nicaragua late Fri. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE winds
will remain in the western Caribbean, including the lee side of 
Cuba and the Windward Passage as high pressure develops across the
northern Bahamas in the wake of the front. As the ridge shifts 
slightly eastward, fresh to strong winds will develop offshore 
Colombia Sun through Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an east
Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France, and associated large
northerly swells.

A stationary front extends from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and 
central Cuba. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 31N66W to the
SE Bahamas. Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident
east of the front to 65W. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to
rough seas are noted west of the front. The strongest winds are
occurring off SE Florida and the NW Bahamas.

An extensive 1036 mb high pressure system centered near 37N45W 
dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Fresh to near 
gale-force winds are found north of 22N and east of 40W to the 
coast of Africa associated with the storm force system discussed 
in the Special Features section. Fresh to locally strong winds and
rough seas under a relatively tight pressure gradient are present
between 60W and 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will 
remain nearly stationary west of Bermuda to the central Bahamas on
Thu, then it will transition to a cold front as a low pressure 
attached to the front moves quickly NE and N of the forecast 
through Sat night. High pressure over the SE CONUS and over the 
north-central Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong 
winds and rough seas on either side of front and across the 
offshore forecast waters N of 25N through the weekend. A new cold 
front is forecast to enter the NE Florida offshore waters Mon 
night into Tue, which will bring strong and very rough seas to the
area. 

$$
Delgado