000
AXNT20 KNHC 251059
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 42.8W at 25/0900 UTC
or 930 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 17 ft are occurring within 
45 nm across the N semicircle. Numerous moderate convection is 
noted from 28N to 31N between 39W and 46W. Some slight 
strengthening is possible over the next 12 hours. Thereafter, 
gradual weakening is expected through the weekend.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 14.2N 22.4W at 25/0900
UTC or 120 nm ESE of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving
NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak
seas are near 15 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection
extends from 10N to 23N between 17W and 22W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 30N between 17W and 29W. On the 
forecast track, the center will pass near or over portions of the 
Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. Some strengthening is 
possible today, with a gradual weakening trend forecast to begin 
this weekend. Swells generated by the storm are expected to 
affect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay
and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Heavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A mid to 
upper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm
sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are 
present. This pattern will aid in funneling enhanced tropical 
moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, 
supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat. There is still 
some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest 
rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme 
southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, 
western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as 
well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, 
scattered moderate isolated strong showers and thunderstorms 
are in the Gulf of Honduras, as well as across the offshore waters
of Panama and Costa Rica. Heavy rainfall across these regions 
will create the possibility of life-threatening flash flooding 
and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as 
the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more 
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 55W, from 07N to 16N, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated
with it at the time.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean along 77W, south of 13N 
into central Colombia, moving westward at 15 kt. Heavy showers and
tstms are occurring over the Panama and Costa Rica offshore waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N25W to 08N37W to 11N48W. There
is no well defined ITCZ further west at this time. See T.S.
Gonzalo in the Special Features section for information on
convection.  

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from SE Louisiana to Cape Coral, FL. Ahead of
this front, a weakening cold front extends from the Straits of
Florida NW to Houston, Texas while a surface trough and a low are 
over the E Bay of Campeche, generating some scattered showers.
Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are in the wake or behind
these frontal boundaries while seas are slight to moderate.

For the forecast, the cold front will merge with a weakening cold
front over the SE Gulf later today and then move E of the Gulf 
tonight into Sat. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the 
front through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into 
early next week.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean that is
expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of 
Central America into the weekend.

Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the south-central basin
along with moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient due to the passage of 
a frontal boundary N of the area will support moderate to fresh 
trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere. A middle to upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean 
will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over 
that region through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical 
Storm Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo. 

A dissiapting stationary front extends from near 31N72W to the 
Straits of Florida. A reinforcing cold front is across the NW 
waters from 31N75W to near Stuart, Florida. Heavy showers and
tstms are ahead of these boundaries and a 1011 mb low centered
near 28N75W. These showers extends as far as 66W, including the
Great Bahama Bank and the approaches to the Windward Passage. A
broad surface ridge covers the remainder central and eastern
subtropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough is near the SW
periphery of the ridge, extending from 26N54W to 22N60W, which is
generating scattered showers from 21N to 28N between 51W and 59W.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds follow the frontal boundaries while
mainly moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the boundaries to
63W. Rough seas to 13 ft are behind the front. Moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are elsewhere in the subtropical waters,
except in the vicinity of Fay. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will merge 
with a trailing cold front and then shift eastward, reaching from
near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat night before starting 
to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and 
increasing seas will follow the front through today, before 
decreasing on Sat.

$$
Ramos