000
AXNT20 KNHC 281634
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 27.1N 44.6W at 28/1500
UTC or 1100 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SSW at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 8 ft are within 90 nm
across the NW quadrant of the depression. Numerous moderate 
isolated strong convection is from 25N to 28N between 43W and 
45.5W. The T.D. is expected to move southwest and then to the 
west-southwest, along with an increase in forward motion. Little 
change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, and Fay 
is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean analyzed along 72.5W, south 
of 16N into western Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. There is no 
convection over the central basin associated with this wave at 
this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 20N16W to 07N41W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N41W to 09N59.5W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 09N to 15N between 22W and 35.5W. Similar convection is
depicted from 05.5N to 13N between 43W and 55W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Abundant low level moisture embedded in southeasterly flow from 
the Yucatan is converging over the SE Gulf, under favorable upper
level conditions is producing numerous moderate isolated strong 
convection S of 25.5N between 83W and 91W southward to 21N. At 
the surface, a lingering surface trough extends across the SW 
basin along about 96W. A weak stationary front is depicted over the
coastal waters from Mobile Bay to near Mexico Beach, Florida. 
Light and variable winds prevail across the entire basin. Seas 
basin- wide are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate 
seas will become gentle to moderate SE winds across the basin 
tonight and prevail through Tue night as high pressure builds over
the southeast U.S. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh winds 
and building seas over mostly the western Gulf starting midweek, 
as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving 
through the Southern Plains and approaching the northwest Gulf by 
late Fri. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper level trough is supporting scattered moderate
convection west of 75W. A weak pressure gradient persists across 
the basin, due to a weakening front N of the region, and is 
translating to gentle to moderate trades over the eastern and 
central basin as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across east and 
central portions and 3 to 4 ft, and less than 3 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a trough over the Bahamas has displaced the 
usual subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean. This pattern is 
supporting gentle to moderate trade winds and slight seas across 
the basin. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and building 
seas across the basin by mid week as the high pressure builds 
north of the area, with rough seas possible in the Yucatan Channel
and far NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Depression Fay. 

A weakening frontal trough remains stationary across the NW 
Atlantic waters from 31N67W and meanders southwestward into the 
central Bahamas. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms 
continue along this feature, from 23N to 31N between 64W and 77W.
Light to gentle winds are found to the NW of the trough. To the E
of it, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are noted to 61W. 
T.D. Fay is centered near 27.1N 44.6W, and is sandwiched in 
between to high centers at 26N39W and 29N53W. This pattern is 
leading to gentle to moderate NE to E winds S of 22N between 35W 
and the Lesser Antilles, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Further east, the 
1011 mb remnants of Gonzalo are near 21N25W, and is still 
producing moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and rough seas to the N
and W of the center. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate winds 
and seas dominate.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few 
thunderstorms persist along a trough reaching from 31N67W to the 
central Bahamas offshore waters. Moderate SW winds and moderate 
seas ahead of the front will continue to diminish today. Looking 
ahead, high pressure will build north of the area supporting 
moderate to fresh E winds and 3-5 ft seas south of 25N by midweek.


$$
KRV