000
AXNT20 KNHC 071108
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Nine has intensified into Tropical Storm 
Isaias, which is centered near 22.0N 94.1W at 07/0900 UTC or 250 
nm W of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 10 to 11 ft. Numerous strong 
convection extends from 20N to 26N between 90W and 96W. On the 
forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the 
Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf 
Coast on Friday. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next 
day or two, and Isaias is expected to become a hurricane by 
Thursday. Swells are expected to affect the western and northern 
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread
northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 19W, extending from 
05N-20N. Scattered moderate convection extends from 07N to 16N
between 17W and 23W.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean with an axis near 67W, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 63W and 69W. This 
wave is also forcing fresh to locally strong winds over the NE
Caribbean and southern Puerto Rico adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends to
14N26W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 08N50W to 11N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 17N between 23W and
37W, and from 07N to 10N between 36W and 50W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
information on Tropical Storm Isaias. 

Tropical Storm Isaias is near 22.0N 94.1W at 5 AM EDT, and is 
moving east-northeast at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt 
with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. 
Aside from the cyclone, a stationary front extends from N of Tampa
Bay to a 1008 mb low near 27N86W where it starts to dissipate. The
front is generating scattered to isolated showers across the
northern Gulf. Northeast fresh to strong winds are behind the
front over the NE Gulf while moderate to locally fresh NE winds
are across the NW offshores. Seas are slight to moderate with this
frontal boundary.  

For the forecast, Isaias will move to 22.2N 92.9W this afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 22.7N 91.4W Thu morning, 23.9N 
89.7W Thu afternoon, 25.5N 88.5W Fri morning, 27.7N 87.7W Fri 
afternoon, and inland to 30.8N 87.7W Sat morning. Isaias will 
weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 38.2N 
87.5W early Sun. Otherwise, a stationary front along the north- 
central and NE Gulf will gradually weaken through this evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in
the eastern Caribbean. 

The presence of a frontal boundary N of the Bahamas and Tropical 
Storm Isaias in the Gulf of America maintain a weak pressure 
gradient over the western and central Caribbean along with slight
to moderate seas. Over the E basin, the passage of a tropical
wave, currently moving across the Mona Passage just to the W of
Puerto Rico, is supporting moderate to fresh winds and moderate
seas. Gusty winds and rough seas are possible in the vicinity of
the wave due to the strong convection. 

For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the 
western Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds 
across most of the basin through early Thu morning. Afterward, 
high pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda, which
will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This 
will increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh 
speeds Fri. These trades will then be at mostly moderate to fresh 
speeds Fri night through Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N68W to a 1010 mb low near 30N78W
to Cape Canaveral. Scattered heavy showers are occuring across the
offshores N of 27N from the coast of Florida to nearly 60W. Ahead
of the front, a 1017 mb high prevails to the SE of Bermuda, which
is supporting moderate or weaker winds over the subtropical waters 
W of 40W. However, winds N of the frontal boundary are fresh to
strong and seas are moderate to rough. A pair of troughs are in
the central subtropical Atlantic waters generating scattered
moderate convection and tstms. Finally over the E Atlantic, the
Azores high dominates, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to
E winds and moderate seas E of 40W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will transition
to a slow moving cold front today, then weaken past Bermuda late 
Thu before dissipating Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds 
and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida 
through this evening. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas 
will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure 
developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase 
trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and 
Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds 
again off NE Florida by Fri morning as Tropical Storm Isaias 
tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer
to the SE early on Sat before weakening by Sun morning. 

$$
Ramos