000
AXNT20 KNHC 231039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jun 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave is near 23W from 13N southward, and 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is observed from 02N to 07N between 23W and 
29W.

An eastern tropical wave is near 46W from 15N southward, and 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 06N to 09N between 44W and 52W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 58W from 16N southward, 
and moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is found from 06N to 10N between 53W and 60W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 15N southward,
and moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is found over the northern coast of western 
Panama, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward to 05N33W. An ITCZ
continues westward from 05N33W to 05N45W to the northern coast of
Suriname. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
flaring up south of the monsoon trough from 11N to 13N west of 
19W. No significant convection is evident near the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating
scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near the northern
coast of eastern Panama, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An modest upper-level trough extends southwestward from the
northeastern Gulf to beyond near Veracruz, Mexico. This feature is
triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the
western Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high at the east-
central Gulf continues to dominate the Gulf, with light to gentle
winds and 1 to 3 ft seas across the eastern Gulf. Moderate to
fresh SE to S winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the western
Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure south of the Florida Panhandle 
will dominate the Gulf through the weekend. Fresh to strong NE to 
E winds will pulse off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly 
through Wed night, then mainly fresh afterward. A moderate 
pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh southerly winds 
over the western and south-central Gulf through early this morning
before diminishing to between gentle and moderate by late this 
morning. Slight to moderate seas will be with these winds. Light 
winds along with slight seas will prevail over the eastern Gulf 
through the week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad Atlantic Ridge near 29N continues to support a robust
trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Convergent trades are
producing scattered moderate convection south of the Cayman
Islands, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean
Sea. Strong with locally near-gale NE to E winds and seas of 12 
to 14 ft are present at the south-central basin, while fresh to 
strong E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas exist at the north-central 
basin. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted 
at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds with 4
to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin, including the 
Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the Atlantic Ridge of high pressure will 
prevail north of the area near 29N. The pressure gradient between 
this ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong 
trade winds, and moderate to rough seas in the central basin 
through Wed morning. For Wed afternoon and night, fresh to strong 
trades should be confined to the south-central basin before 
expanding northward again Thu through the weekend. These winds are
expected to peak at near-gale force offshore of northwestern 
Colombia, south of 14N during the nighttime and early morning 
hours, except for Wed night and Thu morning. Pulsing fresh to 
strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in 
the Gulf of Honduras nightly. Moderate to fresh trades with rough 
seas should persist east of the Lesser Antilles until Wed morning,
then moderate winds and seas afterward. Moderate to fresh winds 
are expected over much of the remainder of the Caribbean through 
the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low near 27N60W is triggering isolated thunderstorms
25N to 29N between 60W and 65W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ 
and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic
Basin. An expansive surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high at 
the central Atlantic near 33N41W across 31N40W to beyond southern 
Florida. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE to
SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft, north of 23N between 35W and the
Florida east coast/Bahamas. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to
23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E
trades and 6 to 9 ft seas are seen. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic
Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the 
western Atlantic through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly 
winds with locally rough seas are expected off northern Hispaniola
each night through Sat night. Moderate or lighter winds and 
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. 

$$

Chan