000
AXNT20 KNHC 040357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jun 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1033 
mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower
pressures in northwest Africa result in strong to near gale- 
force northerly winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zones. Gale- 
force winds are expected from 04/1500 to 05/0000 UTC with severe 
gusts. These winds will produce rough seas. Similar conditions 
will persist into the weekend. For more details, refer to the 
Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 13N, moving
westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W, south of 15N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 07N to 11N between 45W and 53W. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 16N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. No deep convection is noted over the
Caribbean waters. The wave is enhancing the shower and 
thunderstorm activity across NE South America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N23W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 03N34W and from 03N37W to 02N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 12N and east
of 22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from southern Florida to SE Louisiana.
A surface trough extends from 27N88W to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. A tight pressure gradient behind the front forces fresh
to strong easterly winds and moderate seas. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas are present north
of a line from western Cuba to southern Texas. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. Divergence aloft and 
plenty of tropical moisture result in scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf waters, east of 90W. 
 
For the forecast, the trough will track north-northwestward 
through Fri. Interaction between this trough and the front is 
going to sustain fresh to strong ENE to SE winds with moderate to 
rough seas across the central and eastern Gulf, north of 25N 
through Fri evening. In addition, a persistent upper-level trough 
across the western Gulf will continue to enhance sporadic heavy 
showers and strong thunderstorms near the aforementioned trough 
and front through Fri night. Gusty winds with low visibility and 
frequent lightning will accompany the strong thunderstorms. After 
the low moves into Louisiana and the stationary front dissipates 
on Sat, the Atlantic Ridge should build westward across northern 
Florida into the Gulf, bringing moderate to locally fresh SE winds
and moderate seas back to the entire Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1033 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores
extends southwestward to the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to
strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south-central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
noted in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of 
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring in the SW Caribbean, while fast- 
moving showers are passing across the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the area will weaken and
shift east through Thu, allowing moderate to locally fresh trade
winds and moderate seas to dominate much of the the Caribbean by
Fri morning. The exception will be pulsing fresh to strong winds
off Venezuela and in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night
through Fri. Looking ahead, the Atlantic ridge will rebuild north
of the area by Sun, supporting fresh winds and building seas 
across the central and northwestern Caribbean by Sun night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the far northeast Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from a 1014 mb low pressure near 32N71W
to the NW Bahamas and southern Florida. Scattered showers are
present ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and 
rough to locally very rough seas are found behind the front. 
Fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate seas are evident 
ahead of the front to 64W and north of 29N. In the remainder of 
the tropical Atlantic, the basin is being dominated by ridging 
centered around a 1033 mb high located at 35N33W, leading to 
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to locally 
rough seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and
rough to very rough seas are active north of a stationary front 
extending southwestward from 31N71W to Miami, Florida. Fresh to 
strong SW winds are also active along the front between 30N and 
Bermuda. Winds and seas will diminish across the area through 
tomorrow night as the front dissipates and high pressure starts to
build over the western Atlantic into next week.

$$
Delgado