413 
AXNT20 KNHC 090403
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Aug 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb 
Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South 
America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the 
south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through the middle
of next week, with gale-force winds occurring tonight offshore of
Colombia, and near gale-force winds occurring inside the Gulf of 
Venezuela. The ridge N of the region will gradually shift 
southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain strong to near 
gale-force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela 
each night. Seas will build into the 12 to 13 ft range during the 
time of the gale-force winds tonight, and then peak at 10 to 11 
ft each of the next few nights.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 35W-36W from 07N to 19N, moving west near 
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is where the wave meets the 
monsoon trough. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
from 07.5N to 12.5N between 32W and 42W.

A tropical wave is along 43W from 12N to 21N, moving west at 10 
to 15 kt. Saharan Air surrounds this wave, and thus no 
significant convection currently accompanies the wave.

A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, and is along  
62W from 09N to 18N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 12N to 16N between 59W and 65W. Recent
satellite scatterometer data shows fresh to strong winds from 13N
to 21.5N on either side of the wave axis. 

Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west 
coast of Africa on Tuesday. Some development of this system will 
be possible during the middle to latter part of next week while it
moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium 
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16N and continues southwestward to near 11N22.5W
then on to 11N43W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N44W to 09N50W to
12N61W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N
to 17N E of 20W to the coast of Africa. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 21W and 31W.
Elsewhere, convective activity across the area is related to the 
tropical waves. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A low level trough over the eastern Gulf extends from the Florida
Big Bend area to near 26N85.5W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen east of this trough to interior portions of central Florida.  
A 1023 mb Bermuda High extends a weak ridge westward along 32N and
inland across the northern Gulf states, and drapped across the
low level trough. This weak pressure pattern across the Gulf is 
supporting mostly light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas across 
the basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring across the
western coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, ahead of a
thermal trough there. Diffluent flow aloft is supporting 
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the central
portions of the basin, and along the Mexican coast between Cabo
Rojo and Veracruz.
 
For the forecast, the surface trough extending southwestward from
the Florida Big Bend into the eastern Gulf will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms through tonight as the trough shifts NW
and inland. Similar activity is expected in the Bay of Campeche 
and SW Gulf with the passage of a diurnal surface trough. 
Otherwise, a surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High westward 
across the northern Gulf, and will dominate most of the basin 
through late Tue. This will support gentle to moderate E to SE 
winds north of 24N with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will 
occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of 
Campeche each evening and night as a diurnal surface trough 
migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect
for the waters north of Colombia. 

The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located just west
of Bermuda and a 1007 mb Colombian low continues to support fresh
to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean south of 16N and
between 68W and 80W. Seas are 6 to 11 ft across much of this 
area. Fresh to locally strong trade accompany a tropical wave
across the eastern Caribbean, to the N of 14N, where seas are 4 to
6 ft. Active weather near the wave is described above. Moderate 
to fresh trades are over the remainder of the E Caribbean while 
gentle to moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are 
2 to 5 ft with these winds. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
continue between Cuba and Jamaica, across the Cayman Islands and 
regional waters, including the Yucatan Channel, and are supported
by upper level troughing extending from the NE Caribbean west-
northwestward to the Yucatan channel.

For the forecast, the ridge N of the basin will gradually shift 
southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain strong to near 
gale-force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela 
each night. Winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds during the 
evenings and nights in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage 
through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades 
will prevail elsewhere. The Atlantic ridge will shift farther 
southward later next week, which may combine with an approaching
tropical wave to increase easterly trade winds again across the 
basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue off northeast 
Florida, N of 29N and extend northeastward to 74W, to the east of
a low level trough moving across the NE Gulf of America and
extending into SE Georgia. A broad ridge dominates the waters 
north of 25N across the basin, broken only by a trough reaching 
from 32N50W to 28N57W. Saharan air and suspended dust is evident 
east of this trough, north of 13N. The pattern is supporting 
moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N and west of 55W into
the E Caribbean, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. South of 22N and east 
of 55W gentle to moderate trades prevail to the Cabo Verde 
Islands, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds and 
5-8 ft seas extend from the Canary Islands southwestward to 20N. 
Elsewhere within the ridge, mostly gentle to moderate breezes and 
3-5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers across the NW 
zones off of Florida will diminish overnight as a surface trough,
currently over the eastern Gulf of America, continues to move W 
away from the area. Otherwise, a 1023 mb Bermuda High will shift 
southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh E winds will prevail N 
of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage through 
the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening and night. The 
Atlantic ridge will sink a bit farther southward later next week,
which may combine with an approaching tropical wave to produce 
stronger easterly winds. Of note, a tropical wave is expected to 
move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Gradual development 
will be possible thereafter and a tropical depression could form 
during the second half of next week while the system moves 
westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The 
latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance
of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. 

$$
Stripling