000
AXNT20 KNHC 140356
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will tighten 
between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic 
along 27N and the Colombian low on Friday. This will increase 
winds in the south central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale 
force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela on Friday night. 
Very rough seas to 13 ft will build near and downwind of these 
gales in the southwest Caribbean Fri night into early Sat. 

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have continued to
become less organized. This system is moving into a region of
increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the possibility of
development appears to be decreasing. Regardless of development,
interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the
progress of this system since gusty winds and areas of heavy rain
are possible across these islands Friday night and Saturday.

There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the 
next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W, from 02N to 20N, moving 
west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's
environment. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression 
could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves 
westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical development 
of this system in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for 
development in the next 7 days.

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical
wave with axis near 47W. 

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W, moving 
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted over northern Venezuela and Colombia as well
as adjacent waters S of 12N. from 15N to 20N between 68W and 72W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends 
southwestward to 09N55W. Aside from convection noted in the 
tropical waves and SPECIAL FEATURES section above, scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 13N between
33W-38W and W of 49W.  

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by
a 1018 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center. 
Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the ridge will change little through Sat before
weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to
moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh 
winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into 
the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a surface trough 
migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. 
Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning 
in effect for the south-central basin effective Fri night.

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and 
the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the 
central Caribbean waters. Moderate seas prevail over these waters.
Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate seas are over the 
eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to 
moderate seas, prevail over the remaining waters.

For the forecast, the tropical wave combined with the Bermuda 
High north of the region will enhance the trades over the central 
Caribbean through Sat. Peak winds should reach gale-force just 
north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night into Sat 
morning. Additionally, another strong tropical wave, Invest AL92,
should start impacting the Leeward Islands beginning tomorrow 
evening. Strong to near gale-force winds along with areas of heavy
rain are expected Fri night and Sat. These weather conditions 
will shift westward toward the central Caribbean and the Greater 
Antilles, including the Windward Passage from Sat night through 
Mon. Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward 
the W Caribbean. Note that if Invest AL92 forms into a tropical 
cyclone, the winds and waves expected may be higher than indicated
here.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
located over the central tropical Atlantic.

A surface trough extends over the SW N Atlantic from 30N63W to 
the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure 
dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, 
anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 27N55W. Light to gentle 
winds, and slight seas are in the vicinity of the high center, 
mainly N of 24N between 30W and 60W. Fresh to strong winds, and 
rough seas, generated by Invest AL92 are from 12N to 17N between 
41W and 50W. Fresh to strong winds are also found near the Canary 
Islands SE toward the coast of Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge combined with 
two tropical waves passing through the Caribbean Sea will cause 
fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night. 
Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the 
next few days. A weak cold front will slowly push across our 
northern border east of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift to northeast
but with little change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of 
28N.

$$
ERA