000
AXNT20 KNHC 241957
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 41.2W at 24/1500 UTC
or 860 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft are occurring within 
75 nm across the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 130 nm over the NE and NW and 70 nm SW
quadrants. Some additional strengthening is possible
through tonight. A gradual weakening trend is expected to 
commence on Friday. A generally westward motion with some 
decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay 
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): 
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could
become a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm later
today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward.
Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further
development over the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands
should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas
of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by
Friday. Heavy rain and flash flooding could also occur well to the
east along the coast of western Africa, particularly in western
portions of Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and southwest
portions of Mauritania. This system has a high chance of 
formation in the next 48 hours.

Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough 
currently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the 
Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea 
surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. 
An elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during
the next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical 
moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, 
supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There 
is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest
rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme 
southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, 
western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as 
well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently,
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms extends from the Gulf
of Honduras, north- northeastward across the Cayman Islands and 
into the southern coastal waters of Cuba, and across Andros Island
and the remainder of the NW Bahamas W of 73W. Heavy rainfall 
across these regions will create the possibility of life- 
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local 
weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather 
Prediction Center for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

See Special Features section above for information on a tropical
wave in the far eastern Atlantic along 20N that has potential for
tropical formation. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 46W, S of 14.5W,
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 10N to 13N between the wave axis and 51W. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, south of 14N 
into southern Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No
significant convection is depicted over waters in association 
with this wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 16N17W and extends
southward to 1007 low pressure near 12.3N21.1W then continues 
westward to 10.5N49W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N49W and continues
to to near 10N59.5W. Scattered showers prevail from 04.5N to 09N
between 27.5W and 36W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted 
from 09N to 13N west of 59W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal boundary extends from south Florida to NE Texas.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds along with seas 2 to 4 ft 
prevail in the wake of the front. Elsewhere, weak high pressure 
prevails ahead of the front supporting light to gentle NE to E
winds along with seas 1 to 3 ft. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned front is forecast to 
progress across the E Gulf tonight and Fri, then stall over the SE
Gulf this weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow 
the front through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun 
into early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean,
and expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of 
Central America into the weekend.

To the east, an upper level trough extends from the central 
Atlantic southwestward to northern Venezuela. This trough is
supporting scattered moderate convection south of 13N and east of
65W. 

At the surface, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends
a weak ridge north of the area, producing a weak pressure 
gradient across the Caribbean basin. Moderate to fresh trades 
prevail across most of the basin S of 15N and E of 80W. Seas in 
these winds are 4 to 7 ft. Over the eastern Caribbean moderate
winds prevail along and 3 to 5 ft in the moderate winds.
Elsewhere, outside of convection, light to gentle winds and 
slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will generate 
moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle 
to moderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W 
Caribbean for the next couple of days. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical 
Storm Fay. 

A deep-layered upper trough extending from the middle Atlantic
states of the U.S. S-SW across the eastern Gulf of America
continues to support scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms from the NW Caribbean across the NW and central 
Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters. Abundant low-level tropical 
moisture is across much of the Atlantic W of 68W, trapped to the 
south of an approaching front offshore of the SE U.S. and is 
interacting with the upper trough. A surface trough is analyzed 
within this convection across the NW Bahamas through the Straits 
of Florida. A weak frontal boundary extends from 31N75W to South
Florida. Moderate to fresh winds prevail behind the front, except
for strong winds offshore NE Florida along with seas to 9 ft.
Ahead of the front, north of 28N and between 71W and 73W moderate
S to SW winds prevail.
 
Another upper-level low is drifting westward near 25N53W. This 
feature is interacting with a surface trough resulting in an area 
of scattered moderate convection from 21N to 28N between 50W and 
56W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient 
continues across much of the Atlantic, as high pressure remains 
centered across the far NE Atlantic offshore of Europe. This 
pattern is sustaining gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and 
variable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 35W. However, swell
generated from Tropical Storm Fay is producing seas of 6 to 11 ft
N of 28N between 38W and 45W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary 
will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the frontal 
boundary. Fresh to strong winds and increasing seas will follow 
the front through Fri, before decreasing on Sat.

$$
KRV