000
AXNT20 KNHC 202305
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Two is centered near 28.7N 85.8W at 20/2100
UTC or 90 nm S of Panama City Florida, moving NW at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 9 ft in 
the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted north of 25N and east of 90W. A slow northwestward 
motion is expected through tonight and Tuesday morning, followed 
by a turn toward the west-northwest or west. On the forecast 
track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf 
coast during the next several days. Gradual strengthening is 
expected for the next day or two, and the depression is expected 
to become a tropical storm later this afternoon or tonight. Swells
generated by the depression are affecting portions of the Gulf 
coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the 
week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two 
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Cabo Verde 
Islands along 24W, from 06N to 19N, moving W at around 10 kt. 
No significant deep convection is presently occurring in
association with the wave.

A well-defined Central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, 
south of 23N, moving W at around 10 kt. Abundant dry Saharan air
encompasses this wave, precluding any convection. 

A Caribbean tropical wave extends southward from Jamaica along 
76W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of 14W west of 75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N35W. The 
ITCZ extends from 08N44W to 06N59W. Isolated moderate convection
is noted within 60 NM either side of the monsoon trough and the 
ITCZ. Scattered moderate convection is also noted south of 14W 
west of 75W in association with the monsoon trough from the 
eastern North Pacific.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Depression Two in the NE Gulf.

Away from the influence of Tropical Depression Two, 1016 mb high 
pressure centered near 25N92W dominates, leading to gentle winds
and slight seas. 

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Two is near 28.7N 85.8W at 5 PM EDT,
 and is moving northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 
kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 
mb. Two will strengthen to a tropical storm near 29.0N 86.2W Tue 
morning, move to 29.3N 86.7W Tue afternoon, 29.6N 87.5W Wed 
morning, 29.6N 88.5W Wed afternoon, inland to 29.6N 89.8W Thu 
morning, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 
29.5N 91.1W Thu afternoon. Two will change little in intensity as 
it moves to near 29.5N 93.9W Fri afternoon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and 
relatively lower pressure over South America is resulting in 
fresh easterly trade winds over most of the central and southwest
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, with locally strong 
winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas of 7 to
9 ft are noted in these waters. Moderate winds and seas are found
in the eastern Caribbean. in the NW basin, light to gentle winds 
and slight seas are prevalent. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted south of 14W west of 75W in association with the monsoon 
trough from the eastern North Pacific.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian
low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough 
seas across the south-central Caribbean through Thu. During the 
same period, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected 
in the Windward Passage, mainly at night. Pulsing winds reaching 
fresh speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed 
night. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will
prevail elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An broad upper-level low has two surface trough reflections,
from 26N49W to 30N47W and from 18N57W to 25N53W, respectively. 
These features are inducing isolated moderate convection from 
19N-29N between 47W-61W. NW of these trough axes, moderate to 
locally fresh NE winds are being generated in the tighter 
pressure gradient between the features and the 1021 mb 
subtropical ridge centered near 30N61W. Moderate to locally 
fresh trades dominate waters between 15N and 30N, E of 45W, 
otherwise winds in the basin are moderate or weaker. Moderate 
seas dominate the entire basin. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough located over the 
central Atlantic near 55W will move westward reaching near 60W by
Tue morning, near 67W by Wed morning, and near 75W by Thu 
morning. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected 
on either side of the trough axis. Fresh to locally strong trade 
winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to 
the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Moderate or 
weaker winds with moderate seas E of the Bahamas are forecast 
elsewhere through Fri.

$$ 
Landsea/Konarik