000
AXNT20 KNHC 282258
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Dec 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the 
NW Gulf waters early Mon. The front will move quickly 
southeastward, departing the basin Tue night. Fresh to near gale- 
force winds will follow the front, along with rough seas. Gale- 
force N winds and rough to very rough seas will develop off 
Tampico Mon. These winds and seas will reach the waters off 
Veracruz Mon night and persist until Tue night. Seas may peak 
around 20 ft off Veracruz Mon night into Tue. Conditions will 
improve from north to south by midweek.

Central Atlantic Gale and Significant Swell: A couple of cold 
fronts are moving through the north central waters. The first cold
front extends from 31N50W to 27N65W. The second cold front enters
the waters near 31N52W to 28N63W to 30N74W. These fronts will 
lead to gale-force winds in the central Atlantic starting tonight 
and prevailing through Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds 
currently follow these fronts, with fresh to strong SW winds along
and ahead of the fronts out to about 40W and N of 23N. Gusts to 
gale force are expected immediately ahead of the fronts as well as
behind them, generally N of 24N between 30W and 60W through the 
duration of the Gale Warning. Large N swell from both fronts is 
leading to very rough seas greater over the forecast waters N of 
23N between 37W and 68W. The large area of very rough seas will 
shift eastward across the waters N of 22N. Seas will peak at 
around 20 ft along and N of 30N between 45W and 55W Mon afternoon
through Tue morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N15W and continues 
to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 06N57W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N 
and E of 20W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above on an upcoming 
Gale Warning.

A surface trough is over the SW Gulf, while the remainder of the
Gulf is dominated by a 1021 mb high centered over the NE Gulf. 
Light to gentle winds are over the E Gulf, with moderate to fresh
winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are slight over the NE Gulf, and
moderate elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a cold front is slated to move into the 
northern Gulf tonight, and gale force winds and rough seas are 
expected in the wake of the front off the coast of Texas and 
Louisiana by early Mon morning, and offshore of Tampico and 
Veracruz by Mon afternoon and night. Prolonged gale force winds 
and significant very rough seas will persist over the western Bay 
of Campeche through late Tue night. Widespread strong to near-gale
force winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere behind the 
front. Winds and seas will diminish from north to south through 
midweek. Looking ahead, high pressure will build over the basin 
following the front, supporting moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas through late this week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trades and rough seas prevail in the central to 
SW Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas offshore 
NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail 
across much of the remaining basin. Pockets of enhanced moisture 
in the trade wind flow are leading to scattered showers in the 
central to NW Caribbean where a surface trough is also present, as
well as in the SE Caribbean near the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas are 
expected over the central Caribbean through the middle of this 
week as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between the 
Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Winds may reach 
near-gale force offshore of northern Colombia tonight and again 
Mon night. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate
seas are expected over the rest of the basin through midweek. 
Elsewhere, a long period N to NW swell will support rough seas 
over the Atlantic waters this week. Looking ahead, a cold front 
will move into the northwestern basin late Tue into Wed, and 
weaken as it moves southeastward and dissipates on Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on gale force 
winds and the ongoing significant swell in the central Atlantic.

A couple of cold fronts are moving through the north central 
waters. The first cold front extends from 31N50W to 27N65W. The 
second cold front enters the waters near 31N52W to 28N63W to 
30N74W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 31N47W to 27N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough. Aside 
from the gales and significant swell mentioned above, rough seas 
cover the waters north of 18N between 32W-74W.

Farther east, a frontal remnant trough interacting with an upper 
level trough along 30W is leading to scattered showers E of 34W 
and N of 28N. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds and rough seas are 
noted near this feature. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing
moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail, with locally 
rough seas and fresh to strong trades analyzed S of 10N between 
35W and 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong W to NW winds and 
very rough seas will continue over the central tropical Atlantic, 
north of 22N and east of 65W, through Mon morning as a strong 
storm system and a series of cold fronts move over the region. 
Locally near-gale force winds will be possible north of 28N and 
east of 60W through late tonight. Widespread rough seas associated
with this storm system will prevail east of 75W through tonight 
before briefly subsiding from west to east early this week. 
Farther west, fresh to strong W to SW winds will develop offshore
of Florida on Mon ahead of a cold front moving through the 
southern U.S. The front is slated to move offshore by late Mon, 
supporting fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas in the 
wake of the front. These winds and seas will expand eastward 
toward the central Atlantic through midweek as the front moves 
eastward. Another cold front is expected to enter the northwest 
tropical Atlantic late this week, supporting increasing winds and 
building seas near and behind the front. 

$$
ERA