167 
AXNT20 KNHC 130600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Oct 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Invest AL97: A tropical wave is located well to the southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands extending from 04N to 16N with axis near 
39W. The wave is moving west at 15 kt and has a 1006 mb low 
pressure near 12N39W associated with it, which is generating
numerous moderate to strong convection from 12N to 16N between 35W
and 39W, and scattered moderate convection elsewhere from 07N to
18N between 32W and 42W. Environmental conditions are forecast 
to become more favorable for further development of this system 
during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form by the middle part of this week while it moves to the west-
northwest then northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the central 
tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of tropical 
formation within the next 48 hrs. Regardless of development, a 
gale warning has been issued per recent scatterometer data and the
latest model guidance.  

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the gale warning. Also read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Satellite and satellite derived data as well as model diagnostic
data indicate the presence of a tropical wave just south of the
Cape Verde Islands. The wave extends from 03N to 14N with axis
near 24W, moving west at approximately 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection extends from 04N to 14N between 22W and 30W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 17N16W to 10N30W to 1006 mb low pressure near 12N37W to
08N45W. The ITCZ extends from 08N45W to 10N61W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 22W and 28W. 
Additional convection is described in Special Features section 
associated with Invest AL97.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal system off the Carolinas and low pressure over Mexico is
keeping a weak pressure gradient across the Gulf, which continue
to support mainly light to gentle winds and slight to locally
moderate seas. Locally moderate NE to E winds are also across the
SE and central basin due to the presence of a dissipating 
stationary front that extends from the Florida Straits to 23N90W 
to 25N93W.  

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the basin through late 
this week, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas. Winds are expected to increase to fresh speeds over
the eastern Gulf Thu night through Fri night as the pressure 
gradient tightens some across the area. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low pressure to the north and northwest of the basin continue to
support a weak pressure gradient basin-wide, thus light to gentle
winds over the western and central Caribbean along with slight
seas. A slightly tighter pressure gradient over the eastern basin
due to the ridge in the central subtropical waters is supporting
moderate trades across the eastern basin. Otherwise, upper level
divergence and moisture inflow from the east Pacific monsoon is
generating heavy showers and tstms over eastern Cuba and its
adjacent waters, in the eastern Gulf of Honduras and Haiti
adjacent waters.

For the forecast, a moist weather pattern will maintain scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the western and central
Caribbean during the next few days. High pressure over the 
central Atlantic will support moderate to locally fresh trade 
winds and moderate seas across the eastern Caribbean through mid 
week. Meanwhile, a weak pressure pattern will maintain moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas elsewhere through the 
forecast period. A weak cyclonic circulation may develop over the 
NW Caribbean toward midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a  
Gale Warning associated with Invest 97W.

A stationary front extends from a non-tropical low off the 
Carolinas SW across the northern Bahamas and into the SE Gulf of 
America. Diffluent flow aloft ahead of the front along with
abundant moisture inflow from the eastern Pacific monsoon trough
are fueling heavy showers and tstms with potential gusty winds
ahead of the front, across the central Bahamas and the Great
Bahamas Bank. Farther east, a surface trough continues to fuel
heavy showers and tstms from 27N to 30N between 57W and 62W. A
cold front extends from 31N28W to 27N35W where it transitions to a
dissipating stationary front that continues to 27N46W. Scattered
showers are in the vicinity of this trough. Otherwise, a weak
surface ridge dominates the remainder subtropical waters, which is
supporting moderate or weaker winds. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the remnants of former cyclone 
Jerry will continue to move away from the regional waters. Fresh 
to near gale-force winds will continue to affect the waters north
of 28N and between 58W and 62W through early Sun. The stationary
front will be reinforced on Mon, and a merged front will extend 
from 31N71W to the central Bahamas and western Cuba as a cold 
front by Mon evening, and from 31N66W to the central Bahamas and 
central Cuba by Tue evening. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas 
are expected on either side of the front across the waters N of 
27N by late Tue, and shift eastward through late in the week. 

$$
Ramos