148 
AXNT20 KNHC 220357
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri May 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0355 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic is analyzed along 38W, south of 10N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is present near 
the trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 76W, south of
15N, moving westward near 10 kt. The southern portion of the wave
is enhancing the storm activity over Colombia.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 04N24W. The
ITCZ extends from 04N24W to 01N37W and then from 01N40W to 
01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
observed south of 07N and east of 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad subtropical ridge centered east of Bermuda extends into
the Gulf waters, supporting fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas 
of 2-4 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche and the Florida Straits.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the
eastern Gulf and off the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western
Atlantic to the northern Gulf will change little during the 
forecast period. The pressure gradient between it and relatively 
lower pressures over Texas and northern Mexico will generally 
maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow across 
the basin through the weekend, with the exception of fresh to 
strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and 
into the night time hours due to local effects associated with a 
thermal trough. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An extensive ridge located north of the islands continues to
sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft in
the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the
eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A few
showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting portions of Cuba,
Hispaniola and nearby waters. In the remainder of the basin,
pockets of low-level moisture generate light, fast-moving showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America
will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central portion
of the Caribbean into early next week. These trades will continue
to bring rough seas to that portion of the basin. Fresh to strong
trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. 
Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through the forecast 
period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergence aloft results in a few showers between the Bahamas and
Bermuda. The subtropical ridge centered east of Bermuda forces
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas over 
much of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass show that winds are pulsing to strong force off
northern Hispaniola..

A dissipating stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 
31N25W and continues southwestward to 24N45W to 24N58W. The rest 
of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad 
subtropical ridge anchored by the eastern extension of the 1026 
mb high pressure east of Bermuda. A moderate pressure gradient 
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western 
Africa results in moderate to fresh to locally strong northerly 
winds from 12N to 24N and east of 27W. Seas are 5-8 ft in these 
waters. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are 
noted south of 23N and west of 27W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a large mid to upper-level low
located ENE of the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly W of 70W. Some of this 
activity may contain strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain 
reducing visibility. The low is forecast to lift N of the area by 
early on Fri evening. East winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds
north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and evenings going into 
early next week. Otherwise, high pressure centered just north of 
the area will maintain rather quite marine conditions through the 
period. 

$$
Delgado