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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 181051

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
551 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC. 


The monsoon trough passes from N Liberia near 07N11W to 04N20W. 
The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 03N30W to 02N42W. A surface 
trough is along 43W from 10N southward. The ITCZ resumes from 
02N45W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Isolated moderate 
convection is from 01N-05N between 22W-34W, and from 02S-06N
between 40W-48W. 


A 1023 mb high centered over S Louisiana near 30N91W. 10-15 kt
anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. Broken clouds 
cover much of the basin.

A developing intense low pressure system will move E-NE from 
Texas to the Carolinas Wed through Thu night, dragging a strong 
cold front across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions are expected 
to rapidly deteriorate across the region Thu afternoon as the low 
pressure deepens. Gale force winds are likely north of 25N across 
the central and northern Gulf Thu night and Fri. Seas will build 
to a maximum of around 20 ft on Fri east of 90W.


A 1015 mb surface low is centered off the coast of Honduras near 
17N85W. A stationary front extends north from the low to 22N77W 
then into the west Atlantic. Scattered showers are within 90 nm 
west of the front. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh 
trades across the Caribbean. However, strong to near-gale winds 
will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia. Gentle winds are 
between eastern Cuba and Jamaica.

A weakening stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to 
16N85W will dissipate later today, then drift westward into the 
Yucatan peninsula tonight as a surface trough. Fresh to strong 
winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through 
Sat, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia each 
night. A cold front associated with an intense low pressure system
north of the area will enter the NW Caribbean Thu night. 


A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N57W to
28N63W. The front continues as stationary from 28N63W to eastern 
Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is within 90 nm east of the cold front mainly north of 28N. 
Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front. 
Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1024 mb 
high centered near 26N37W.

The west Atlantic front will push eastward today to extend from 
31N50W to Turks and Caicos by this evening. The western portion 
of the front will slowly drift northward Wed and Thu as an intense
low pressure system develops over the southeast U.S. Gale force 
winds are likely north of 27N east of Florida Thu night through 
Fri night. Maximum seas will build to around 20 ft by Fri night 
west of 70W.

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