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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 151742

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1719 UTC.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W S of 14N. Scattered
showers are seen within 100 nm east of this feature.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W S of 12N. Scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms are 50 nm within the vicinity
of this wave from 03N-08N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W S of 12N. Scattered
showers are within the vicinity of this wave from 07N-11N between

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is beginning to approach the
Caribbean as it passes over the Lesser Antilles along an axis of
60W S of 17N. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near 
this wave from 11N-16N between 60W-64W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W S of 17N. No convection
is occurring near this feature.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 07N24W. The ITCZ continues from 07N24W to 06N34W, then 
continues W of a tropical wave near 05N35W toward the coast of 
Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen moving 
along the monsoon trough from 05N-10N between 20W-23W. There are 
also some showers along the ITCZ from 05N-07N between 35W-38W. 


An upper level trough is currently moving across northern Mexico,
bringing SW upper level winds across the basin. A 1010 mb low is 
seen in the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W and convection is firing 
along this low and across the central Bay of Campeche, from 19N- 
25N between 91W-95W. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen within 
50 nm of the Louisiana coastline. A trough is analyzed from 26N82W
to 30N87W. Thunderstorms are beginning to ignite along this 
feature off the Florida coastline, from 25N-28N. A recent 
scatterometer pass showers light to gentle easterly winds in the 
eastern Gulf with moderate to fresh winds in the western Gulf. 

Moderate to locally fresh southeast to south winds associated 
with Atlantic high pressure will prevail across the basin through 


An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic into the northern
Caribbean. Meanwhile, the central and eastern Caribbean is under 
an upper level ridge. Most of the basin remains tranquil in terms 
of convection due to subsidence from the ridge. However, there 
are some isolated thunderstorms moving into the eastern Caribbean 
from 12N- 15N between 62W-67W. Isolated thunderstorms are also 
observed across Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Western Cuba 
also has scattered moderate convection. Gentle to moderate trades 
are seen in the eastern Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds in
the central basin. Fresh to strong winds are north of Colombia. 
Light to gentle trades are in the northern basin.

High pressure north of the area will support strong trade winds 
in the south-central Caribbean this weekend. High pressure will 
strengthen early next week, and winds will increase to near gale 
force off Colombia and Venezuela. Seas will build up to 13 or 14 
ft. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of 
Honduras at night.


A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N70W and
stretches west to 30N76W. The front then stalls from 30N76W to the
coast of Florida near 30N81W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 70 nm of the front east of 76W. There is also
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection across the east
coast of Florida and the Bahamas from 23N-28N between 76W-80W. 

In the central Atlantic, a cold front enters the waters near
31N26W to 25N40W. The tail-end of the front stalls from 25N40W to
26N50W. A pre-frontal trough is seen from 30N24W to 24N33W.
Cloudiness with some showers are seen near both of these features.
Another surface trough is seen from 31N47W to 28N57W with some
clouds and light showers associated with it. High pressure
dominates the rest of the basin with a 1023 mb high near 29N62W
and a 1021 mb high near 24N50W. Light to gentle winds are seen in
the Atlantic north of 16N with gentle to moderate winds south of 

A stationary front in the western Atlantic will lift northward 
and be north of the area tonight. A ridge will dominate the SW N 
Atlantic through Wednesday as high pressure builds across the 
central Atlantic. 

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