641 
AXNT20 KNHC 061648
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jun 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1647 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa 
earlier this morning has it axis along 18.5W, south of 15N. This 
wave is moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted from 02N to 06N between 15W and 20W. 

A second tropical wave is near 31W, south of 13N moving W at 15 
to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave 
meets the monsoon trough from 02N to 07N between 25W and 34W.

Another tropical wave is along 56W, south of 13.5N, moving 
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is evident from 04N to 10N between 48W and 57W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean Sea along 65W, 
south of 14.5N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave appears 
to enhance convection over portions of Venezuela.

Another tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean Sea.
Its axis is along 81W, south of 18.5N into the EPAC region. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed near 
the southern portion of the wave axis and along the eastern end of
the EPAC monsoon trough. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of western
Africa near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 03N33W. The 
ITCZ extends from 03N33W to the coast of Brazil near 02N49.5W 
where scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N W of
42W. Additional convection across the area is related to the 
above mentioned tropical waves. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over the western Atlantic and the SE of the United
States extends a ridge across the Gulf waters supporting gentle 
to moderate SE winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh 
winds N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are slight to 
moderate within these wind speeds. A surface trough over the
western part of the basin is supporting scattered moderate
convection south of 26N and west of 91W. Another area of scattered
moderate convection is depicted north of 28N between 86W and 89W. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
region supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the 
eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western 
Gulf through at least early next week. The exception will be off 
the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support 
moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the 
evenings. Slight to moderate seas will prevail with these winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. 
Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for more details. 

High pressure north of the area combined with lower pressures
across South America supports moderate to locally fresh trade 
winds and moderate seas across the majority of the basin, with the
exception of the SW Caribbean where light to gentle winds are 
noted. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
occurring just south of the Hispaniola, Jamaica, and in the SW 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, patches of low level clouds, embedded in the
trade wind flow, are noted producing isolated to scattered 
passing showers.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and 
moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean today as the 
Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. 
Winds will begin to increase again over the central Caribbean late
tonight into Sun, and over the NW part of the basin Sun night 
into Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic 
ridge and a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern 
Pacific offshore of Central America. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the W coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical 
Waves section for more details. 

A frontal boundary extends from 31N61W to near 25N74W. Ahead of
the front, a surface trough extends from 27N66W to eastern Cuba. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along these two features.
High pressure over the southeastern United States and the western
Atlantic follows this frontal boundary. The remainder of the 
Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, 
anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure situated SW of the Azores 
34N37W. Under the influence of this feature, a gentle to moderate 
E to SE flow is seen N of 20N E of front to about 43W. Fresh to 
strong N to NE winds and rough seas are found north of 18N and 
east of 43W, including the Canary Islands. The strongest winds are
between the islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas 
are elsewhere S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser 
Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary will
begin to weaken today and dissipate early on Sun. A surface 
trough will linger and drift westward through Mon night. A cold 
front will reach from near 31N59W by late Tue, from near 30N55W to
26N63W and stationary to 27N69W, then shift E of the area Thu as 
a high center N of the area slides eastward along 33N. This 
weather pattern will generally support gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas into next week, except for moderate to fresh 
trades S of 22N between Hispaniola and Cuba beginning late Wed.$$ 
KRV