724 
AXNT20 KNHC 280441
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Oct 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell N of Bahamas: NE swell from earlier gales in the
area continue to lead to very rough seas for waters N of 26N and W
of 71W. Peak seas are near 18 ft offshore east-central Florida.
Although gales have ended, the pressure gradient between a strong
ridge over the eastern U.S. and low pressure centered in the
Bahamas will continue to produce strong NE to E winds into Thu,
keep seas rough to very rough. Seas of 12 ft or greater are likely
to persist for waters offshore NE Florida through at least
tonight. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous 
marine conditions and take the necessary precautions to avoid 
these affected areas. 

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 10N20W. The ITCZ
stretches from 10N20W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N to 12N between 28W and 54W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over the eastern United States extends a ridge 
across the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and low pres over the Bahamas is supporting moderate to fresh 
winds E of 90W. Moderate to rough seas are over these waters. 
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are found west of 90W.


For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a strong ridge
over the eastern United States and a complex weather system over
the Bahamas will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E 
winds and rough seas over the E Gulf into late this week. Winds 
and seas will gradually diminish into the weekend. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through 
the forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from low pres over the Bahamas across 
central Cuba to around 15N80W. Moderate to locally fresh 
northerly winds and moderate seas are found N of 16N and W of the 
trough. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are found over
the eastern Caribbean east of 70W. Light to gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the surface trough extends southward across 
central Cuba and into the Caribbean along 80W from low pressure 
near Andros Island in the Bahamas. The trough will remain nearly 
stationary. Ample tropical moisture and upper-level divergence 
support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the 
central Caribbean, especially over Hispaniola. The surface trough 
will gradually weaken through the middle of the week. Winds and 
seas will diminish in the W Caribbean Wed. Otherwise, moderate to 
locally fresh trade winds in the E Caribbean will continue over 
the next few days, gradually extending westward this week and into
the upcoming weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
significant swell causing very rough seas north of the Bahamas.

Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 26N
between 67W and 72W in association with a deep-layer trough and
abundant tropical moisture. This activity will continue to provide
periods of heavy rain to Hispaniola over the next couple of days. 

A stationary front extends from 31N55W to a 1010 mb low pressure
over the Bahamas near 25N77W. N of this boundary, strong NE to E
winds and very rough seas prevail, to the south and seas, mainly
moderate SE winds with moderate to locally rough seas are present.
To the east, another stationary front extends from 31N34W to
29N40W. Moderate W winds and moderate seas are noted N and W of
this front. In NE waters, rough seas are present N of 26N and E of
40W. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between a
1032 mb high pressure system over New England and a stationary 
front extending from near 31N55W to a 1010 mb low in the NW 
Bahamas supports fresh to near gale-force NE winds and rough to 
very rough seas north of the front and west of the low. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring north of the 
front and south of the front between 66W and 73W. Strong NE to E 
winds and rough to very rough seas will persist north of 28N and 
west of 65W through Thu as the low pressure moves southwestward 
and the front weakens. Looking ahead, weak low pressure will 
develop southwest of Bermuda by Fri, then lift to the northeast 
and reinforce the frontal boundary over the waters between the 
central Bahamas and Bermuda. Expect fresh to strong NE-E winds and
seas to 10 ft north of the front through Sun. 

$$
Konarik