184 
AXNT20 KNHC 310427
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Dec 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong high pressure over Texas
supports strong to gale-force NW-N winds and rough to very rough
seas in the Bay of Campeche. The strongest winds and highest seas
are found off Veracruz. Winds will subside overnight into Wed, 
but rough seas will continue into Wed evening.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front extending from a
storm-force low north of the area, enters the discussion waters 
near 31N27W and extends to 19N43W, where it becomes a stationary 
front that extends west to N of the Leeward Islands. Large N 
swell generated from this system is producing very rough seas 
greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters north of 21N between 
30W and 52W. These very rough seas will shift eastward while 
gradually subsiding from south to north through late week. Rough 
seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 14N between 25W and 
65W. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast o
Guinea-Bissau near 08N13W and continues to 07N18W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N18W to 04N33W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 03N to 08N and between 20W and 41W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above regarding a gale 
warning in the SW Gulf of America.

A cold and dry continental airmass dominates the Gulf of America
behind a frontal boundary that currently extends from the W
Atlantic to the NW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between this
strong ridge over the central United States and the aforementioned
front results in fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to 
rough seas over much of the basin. 

For the forecast, gale force N to NW winds and very rough seas
will prevail in the western Bay of Campeche through late tonight.
Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas over the central and 
southern basin will diminish from north to south through Wed 
morning. High pressure will build over the basin on Wed, with 
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas region-wide through Thu. 
Fresh W to SW winds may develop over the northern Gulf by late 
week, ahead of a low pressure system moving across the southern 
United States.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from Playa Giron, Cuba to Tulum, Mexico. A
few showers are seen near the front. Fresh to strong N winds and
rough seas are occurring behind the front. The subtropical ridge
supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft
in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
breezes and moderate seas are found in the north-central and SE
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will pulse
in the south-central Caribbean into early Thu. A cold front over 
the northwestern Caribbean will weaken and eventually dissipate 
over the northwestern basin by late week. Fresh to locally strong 
N winds and rough seas will prevail in the wake of the front, from
the Yucatan Channel through the northwestern basin through Wed. 
Over the Atlantic waters, rough seas in N swell will subside by 
the end of the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on  
significant swell causing very rough seas in the central 
Atlantic.

Outside of the area in the Special Features section, a cold front
extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Caibarien, Cuba. 
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to
locally strong winds are occurring north of 27N and between 51W
and 71W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. The rest of the SW North
Atlantic is under broad ridging that sustains moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas. The pressure gradient between the 
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics 
results in moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft 
south of 15N and west of 25W. Elsewhere in the central and 
eastern Atlantic, moderate or lighter winds and moderate to 
locally rough seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N to NW swell east of
60W will slowly  subside from west to east by early Wed. A cold 
front extending from SE of Bermuda to central Cuba will progress 
eastward through midweek. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and 
rough seas will prevail ahead of the front, generally north of 
26N, through Thu. Moderate to fresh NW winds and rough seas in NW 
swell are expected in the wake of the front into Wed. Fresh to 
locally strong W winds and rough seas may develop off the coast of
northern Florida on Thu as a cold front passes north of the 
waters. Otherwise, weak high pressure will build over the western 
tropical Atlantic, with moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
over the rest of the waters for late week. 

$$
Delgado