000
AXNT20 KNHC 202046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Jan 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1032 mb 
high pressure over the central Atlantic and the Colombian low is 
supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore 
Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the 
middle of the week, before the high pressure weakens and shifts 
eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia 
to gale force at night through Thu morning. Rough seas are 
forecast with these winds. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern 
Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are 
expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts
with a shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of 
Honduras. Periods of heavy rainfall will continue through early 
Wed in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Honduras, where totals in
excess of 12 inches will be likely. 

Please consult products from your local meteorological services 
for additional information. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 08N12W and continues
southwestward to 03N22W. The ITCZ extends from 03N22W to 
01.5S43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
depicted from 01N to 07W, and east of 14W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front is over the far NE waters. Otherwise, high
pressure dominates the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and
moderate seas, prevail across the discussion waters. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE of the United 
States supports fresh to locally strong northerly winds and 
moderate to rough seas across most of the eastern Gulf, including 
the Straits of Florida. These marine conditions will persist 
through Wed. The next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf 
Fri night into Sat followed by fresh to strong winds and building 
seas. Reinforcing high pressure, in the wake of the front, may 
bring gale conditions first near Tampico, then near Veracruz on 
Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a Gale 
Warning offshore Colombia.

A shearline extends from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras. Fresh
to strong northerly winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail W
of the shearline. Outside of the south- central Caribbean, 
moderate to fresh easterly winds,and moderate to rough seas, 
prevail across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, gale force NE winds will continue to pulse each
night and early morning hours over the waters offshore Colombia 
through Thu morning. Strong high pressure over the SE of the 
United States will continue to promote fresh to strong NE winds 
and moderate to rough seas across the NW Caribbean through Wed. 
These winds are transporting abundant tropical moisture into 
northern Honduras supporting periods of locally heavy rainfall 
through mid- week. An area of moisture will move across the 
Leeward Islands late on Wed, and over Puerto Rico on Thu, likely 
reaching Hispaniola on Fri. This is forecast to increase the 
likelihood of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the islands 
and surrounding waters.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from SE of Bermuda to north of the central 
Bahamas where it transition to a stationary front to eastern 
Cuba. Fresh to strong winds prevail S of 27N and W of the front.
Elsewhere W of the front, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-6
ft, prevail. The remainder of the Atlantic discussion waters are
dominated by high pressure, with fresh to strong winds, and seas
of 7-11 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will 
promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas east of 65W 
through Thu. A nearly stationary front extends from 31N63W to 
eastern Cuba. This feature will lift N and gradually dissipate 
through Thu. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure 
over the SE of the United States and the front will continue to 
support fresh to strong NE winds over the western Atlantic W of 
the front, in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits of 
Florida through Wed. 

$$
AL