000
AXNT20 KNHC 191654
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jun 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1654 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned based on
wave diagnostic tools. The wave axis is now near 32W from 01N to 
16N. Scattered showers are near the wave from 00N to 10N between 
30W and 40W. 

The central Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned based on
wave diagnostic tools. The wave axis is now near 52W from 02N to 
18N. Isolated showers are depicted from 08N to 12.5N between 48W
and 56.5W. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 67.5W south
of 18N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are from 12N to 15N along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic off the coast of 
Africa near 18N16W and continues south-southwestward to 06N30W 
and 06N41W. The ITCZ extends from 06N41W to 06N50W. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is just offshore the coast of Africa
from 02N to 14N and reaches west to near 23N. This convection is 
in advance of the next tropical wave. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A high pressure ridge extends westward to 87W from a subtropical 
high located in the Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures across Mexico supports moderate to fresh
SE to S winds across much of the Gulf, except for gentle
southerly winds over the E Gulf. Seas are in the range of 4 to 7 
ft over most of the Gulf, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in 
spots over the NW Gulf and seas 1 to 3 ft over the SE Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure extends from the 
Atlantic westward across Florida to the central Gulf. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures
over Texas and northeastern Mexico will generally support mostly 
fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf, and 
gentle to moderate winds over the eastern Gulf today. The fresh 
winds over the western and central Gulf will diminish to gentle to
moderate speeds early next week. Winds over the eastern Gulf will
become light to gentle tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between broad central Atlantic high pressure 
and lower pressures in northern South America is generally sustaining
fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and 
the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh
trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the eastern and 
northwestern sections. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 
5 ft are across the remainder of the Caribbean.

An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is noted in the 
southwestern Caribbean from 10N to 14N between 76W and 83W. This 
activity is related to the eastern extension of the East Pacific 
monsoon trough that protrudes eastward across Costa Rica and to 
the northwest part of Colombia. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are elsewhere from 14N to 21N between 74W to 82W. 

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the area 
into next week. The pressure gradient between the area of high 
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade 
winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through 
the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the 
coast of Colombia. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to 
rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through 
Mon, pulsing briefly to near gale- force tonight. Moderate to 
fresh winds are expected over much of the remainder of the 
Caribbean through Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A rather ill-defined trough extends from 31N28W to 26N36W. No 
significant convection is present near the trough. High pressure 
of 1024 mb is centered near 28.5N59W. High pressure covers the 
waters north of about 21N. The related pressure gradient is 
generally allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds along with 
moderate seas to exist across much of the Atlantic south about 21N
as well as between the Bahamas and Cuba. Light to gentle 
anticyclonic winds are north of 21N east of 72W while fresh 
southwest winds are over the waters east of northern Florida to 
near 75W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 21N. Moderate to locally 
fresh trades prevail over the tropical Atlantic along with seas 5 
to 7 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure across the basin will
shift slightly eastward tonight as a cold front moves across the 
southeastern U.S. The front will move offshore northeast Florida 
during the weekend, then stall and weaken. Fresh to strong 
southwest winds are expected north of 30N and W of 72W through 
tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse to strong south of 22N
into early next week. 

$$ KRV