000
AXNT20 KNHC 152304
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Feb 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09.5N13.5W and extends to
04N18.5W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18.5W through 00N29W to the
coast of Brazil at 01N46.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is seen E of 20W from the Equator to the 
African coast S of 07.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
along the ITCZ, S of 04N between 20W and 49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front continues to move eastward across the NE Gulf, analyzed
from near Mexico Beach, FL to near 27.5N90W to the Mexican coast N
of Veracruz along 20N at 1800 UTC, with a pre-frontal squall line
occurring just ahead of the front and into the Florida Big Bend. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection along and ahead of the
squall line is producing SW winds of near-gale to gale-force 
strength, as confirmed by midday satellite scatterometer data,
with fresh to strong SW winds elsewhere N of 25N, ahead of the 
front to the Florida coast. Seas are 5 to 9 ft in this area. The
front continues across the Florida Panhandle and spirals into a
1002 mb low center across eastern Mississippi. W of the front,
fresh NW to W winds prevail, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. In the far 
SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche mainly offshore Veracruz, NW winds are
fresh to strong due to enhanced northerly flow behind the cold 
front and a strengthening pressure gradient with high pressure 
building over northern Mexico. Seas there are 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE of the area by Mon 
afternoon, with winds and seas further decreasing. Gale force SW 
winds over the NE Gulf east of the front will diminish below gale 
force by this evening, then further diminish through the night. 
High pres will build in the wake of the front. Gentle to moderate 
winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail by midweek. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A frontal remnant trough extends across Puerto Rico southwestward
into the east-central Caribbean along 70W, while another surface 
trough also extends from the Windward Passage southward into the 
central basin along 77W. In between these features, fresh to 
strong NE to E winds prevail N of 15N, where seas are 6-8 ft.
Fresh to strong winds also continue near the coast of Colombia to
15N, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere across the basin, 1022 mb
high pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas is
supporting moderate to locally fresh E trades and moderate seas, E
of 80W, and gentle to moderate SE winds across the NW basin.

For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the 
coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Elsewhere, 
moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail through 
the middle of next week, except for light to gentle winds over the
NW Caribbean that are expected to strengthen by the end of the 
week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
through 31N45W to 24N49W then become stationary to the Virgin
Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. To the west, a frontal remnant 
trough is analyzed along 25N, to the S of a 1022 mb high near 
30N71W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
near the cold front N of 24N between 42W and 47W. Moderate to 
fresh N to NE winds follow the front to 65W. Anticyclonic winds
then become fresh easterly winds N of Hispaniola, then fresh to
strong SE to S winds through the Bahamas and across the waters E
of Florida to 75W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within these winds, except 
4 ft or less in the lee of the central Bahamas. Light to gentle 
winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail north of the trough due to high 
pressure in the region.

E of the cold front to 35W and N of 26N, fresh to strong S to SW
winds prevail, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. E of 35W and N of 10N, 
fresh to strong trades and rough seas prevail due to an enhanced 
pressure difference between a 1034 mb high near 36N18W and lower 
pressures in the deep tropics. Moderate to fresh trades and 
moderate seas prevail elsewhere S of 20N to the Lesser Antilles. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure across the discussion
waters will shift eastward enabling a cold front to move off the 
SE coast of the U.S. on Monday. Strong S to SW winds will prevail
offshore north and central Florida this evening and tonight in 
advance of the front. The front will shift eastward over the 
forecast waters, moving east of the area by the middle of the 
week. Fresh to near gale winds will precede the front N of 29N 
tonight into Mon, with fresh to strong winds and building seas 
elsewhere in the vicinity of the front N of 28N. These winds will 
diminish by the middle of the week, with rough seas lingering E of
60W through Thu. 

$$
Stripling