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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 211754

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.


...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central 
Caribbean through Thursday night and increase to near gale-force 
near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional information,
please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO 
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.


The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W 
and extends to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 
00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 02N-07N between 07W-17W, and 280 nm north 
and south of the ITCZ W of 26W to the coast of Brazil.


A broken to overcast layer of low-level stratocumulus clouds 
prevails over most of the Gulf of Mexico, due to a cold airmass 
over warm waters. High pressure ridging has moved into the Gulf
with axis along 90W.

Strong high pressure ridging S over the Gulf from the central 
United States will shift E toward Cape Hatteras as low pressure 
deepens over the southern Plains. This will allow strong SE to S 
return flow to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico by Tue 
morning and the remainder of the basin by Tue night. Another 
strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf on Wed and 
produce gale force NW to N winds over the far western Gulf from S 
Texas to the coast of Mexico near Veracruz. This front will reach 
from near the NE Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula early Thu, then 
weaken as it exits the SE Gulf Thu night. 


A strong cold front extends from SE Cuba near 19N77W to E 
Honduras near 15N83W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the 
cold front. Fresh to strong NW to N winds cover the NW Caribbean 
behind the front to the Yucatan Channel. No significant convection
is present over the remainder of the Caribbean. Tradewinds are 
fresh to strong across a large area of the south central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the south-central 
Caribbean through Wed night, and increase to at or near gale force
along the coast of Colombia each night through Thu night. Moderate
to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold
front extends across the NW Caribbean from SE Cuba to NE Honduras
near 15.5N84W. The front will stall today and begin to weaken 
then drift north from Cuba westward Tue morning and night. Strong 
high pres building over the western Atlc will increase the 
pressure gradient over the basin Tue through Fri. This will 
result in strong trades over most of the eastern and central 
Caribbean. Strong offshore gap winds will affect the lee of Cuba, 
and also blow through the Mona and Windward passages, especially 
on Wed and Thu. 


A strong cold front in the western Atlantic extends from 31N65W 
to NE Cuba near 21N75W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
180 nm E of the front N of 25N. Broken to overcast low-level 
stratocumulus clouds prevails over the W Atlantic W of front to 
Florida Peninsula. 20-30 kt winds are present on both sides of 
the front. A surface trough extends from 31N50W to 28N48W. Further
south, another surface trough is present from 26N-23N along 50W. 
Scattered showers are within 120 nm E of the trough. A 1039 mb 
high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N33W.

The front will continue SE and stall from N of Puerto Rico to 
near the Windward Passage by Wed evening. Strong winds will 
develop between the front and 25N on Tue as strong high pressure 
builds north of the front. These winds will persist until Thu as 
the strong high following the front slowly shifts E over the 
western Atlc north of the area. Another strong cold front will 
move off the Florida coast on Thu afternoon. Gales will be 
possible along the front N of 30N. The front will reach from near 
31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba Fri afternoon, 
then from near 31N69W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Fri 
night. Strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow in the 
wake of the front.

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