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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 130602

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.


...STORM WARNING in the Gulf of Mexico...

A strong cold front is moving eastward over the Gulf of Mexico,
and at 03Z extends from 30N89W to 22N94W to 21N97W. By Tue 
morning, this front will extend from the W Florida Panhandle to 
western Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds are over the NW Gulf 
behind the front, with storm force winds developing offshore of 
Veracruz Tue morning through mid afternoon. The front will then 
reach from near Apalachee Bay Florida to the northern Yucatan 
Peninsula early Wed, and move SE of the Gulf early Thu. Winds and 
seas will then gradually decrease through the end of the week. 
Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. 


An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 58W from 14N 
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
E of the wave axis from 15N-20N between 52W-56W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N-14N between 
44W-54W. Isolated moderate convection is also just E of the 
Windward Islands from 09N-11N between 59W-61W. 

A surface trough is over the Leeward Islands from 21N59W to
14N62W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the Leeward 
Islands is from 15N-18N between 59W-62W. Similar convection is
over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico from 18N-20N between
63W-67W. The potential for this trough to become a tropical or 
subtropical cyclone continues to decrease. This system is 
forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the 
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next
few days.


The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 09N13W to 08N17W, 
then transitions to ITCZ from that point to 04N30W to 05N52W. 
Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ
axis E of 43W. 


A cold front is over the NW Gulf. See the Special Feature section
above. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm of the 
front. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the 
Straits of Florida from 23N-24N between 82W-84W. 


See the Tropical Wave section for details on the surface trough
over the Leeward Islands. An upper-level low is located over the 
Virgin Islands near 18N63W. This upper-level low could also be 
helping to enhance showers and thunderstorms in the area.

In the far southwest Caribbean, scattered moderate/isolated 
strong convection is noted south of 10N between 77W-83W, and over
portions of Panama, due to the East Pacific monsoon trough. 

High pressure N of the area will support pulses of fresh to 
strong winds across the Windward Passage, over the adjacent waters
of the SW Dominican Republic, and along the coast of Colombia 
through Tue. A strong cold front will bring fresh to strong N 
winds and seas to 10 ft into the Yucatan Channel and the NW 
Caribbean Wed night through Thu night. 


A stationary front enters the forecast area just off the southeast 
US coast near 32N80W to the Georgia coast near 31N81W to near the 
Florida/Georgia border near 31N83W where it becomes a warm front 
that continues westward. Also in the area, an E-W surface trough 
is analyzed along 28N between 73W and Cape Canaveral Florida. 
Satellite imagery and Doppler radar data show scattered showers 
and thunderstorms from 28N-32N, west of 77W.

Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near 40N66W, and another 1028
mb high centered near 32N33W.

The front off the southeast US coast will drift north of the area
tonight. The next cold front will move off the southeast US coast
by late Wed, reaching from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and
central Cuba late Thu night into Fri.

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