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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 240853

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
453 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N12W to near 
02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 01S30W to the coast of 
Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is S of the monsoon trough from 01N-10N between 02W-
06W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along 
the monsoon trough from 02N-05N between 15W-20W. Scattered 
moderate convection is S of the ITCZ from 03S-07S between 20W-
36W. Isolated moderate convection is N of the ITCZ from 01S-04N 
between 40W-51W. 


Scattered showers are over the NW Gulf of Mexico N of 26N and W of
88W. A 1018 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 30N85W. 
05-20 kt SE surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico with weakest
winds over the NE Gulf, and strongest winds along the coast of 
the Yucatan Peninsula. 

High pressure across the area will retreat eastward ahead of a 
cold front moving into the northwest Gulf Thu. The front will 
reach the far eastern Gulf by Fri evening, where it will become 
stationary and weaken to a trough Sat. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are expected with this frontal system. 


A 1009 mb low is centered over Lake Maracaibo Venezuela near 
10N72W. Isolated moderate convection is over N Colombia and NW 
Venezuela. Scattered showers are over the S Caribbean S of 13N 
and E of 74W. More scattered showers are over the Mona Channel and
E Hispaniola. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with
strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper 
levels, strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean Sea. 

Moderate to fresh trade winds across the south central and 
eastern Caribbean will slowly diminish as high pressure north of 
the area weakens. 


A 1019 mb high is off the coast of N Florida near 30N78W. A 
dissipating stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N67W to
25N69W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1012 
mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N50W. A
surface trough extends S from the low to 21N53W. Scattered 
moderate convection is well E of the low from 27N-31N between 41W-

The dissipating stationary front will fully dissipate today. The 
central Atlantic low will move to 32N50W over the next 24 hours. 
The next cold front will move off the southeastern United States 
coast by Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with 
gusty winds, are expected to affect much of the area north of 27N 
Friday through late Saturday.

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