000
AXNT20 KNHC 070817
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed May 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic at the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 06.5N24W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N24.5W to 07N35W to the coast of French Guiana 
at 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 01S to
03N between 03W and 12.5W, from 00N to 04N between 15W and 22W,
from 00N to 05N between 26W and 32W, and from 05N to 08N between
38W and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak surface ridge extends across the southeastern United States
from the Atlantic while a broad area of low pressure over east-
central Mexico covers the western half of the basin. The resultant
pressure gradient between these two features is supporting fresh 
to locally strong SE winds W of 87W and gentle to moderate SE 
winds elsewhere. In the northern Gulf, a stationary front 
extending from SE Georgia to southern Louisiana to southern Texas 
is generating scattered heavy showers and tstms mainly over the 
coastal waters from the Florida Panhandle to near Corpus Christi,
Texas. Seas are 5 to 8 ft W of 87W and 2 to 5 ft E of 87W, except
3 ft or less over the eastern Gulf coastal waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the SE United States and low pressure over Mexico will 
support fresh to locally strong winds over the W half of the 
basin. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Winds will
weaken across the basin Thu as the next front approaches, 
currently stalled just inland over SE Texas. The front will reach 
across the western zones Thu night, from SE Louisiana to Veracruz,
Mexico by early Fri, from the western Florida Panhandle to the 
eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sat, then from the Florida Big 
Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula early Sun. Smoke from agricultural 
fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy conditions in some 
sections of the western Gulf, with the lowest reported visibility 
near the SW Gulf coast. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A broad area of low pressure SSE of Bermuda is allowing the
continuation of a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean,
which is resulting in gentle to moderate trade winds across most 
of the Caribbean, except for localized fresh winds near the Gulf 
of Honduras, through the Windward Passage, and the lee side of 
Cuba. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the most of the basin, except 4 
to 6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage. 
Otherwise, isolated showers are occurring over the NE Caribbean 
due to the proximity of a surface trough from the east, and in the
SW Caribbean near and along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will 
pulse north of Honduras, fresh to strong speeds nightly through 
Fri night. Unsettled weather is expected to continue over the 
eastern Caribbean through mid-week. Winds will pulse to fresh 
nightly near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades and 
slight to moderate seas are expected over the remainder of the 
basin through Fri, including in the Tropical N Atlantic, before 
increasing slightly this weekend. Winds will start to increase to 
fresh in the central Caribbean and off Colombia Fri night, then to
fresh to strong Sat through the remainder of the upcoming weekend
as the pressure gradient tightens. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The pressure gradient between a low centered near 28N64W with 
associated trough and high pressure centered over the central 
Atlantic is supporting fresh to locally strong northeast winds and
moderate to rough seas north and northeast of the low. Scattered
heavy showers and tstms are also associated with the low and 
affecting mainly the waters north of 25N between 58W and 66W.
Another surface trough east of the Leeward Islands is supporting 
similar shower activity from 15N to 23N between 50W and 61W. 
Otherwise, a broad surface ridge covers the remainder central and 
eastern subtropical waters with a pair of remnant frontal troughs 
north of 27N between 20W and 48W. Aside from the area of low 
pressure SSE of Bermuda mentioned above, winds are moderate or 
weaker elsewhere, except locally fresh near the frontal troughs 
and near the Windward Passage, with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the marine conditions associated
with the central Atlantic low will gradually shift westward 
through mid-week as the low and trough drift westward. Winds and 
seas will start to decrease tonight as the low and trough start to
weaken. A stationary front along and just offshore the 
southeastern U.S. coast will gradually lift back northwest as warm
front through mid-week, then may slowly push offshore again at 
the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. 

$$
Lewitsky