000
AXNT20 KNHC 180407
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jun 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0407 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23.5W, south of 14N, 
moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N to 10.5N between 20W and 26W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42.5W, south of 12N, 
moving westward at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is noted 
near the tropical wave at this time. 

Another tropical wave is along 57W, south of 14N. This wave has
been relocated based on satellite imagery and wave diagnostics. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 56W
and 61W. 

The western Caribbean tropical wave has dissipated. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14.5N17W and 
continues southwestward to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends from 09N25W 
to 06N39W, resuming near 06N44W then terminating at 07N53W. 
Scattered showers are along the ITCZ. Other convection is 
described above in the TROPICAL WAVES section.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers are evident in the Bay of Campeche near a
surface trough and along the north-central and eastern Gulf 
coasts. Otherwise, strong ridging continues to dominate the Gulf 
waters, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds and slight seas, 
except for locally fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will 
pulse each afternoon and evening through the next several days 
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche 
as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the 
region. Otherwise, surface ridging extending across most of the 
basin from the western Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh S 
to SE winds and moderate seas over the central and western Gulf 
through Sat night. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight 
seas are forecast to prevail across the eastern half of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The strong subtropical Atlantic ridge continues to force fresh to
strong trades across the central Caribbean, with rough seas. Winds
are also pulsing to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail. Scattered 
moderate convection is depicted over the western Carribbean. 
While, light showers are depicted over the central and eastern 
Caribbean in association with a deep later through. 

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force easterly winds and 
rough seas to 11 ft are forecast across the central and portions 
of the SW Caribbean through the weekend due to a prevalent 
Atlantic subtropical ridge extending southward into the northern 
Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the Gulf of 
Honduras through Thu the Bermuda High builds. Rough seas are 
possible in the Gulf of Honduras and other portions of the NW 
Caribbean tonight through Wed night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for information regarding 
tropical waves moving across the Atlantic.

The expansive subtropical ridge continues to dominate the entire
tropical Atlantic basin. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are
found between 47W and the Lesser Antilles and north of Hispaniola.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds 
are forecast south of 24N through the weekend as a broad 
subtropical Atlantic ridge prevails. Locally strong winds will 
pulse just north of Hispaniola at night into late week as the 
Bermuda High builds. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail 
offshore of NE Florida through Thu associated with a surface 
trough extending along the eastern United States. 

$$
KRV