788 
AXNT20 KNHC 230358
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 30W south of 19N moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 05N to 
10N between 28W and 35W.

Another tropical wave has its axis along 50W south of 19N moving 
westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with
this feature at this time.

A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles, with axis along 62W 
south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is 
limited near the wave axis at this time.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 84W south of 
21N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance 
convection over parts of Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa 
near 20N17W and continues southwestward to 07N35W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N35W to 07N45W. Aside from the convection described
in the section above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Elsewhere, a surface ridge continues to dominate the 
Gulf waters, anchored by 1018 mb high pressure located near 
25N95W. This pattern is supporting light to gentle winds and 
slight seas, except for gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft 
seas over the Bay of Campeche east of the trough in that area.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over the
basin into late next week, leading to gentle to moderate winds
and generally slight seas. A surface trough will generate fresh
winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early
evenings, which will pressure further offshore through the Bay
of Campeche during the overnight hours. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south-
central Caribbean. Seas up to 8 ft are with these trades as noted
in recent altimeter data. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate 
seas are elsewhere, except in the NW Caribbean where light to 
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support 
fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the south-central 
Caribbean through next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh 
trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle 
winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. A weak tropical
wave just west of the Lesser Antilles will move across the basin 
during the upcoming week. Another weak tropical wave will enter 
the eastern Caribbean Mon night and reach the western part of the 
basin late in the week. Yet, another tropical wave may approach 
the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on Wed and move
across the eastern Caribbean Thu and Thu night. The gradient 
associated with these waves will lead to periods of enhanced winds
after their passages. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 mb high pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda 
near 28N74W dominates the western Atlantic west of 60W. A surface
trough extends from 31N79W to 24N79W. Showers and thunderstorms 
are associated with this trough. Satellite derived wind data 
indicate mainly gentle to moderate winds on either side of the 
trough axis. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 
ft are noted off Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including approaches
to the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail elsewhere W of 60W. Farther east, a weak 
1018 mb low pressure is located near 30N59W. A trough extends 
from the low center to near 28N61W based on scatterometer data. 
Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are ahead of these
features. The remainder of the forecast area in under the 
influence of broad 1028 mb high pressure centered north of the 
region near 35N42W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh 
NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas across the basin, with the 
exception of fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas from 19N
to 23N E of 22W to the coasts of Mauritania and Western Sahara. A
cold front is approaching the Madeira Islands. Some shower 
activity is along the frontal boundary.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low will drift westward
on Sun, then accelerate northward early next week. Otherwise, 
high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of 23N through
the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades will prevail, 
with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore Hispaniola and
into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of a tropical 
wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the 
Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the 
northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE 
portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters. 

$$
ERA