AXNT20 KNHC 191208 CCA
Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
808 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019
Corrected typos in Monsoon trough/ITCZ paragraph
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Far East Atlantic Gale Warning: Winds are likely nearing gale NE
conditions off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir.
Expect N to NE winds to increase to gale force in Agadir around
1200 UTC today. Near gales will spread to the marine zone
Canarias. Near gales to gales are expected to persist in Agadir on
Monday. For more information, please see the latest forecast from
Meteo France at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
The monsoon trough exits the coast of West Africa near 09N13W and
extends to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the
coast of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is located from 00N to 07N between 04W and 22W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from
02S to 02N west of 43W to the coast of Brazil.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A ridge of high pressure roughly extends along 30N across the
Gulf. A medium-strength pressure gradient between the ridge and a
1004 mb low over central Mexico are producing SE moderate breeze
conditions, as observed by a scatterometer pass and several ships
and oil platforms. No substantial deep convection is observed over
the Gulf of Mexico this evening, though some showers are
occurring over Florida Bay.
The gradient between a ridge across the northern Gulf and lower
pressures in northern Texas will support strong SE to S winds and
building seas over the western Gulf Mon night and Tue.
Smoke and haze from fires in Mexico continue to reduce visibility
west of about 91W, with recently observed visibilities as low as
3 to 5 miles primarily over coastal locations in Mexico. This
reduced visibility may continue during the next several days.
A medium-strength pressure gradient due to 1021 mb Bermuda High
near 31N67W and low pressure over NE South America is producing
generally light to moderate tradewinds across the Caribbean Sea
this evening. The exceptions are the strong E to SE winds over the
Gulf of Honduras and the strong NE to E winds north of Colombia.
Isolated moderate convection is present between Jamaica and Cuba
and between Haiti and Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is occurring over the SW Caribbean Sea.
Fresh to occasionally strong trades are expected across most of
the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Expect
thunderstorms and rainfall to increase during the next few days
for the SW Caribbean south of 14N west of 75W, and over portions
of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
Smoke and haze from fires in the Yucatan of Mexico, Guatemala,
Belize, and Honduras may reduce visibilities in the Gulf of
Honduras during the next several days.
A stationary cold front extends from 32N50W to 24N65W. Scattered
moderate convection is present within 180 nm east of the front
north of 27N and scattered showers are present within 120 nm of
the front south of 27N. A surface trough is located east of the
Bahamas from 21N70W to 25N69W, forced in part by divergence from
an upper-level low north of the Bahamas. Isolated moderate
convection is present over the Bahamas. The stationary front
bisects an elongated E-W ridge extending from the NE Florida coast
to a 1021 mb Bermuda High near 31N67W to a 1025 mb Azores High
near 35N29W. Due to a weak to medium-strength N-S pressure
gradient, the tradewinds are generally fresh to moderate. A large
pressure gradient between the Azores High and low pressure over
the Saharan Desert is causing strong winds off of NW Africa. See
Special Features section above for more details.
The aforementioned stationary front in the W Atlantic will weaken
and dissipate later today. Moderate trade winds are expected
across most of the region as high pressure remains in place
through early next week. An area of low pressure is expected to
form from the surface trough well to the east of the Bahamas and
several hundred miles south or southwest of Bermuda by early next
week. Gradual development of this system into a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is possible during the early and middle part
of next week while it moves northward or northeastward. Please see
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information at
For additional information please