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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 270001

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.


A very strong cold front is currently moving across the Gulf of 
Mexico. Currently, the front extends from the Florida Big Bend to
the central Bay of Campeche. Recent scatterometer data depicts 
strong to gale force winds behind the front, while the stations 
in Tampico and Veracruz are reporting sustained winds of 35 kt 
with gusts to 45 kt. Storm conditions have started offshore 
Veracruz this evening and continue through late tonight. The 
front is forecast to reach from Ft Myers, FL to the Yucatan 
Peninsula this evening with a large area of gale force winds 
behind it, and seas of 15 to 18 ft over the SW Gulf. The front is
expected to move SE of the area tonight. High pressure will build
in the wake of the front across the Gulf waters with winds and 
seas gradually diminishing by Thu.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC 
or at website for 
further details.


The strong cold front now moving across the Gulf of Mexico is 
forecast to enter the NW Caribbean tonight.  Heavy rainfall will 
likely affect northern Honduras and NE Nicaragua Thursday 
through Saturday in association with the frontal boundary. The 
heavy rain in Honduras could lead to significant flash flooding 
and mudslides. Locally heavy rain is also forecast through 
Thursday in north-central Guatemala and over the southeastern 
portions of the Mexican state of Veracruz and northern Chiapas. 
However, the greatest threat for flooding is over northern 
Honduras, where persistent northerly flow will bring abundant 
moisture. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or 
national meteorological service for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 04N19W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N19W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 120 nm on either sides of the ITCZ between 25W-45W. 


Refer to the section above for details on the Storm and Gale 
Warnings in effect for the basin.

A cold front extends from 30N84W to 24N88W to 18N94W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted along the front. Surface 
ridging is building in the wake of the front across the basin. To
the east, a 1012 mb surface low is centered near 28N82W, with a 
trough extending northeast from 31N78W. 

The front will quickly move east-southeast across the remainder 
of the eastern Gulf tonight to southeast of the area by late 
tonight. The storm/gale conditions will gradually diminish 
through Thu night as the high pressure builds across the basin and 
shifts eastward to the NE Gulf by the weekend. Prior to that, 
another cold front will sweep across the NE Gulf Fri night and 
Sat. The high pressure will shift to east of NE Florida by Mon 
afternoon. This will allow for fresh to strong return flow to 
develop over the western Gulf beginning late Sat and spreading to 
the central Gulf by early next week.


High pressure north and east of the Caribbean, in combination 
with low pressure in South America, will maintain strong northeast
to east winds pulsing each night through the weekend off the 
coast of Colombian. The cold front that is currently over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, will enter the NW Caribbean tonight. The 
front will become stationary this weekend, extending from 
Hispaniola to Costa Rica. Fresh to strong N winds are expected in 
the wake of the front across the Caribbean during the weekend.


A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low centered over 28N82W
to 31N77W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the
trough over the west Atlantic mainly west of 77W. To the east, a
1024 mb high is centered near 31N57W. A stationary front extends
from 31N43W to 24N48W to 23N57W. A 1014 mb low has developed south
of the front near 19N57W, with trough extending from the low to
13N63W. Scattered showers are noted with the low. A surface trough
extends from 25N39W to 17N40W with no significant convection
associated to it.

Strong SW winds are expected over NE of the Bahamas tonight, in 
advance of a cold front that will move off the SE U.S. this 
evening. Strong NW wind are forecast behind the front across the
west Atlantic on Thu. The front will slow down as it moves E of 
the Turks and Caicos Islands and into Hispaniola into the weekend.
It is likely that a reinforcing cold front may bring strong NW 
winds to the areas that are to the north of 25N during the 
upcoming weekend.