752 
AXNT20 KNHC 190412
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jun 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0412 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is in the E Atlantic along 29W from 04N to 
15N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted from 06N to 09N between 26W and 37W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic has an axis along 46W 
from 04N to 15W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection associated with this wave extends from 06N to 08N 
between 38W and 51W. 

A tropical wave over the E Caribbean has been relocated based on
observations and is now along 63W S of 17N into Venezuela. 
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 12N to 16N between
59W and 67W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the W coast of
Africa near 13N17W and continues WSW to 07N34W. There are two
segments of ITCZ, separated by an Atlantic tropical wave 
described in the above section. These segments are noted from 
07N33W to 07N43W, then from 06N48W to 06N53W. Aside from the 
convection associated with the tropical waves, a cluster of 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N E 
of 21W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Upper level divergence associated with Eastern Pacific Major 
Hurricane Erick, is supporting numerous moderate to scattered 
moderate convection across the Bay of Campeche. Recent wind 
derived satellite observations revealed 40 kt winds withing the 
strongest convection. Scattered moderate convection is depicted 
over the offshore waters, south of Tampa, FL in association to a 
surface trough over the Florida Peninsula. Overall, the winds in 
the Gulf are being dominated by subtropical ridging centered in 
the SW Atlantic, leading to gentle winds in the NE basin, and 
moderate to fresh SE winds in the southern and western basin. Seas
in NE half of the basin are less than 3 ft, with 3 to 6 ft seas 
elsewhere outside of convection.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will
pulse each afternoon and evening over the next several days north
of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a 
diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. 
Moderate to fresh southerly return flow and moderate seas are 
expected over the central and western Gulf through Sun night. 
Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas are forecast 
to prevail across the eastern half of the basin under a broad 
subtropical ridge. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
about a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean. 

A broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic 
continues to support strong easterly trade winds over the central 
Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Fresh to strong 
easterly winds and seas of 7-9 ft are also ongoing in the Gulf of 
Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes and 
moderate seas are prevalent in the eastern and NW Caribbean. 
Scattered moderate convection is occurring over portions of the 
western Caribbean W of 77W in association with upper level 
divergence from Eastern Pacific Hurricane Erick. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge over the 
Atlantic waters north of the Caribbean and the Colombian low will 
support fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas to 13 ft 
over the central Caribbean through the the remainder of the week 
and the weekend. Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia 
at night. Fresh to strong trades, and rough seas, are expected in 
the Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh 
winds and moderate seas will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
about the tropical waves moving across the Atlantic. 

A broad ridge centered along 27N continues to dominate the entire
subtropical and tropical Atlantic waters. Fresh to locally strong
easterly winds and seas to 7 ft are noted off northern Hispaniola
and at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh 
easterly trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft dominate waters S of 20N, 
with moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas to the 
N. Fresh to strong winds are found off the coast of Dakar and near
the Canary Islands. 

For the forecast west of 55W, ridge of high pressure will prevail
along 29N. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to
locally rough seas are forecast south of the ridge through the 
forecast period. Locally strong winds will pulse just north of 
Hispaniola at night into late this week. Gentle to locally 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. 

$$
KRV